Learning Graphical Models
ManiVID-3D: Generalizable View-Invariant Reinforcement Learning for Robotic Manipulation via Disentangled 3D Representations
Li, Zheng, Qu, Pei, Jia, Yufei, Zhou, Shihui, Ge, Haizhou, Cao, Jiahang, Zhou, Jinni, Zhou, Guyue, Ma, Jun
Deploying visual reinforcement learning (RL) policies in real-world manipulation is often hindered by camera viewpoint changes. A policy trained from a fixed front-facing camera may fail when the camera is shifted--an unavoidable situation in real-world settings where sensor placement is hard to manage appropriately. Existing methods often rely on precise camera calibration or struggle with large perspective changes. To address these limitations, we propose ManiVID-3D, a novel 3D RL architecture designed for robotic manipulation, which learns view-invariant representations through self-supervised disentangled feature learning. The framework incorporates ViewNet, a lightweight yet effective module that automatically aligns point cloud observations from arbitrary viewpoints into a unified spatial coordinate system without the need for extrinsic calibration. Additionally, we develop an efficient GPU-accelerated batch rendering module capable of processing over 5000 frames per second, enabling large-scale training for 3D visual RL at unprecedented speeds. Extensive evaluation across 10 simulated and 5 real-world tasks demonstrates that our approach achieves a 44.7% higher success rate than state-of-the-art methods under viewpoint variations while using 80% fewer parameters. The system's robustness to severe perspective changes and strong sim-to-real performance highlight the effectiveness of learning geometrically consistent representations for scalable robotic manipulation in unstructured environments. Our project website can be found in https://zheng-joe-lee.github.io/manivid3d/.
GCN-TULHOR: Trajectory-User Linking Leveraging GCNs and Higher-Order Spatial Representations
Tran, Khoa, Gupta, Pranav, Papagelis, Manos
Trajectory-user linking (TUL) aims to associate anonymized trajectories with the users who generated them, which is crucial for personalized recommendations, privacy-preserving analytics, and secure location-based services. Existing methods struggle with sparse data, incomplete routes, and limited modeling of complex spatial dependencies, often relying on low-level check-in data or ignoring spatial patterns. In this paper, we introduced GCN-TULHOR, a method that transforms raw location data into higher-order mobility flow representations using hexagonal tessellation, reducing data sparsity and capturing richer spatial semantics, and integrating Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs). Our approach converts both sparse check-in and continuous GPS trajectory data into unified higher-order flow representations, mitigating sparsity while capturing deeper semantic information. The GCN layer explicitly models complex spatial relationships and non-local dependencies without requiring side information such as timestamps or points of interest. Experiments on six real-world datasets show consistent improvements over classical baselines, RNN- and Transformer-based models, and the TULHOR method in accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. GCN-TULHOR achieves 1-8% relative gains in accuracy and F1. Sensitivity analysis identifies an optimal setup with a single GCN layer and 512-dimensional embeddings. The integration of GCNs enhances spatial learning and improves generalizability across mobility data. This work highlights the value of combining graph-based spatial learning with sequential modeling, offering a robust and scalable solution for TUL with applications in recommendations, urban planning, and security.
Parameter estimation with uncertainty quantification from continuous measurement data using neural network ensembles
We show that ensembles of deep neural networks, called deep ensembles, can be used to perform quantum parameter estimation while also providing a means for quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates, which is a key advantage of using Bayesian inference for parameter estimation. These models are shown to be more robust to noise in the measurement results used to perform the parameter estimation as well as noise in the data used to train them. We also show that much less data is needed to achieve comparable performance to Bayesian inference based estimation, which is known to reach the ultimate precision limit as more data is collected, than was used in previous proposals.
Kalman Bayesian Transformer
Jing, Haoming, Wright, Oren, Moura, José M. F., Nakahira, Yorie
Sequential fine-tuning of transformers is useful when new data arrive sequentially, especially with shifting distributions. Unlike batch learning, sequential learning demands that training be stabilized despite a small amount of data by balancing new information and previously learned knowledge in the pre-trained models. This challenge is further complicated when training is to be completed in latency-critical environments and learning must additionally quantify and be mediated by uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges, we propose a novel method that frames sequential fine-tuning as a posterior inference problem within a Bayesian framework. Our approach integrates closed-form moment propagation of random variables, Kalman Bayesian Neural Networks, and Taylor approximations of the moments of softmax functions. By explicitly accounting for pre-trained models as priors and adaptively balancing them against new information based on quantified uncertainty, our method achieves robust and data-efficient sequential learning. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through numerical simulations involving sequential adaptation of a decision transformer to tasks characterized by distribution shifts and limited memory resources.
Large Foundation Models for Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving: A Comprehensive Survey
Dai, Wei, Wu, Shengen, Wu, Wei, Wang, Zhenhao, Lyu, Sisuo, Liao, Haicheng, Yu, Limin, Ding, Weiping, Guan, Runwei, Yue, Yutao
Trajectory prediction serves as a critical functionality in autonomous driving, enabling the anticipation of future motion paths for traffic participants such as vehicles and pedestrians, which is essential for driving safety. Although conventional deep learning methods have improved accuracy, they remain hindered by inherent limitations, including lack of interpretability, heavy reliance on large-scale annotated data, and weak generalization in long-tail scenarios. The rise of Large Foundation Models (LFMs) is transforming the research paradigm of trajectory prediction. This survey offers a systematic review of recent advances in LFMs, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) for trajectory prediction. By integrating linguistic and scene semantics, LFMs facilitate interpretable contextual reasoning, significantly enhancing prediction safety and generalization in complex environments. The article highlights three core methodologies: trajectory-language mapping, multimodal fusion, and constraint-based reasoning. It covers prediction tasks for both vehicles and pedestrians, evaluation metrics, and dataset analyses. Key challenges such as computational latency, data scarcity, and real-world robustness are discussed, along with future research directions including low-latency inference, causality-aware modeling, and motion foundation models.
Adaptive Temporal Fusion Transformers for Cryptocurrency Price Prediction
Peik, Arash, Chahooki, Mohammad Ali Zare, Fard, Amin Milani, Sarram, Mehdi Agha
Precise short-term price prediction in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is critical for informed trading strategies. Although Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) have shown potential, their direct use often struggles in the face of the market's non-stationary nature and extreme volatility. This paper introduces an adaptive TFT modeling approach leveraging dynamic subseries lengths and pattern-based categorization to enhance short-term forecasting. We propose a novel segmentation method where subseries end at relative maxima, identified when the price increase from the preceding minimum surpasses a threshold, thus capturing significant upward movements, which act as key markers for the end of a growth phase, while potentially filtering the noise. Crucially, the fixed-length pattern ending each subseries determines the category assigned to the subsequent variable-length subseries, grouping typical market responses that follow similar preceding conditions. A distinct TFT model trained for each category is specialized in predicting the evolution of these subsequent subseries based on their initial steps after the preceding peak. Experimental results on ETH-USDT 10-minute data over a two-month test period demonstrate that our adaptive approach significantly outperforms baseline fixed-length TFT and LSTM models in prediction accuracy and simulated trading profitability. Our combination of adaptive segmentation and pattern-conditioned forecasting enables more robust and responsive cryptocurrency price prediction.
Contextuality, Holonomy and Discrete Fiber Bundles in Group-Valued Boltzmann Machines
We propose a geometric extension of restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) by allowing weights to take values in abstract groups such as \( \mathrm{GL}_n(\mathbb{R}) \), \( \mathrm{SU}(2) \), or even infinite-dimensional operator groups. This generalization enables the modeling of complex relational structures, including projective transformations, spinor dynamics, and functional symmetries, with direct applications to vision, language, and quantum learning. A central contribution of this work is the introduction of a \emph{contextuality index} based on group-valued holonomies computed along cycles in the RBM graph. This index quantifies the global inconsistency or "curvature" induced by local weights, generalizing classical notions of coherence, consistency, and geometric flatness. We establish links with sheaf-theoretic contextuality, gauge theory, and noncommutative geometry, and provide numerical and diagrammatic examples in both finite and infinite dimensions. This framework opens novel directions in AI, from curvature-aware learning architectures to topological regularization in uncertain or adversarial environments.
A Service-Oriented Adaptive Hierarchical Incentive Mechanism for Federated Learning
Cao, Jiaxing, Gao, Yuzhou, Huang, Jiwei
Recently, federated learning (FL) has emerged as a novel framework for distributed model training. In FL, the task publisher (TP) releases tasks, and local model owners (LMOs) use their local data to train models. Sometimes, FL suffers from the lack of training data, and thus workers are recruited for gathering data. To this end, this paper proposes an adaptive incentive mechanism from a service-oriented perspective, with the objective of maximizing the utilities of TP, LMOs and workers. Specifically, a Stackelberg game is theoretically established between the LMOs and TP, positioning TP as the leader and the LMOs as followers. An analytical Nash equilibrium solution is derived to maximize their utilities. The interaction between LMOs and workers is formulated by a multi-agent Markov decision process (MAMDP), with the optimal strategy identified via deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Additionally, an Adaptively Searching the Optimal Strategy Algorithm (ASOSA) is designed to stabilize the strategies of each participant and solve the coupling problems. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to validate the efficacy of the proposed method.
A Convolution and Attention Based Encoder for Reinforcement Learning under Partial Observability
B. Observation History The core contribution of this work is a novel history encoder for processing historical observations, which integrates two key operations: depthwise separable convolution and multi-head attention. The background of these operations is briefly reviewed below. Depthwise separable convolution [33] is a streamlined variant of standard convolution that reduces both parameter count and computational cost. It decomposes the operation into two steps: (1) a depthwise convolution, which applies a single filter to each input channel, and (2) a pointwise convolution, which uses a 1 1 convolution to linearly combine the outputs of the depthwise stage. This factorization enables efficient extraction of spatial and cross-channel features while maintaining strong representational capacity. It has been widely adopted in lightweight neural architectures such as MobileNet [34] and is particularly well suited to real-time and resource-constrained applications. Multi-head attention [9] is a fundamental component of Transformer architectures, enabling the model to capture diverse patterns across different representation subspaces.
A Computable Measure of Suboptimality for Entropy-Regularised Variational Objectives
Chazal, Clémentine, Kanagawa, Heishiro, Shen, Zheyang, Korba, Anna, Oates, Chris. J.
Several emerging post-Bayesian methods target a probability distribution for which an entropy-regularised variational objective is minimised. This increased flexibility introduces a computational challenge, as one loses access to an explicit unnormalised density for the target. To mitigate this difficulty, we introduce a novel measure of suboptimality called 'gradient discrepancy', and in particular a 'kernel gradient discrepancy' (KGD) that can be explicitly computed. In the standard Bayesian context, KGD coincides with the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), and we obtain a novel charasterisation of KSD as measuring the size of a variational gradient. Outside this familiar setting, KGD enables novel sampling algorithms to be developed and compared, even when unnormalised densities cannot be obtained. To illustrate this point several novel algorithms are proposed, including a natural generalisation of Stein variational gradient descent, with applications to mean-field neural networks and prediction-centric uncertainty quantification presented. On the theoretical side, our principal contribution is to establish sufficient conditions for desirable properties of KGD, such as continuity and convergence control.