Inference in semi-supervised (SS) settings has gained substantial attention in recent years due to increased relevance in modern big-data problems. In a typical SS setting, there is a much larger-sized unlabeled data, containing only observations of predictors, and a moderately sized labeled data containing observations for both an outcome and the set of predictors. Such data naturally arises when the outcome, unlike the predictors, is costly or difficult to obtain. One of the primary statistical objectives in SS settings is to explore whether parameter estimation can be improved by exploiting the unlabeled data. We propose a novel Bayesian method for estimating the population mean in SS settings. The approach yields estimators that are both efficient and optimal for estimation and inference. The method itself has several interesting artifacts. The central idea behind the method is to model certain summary statistics of the data in a targeted manner, rather than the entire raw data itself, along with a novel Bayesian notion of debiasing. Specifying appropriate summary statistics crucially relies on a debiased representation of the population mean that incorporates unlabeled data through a flexible nuisance function while also learning its estimation bias. Combined with careful usage of sample splitting, this debiasing approach mitigates the effect of bias due to slow rates or misspecification of the nuisance parameter from the posterior of the final parameter of interest, ensuring its robustness and efficiency. Concrete theoretical results, via Bernstein--von Mises theorems, are established, validating all claims, and are further supported through extensive numerical studies. To our knowledge, this is possibly the first work on Bayesian inference in SS settings, and its central ideas also apply more broadly to other Bayesian semi-parametric inference problems.

In this work, we offer a thorough analytical investigation into the role of shared hyperparameters in a hierarchical Bayesian model, examining their impact on information borrowing and posterior inference. Our approach is rooted in a non-asymptotic framework, where observations are drawn from a mixed-effects model, and a Gaussian distribution is assumed for the true effect generator. We consider a nested hierarchical prior distribution model to capture these effects and use the posterior means for Bayesian estimation. To quantify the effect of information borrowing, we propose an integrated risk measure relative to the true data-generating distribution. Our analysis reveals that the Bayes estimator for the model with a deeper hierarchy performs better, provided that the unknown random effects are correlated through a compound symmetric structure. Our work also identifies necessary and sufficient conditions for this model to outperform the one nested within it. We further obtain sufficient conditions when the correlation is perturbed. Our study suggests that the model with a deeper hierarchy tends to outperform the nested model unless the true data-generating distribution favors sufficiently independent groups. These findings have significant implications for Bayesian modeling, and we believe they will be of interest to researchers across a wide range of fields.

Recent advances have significantly improved our understanding of the sample complexity of learning in average-reward Markov decision processes (AMDPs) under the generative model. However, much less is known about the constrained average-reward MDP (CAMDP), where policies must satisfy long-run average constraints. In this work, we address this gap by studying the sample complexity of learning an $ε$-optimal policy in CAMDPs under a generative model. We propose a model-based algorithm that operates under two settings: (i) relaxed feasibility, which allows small constraint violations, and (ii) strict feasibility, where the output policy satisfies the constraint. We show that our algorithm achieves sample complexities of $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{S A (B+H)}{ ε^2}\right)$ and $\tilde{O} \left(\frac{S A (B+H)}{ε^2 ζ^2} \right)$ under the relaxed and strict feasibility settings, respectively. Here, $ζ$ is the Slater constant indicating the size of the feasible region, $H$ is the span bound of the bias function, and $B$ is the transient time bound. Moreover, a matching lower bound of $\tildeΩ\left(\frac{S A (B+H)}{ ε^2ζ^2}\right)$ for the strict feasibility case is established, thus providing the first minimax-optimal bounds for CAMDPs. Our results close the theoretical gap in understanding the complexity of constrained average-reward MDPs.

Care coordination and population health management (PHM) are core functions of health systems and community partners, impacting large numbers of Americans enrolled in Medicaid and other safety-net programs. These efforts aim to proactively identify needs, prioritize outreach, and escalate appropriately, all within finite staffing and budget constraints. While outreach modalities (text, phone, video, in-person) carry low clinical risk, their time and opportunity costs vary significantly, making efficiency a primary design goal. In practice, the central operational question is when to deploy expensive in-person outreach versus efficient virtual modalities to maximize value and equity under capacity constraints. These decisions must be made in strictly offline settings, where policies are learned from logged data without exploration at deployment [1]. Classical approaches include constrained Markov decision processes [2], risk-sensitive objectives, and conservative offline RL (e.g., CQL/IQL) [3, 4]. Conformal prediction can provide calibrated error control [5, 6]; ensembles provide practical uncertainty quantification [7]; and decision-time computation is common in control [8]. In health services research and health economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses (CEA/CBA) guide program-level choices [9-12], but they are not designed for per-patient, per-decision recommendations that adapt to granular state features and logged behavior constraints. 1

Clinical machine learning faces a critical dilemma in high-stakes medical applications: algorithms achieving optimal diagnostic performance typically sacrifice the interpretability essential for physician decision-making, while interpretable methods compromise sensitivity in complex scenarios. This paradox becomes particularly acute in non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT), where missed chromosomal abnormalities carry profound clinical consequences yet regulatory frameworks mandate explainable AI systems. We introduce Medical Priority Fusion (MPF), a constrained multi-objective optimization framework that resolves this fundamental trade-off by systematically integrating Naive Bayes probabilistic reasoning with Decision Tree rule-based logic through mathematically-principled weighted fusion under explicit medical constraints. Rigorous validation on 1,687 real-world NIPT samples characterized by extreme class imbalance (43.4:1 normal-to-abnormal ratio) employed stratified 5-fold cross-validation with comprehensive ablation studies and statistical hypothesis testing using McNemar's paired comparisons. MPF achieved simultaneous optimization of dual objectives: 89.3% sensitivity (95% CI: 83.9-94.7%) with 80% interpretability score, significantly outperforming individual algorithms (McNemar's test, p < 0.001). The optimal fusion configuration achieved Grade A clinical deployment criteria with large effect size (d = 1.24), establishing the first clinically-deployable solution that maintains both diagnostic accuracy and decision transparency essential for prenatal care. This work demonstrates that medical-constrained algorithm fusion can resolve the interpretability-performance trade-off, providing a mathematical framework for developing high-stakes medical decision support systems that meet both clinical efficacy and explainability requirements.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have shown promise in visual-textual reasoning, with Multimodal Chain-of-Thought (MCoT) prompting significantly enhancing interpretability. However, existing MCoT methods rely on rationale-rich datasets and largely focus on inter-object reasoning, overlooking the intra-object understanding crucial for image classification. To address this gap, we propose WISE, a Weak-supervision-guided Step-by-step Explanation method that augments any image classification dataset with MCoTs by reformulating the concept-based representations from Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) into concise, interpretable reasoning chains under weak supervision. Experiments across ten datasets show that our generated MCoTs not only improve interpretability by 37% but also lead to gains in classification accuracy when used to fine-tune MLLMs. Our work bridges concept-based interpretability and generative MCoT reasoning, providing a generalizable framework for enhancing MLLMs in fine-grained visual understanding.

In this paper, we present the first systematic comparison of Data Assimilation (DA) and Likelihood-Based Inference (LBI) in the context of Agent-Based Models (ABMs). These models generate observable time series driven by evolving, partially-latent microstates. Latent states need to be estimated to align simulations with real-world data -- a task traditionally addressed by DA, especially in continuous and equation-based models such as those used in weather forecasting. However, the nature of ABMs poses challenges for standard DA methods. Solving such issues requires adaptation of previous DA techniques, or ad-hoc alternatives such as LBI. DA approximates the likelihood in a model-agnostic way, making it broadly applicable but potentially less precise. In contrast, LBI provides more accurate state estimation by directly leveraging the model's likelihood, but at the cost of requiring a hand-crafted, model-specific likelihood function, which may be complex or infeasible to derive. We compare the two methods on the Bounded-Confidence Model, a well-known opinion dynamics ABM, where agents are affected only by others holding sufficiently similar opinions. We find that LBI better recovers latent agent-level opinions, even under model mis-specification, leading to improved individual-level forecasts. At the aggregate level, however, both methods perform comparably, and DA remains competitive across levels of aggregation under certain parameter settings. Our findings suggest that DA is well-suited for aggregate predictions, while LBI is preferable for agent-level inference.

Abstract-- The complex nonlinear dynamics of hydraulic excavators, such as time delays and control coupling, pose significant challenges to achieving high-precision trajectory tracking. Traditional control methods often fall short in such applications due to their inability to effectively handle these nonlinearities, while commonly used learning-based methods require extensive interactions with the environment, leading to inefficiency. T o address these issues, we introduce EfficientTrack, a trajectory tracking method that integrates model-based learning to manage nonlinear dynamics and leverages closed-loop dynamics to improve learning efficiency, ultimately minimizing tracking errors. Comparative experiments in simulation demonstrate that our method outperforms existing learning-based approaches, achieving the highest tracking precision and smoothness with the fewest interactions. Real-world experiments further show that our method remains effective under load conditions and possesses the ability for continual learning, highlighting its practical applicability. Excavators are primarily used in earthworks, mining, and construction projects, playing a vital role in tasks such as digging, loading, trenching, and leveling [1], [2], [3].

Leveraging machine learning methods to solve constraint satisfaction problems has shown promising, but they are mostly limited to a static situation where the problem description is completely known and fixed from the beginning. In this work we present a new approach to constraint satisfaction and optimization in dynamically changing environments, particularly when variables in the problem are statistically independent. We frame it as a reinforcement learning problem and introduce a conditional policy generator by borrowing the idea of class conditional generative adversarial networks (GANs). Assuming that the problem includes both static and dynamic constraints, the former are used in a reward formulation to guide the policy training such that it learns to map to a probabilistic distribution of solutions satisfying static constraints from a noise prior, which is similar to a generator in GANs. On the other hand, dynamic constraints in the problem are encoded to different class labels and fed with the input noise. The policy is then simultaneously updated for maximum likelihood of correctly classifying given the dynamic conditions in a supervised manner. We empirically demonstrate a proof-of-principle experiment with a multi-modal constraint satisfaction problem and compare between unconditional and conditional cases.

The integration of solar power has been increasing as the green energy transition rolls out. The penetration of solar power challenges the grid stability and energy scheduling, due to its intermittent energy generation. Accurate and near real-time solar power prediction is of critical importance to tolerant and support the permeation of distributed and volatile solar power production in the energy system. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning based ultra-short-term solar power prediction with data reconstruction. We decompose the data for the prediction to facilitate extensive exploration of the spatial and temporal dependencies within the data. Particularly, we reconstruct the data into low- and high-frequency components, using ensemble empirical model decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). We integrate meteorological data with those two components, and employ deep-learning models to capture long- and short-term dependencies towards the target prediction period. In this way, we excessively exploit the features in historical data in predicting a ultra-short-term solar power production. Furthermore, as ultra-short-term prediction is vulnerable to local optima, we modify the optimization in our deep-learning training by penalizing long prediction intervals. Numerical experiments with diverse settings demonstrate that, compared to baseline models, the proposed method achieves improved generalization in data reconstruction and higher prediction accuracy for ultra-short-term solar power production.