Statistical relationships in observed data can arise for several different reasons: the observed variables may be causally related, they may share a latent common cause, or there may be selection bias. Each of these scenarios can be modelled using different causal graphs. Not all such causal graphs, however, can be distinguished by experimental data. In this paper, we formulate the equivalence class of causal graphs as a novel graphical structure, the selected-marginalized directed graph (smDG). That is, we show that two directed acyclic graphs with latent and selected vertices have the same smDG if and only if they are indistinguishable, even when allowing for arbitrary interventions on the observed variables. As a substitute for the more familiar d-separation criterion for DAGs, we provide an analogous sound and complete separation criterion in smDGs for conditional independence relative to passive observations. Finally, we provide a series of sufficient conditions under which two causal structures are indistinguishable when there is only access to passive observations.

A central question in psycholinguistics is the timing of syntax in sentence processing. Much of the existing evidence comes from violation paradigms, which conflate two separable processes - syntactic category detection and phrase structure construction - and implicitly assume that phrase structure follows category detection. In this study, we use co-registered EEG and eye-tracking data from the ZuCo corpus to disentangle these processes and test their temporal order under naturalistic reading conditions. Analyses of gaze transitions showed that readers preferentially moved between syntactic heads, suggesting that phrase structures, rather than serial word order, organize scanpaths. Bayesian network modeling further revealed that structural depth was the strongest driver of deviations from linear reading, outweighing lexical familiarity and surprisal. Finally, fixation-related potentials demonstrated that syntactic surprisal influences neural activity before word onset (-184 to -10 ms) and during early integration (48 to 300 ms). These findings extend current models of syntactic timing by showing that phrase structure construction can precede category detection and dominate lexical influences, supporting a predictive "tree-scaffolding" account of comprehension.

Post-Training Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to build interactive agents holds promise across domains such as computer-use, web navigation, and robotics. A key challenge in scaling such post-training is lack of high-quality downstream agentic task datasets with tasks that are diverse, feasible, and verifiable. Existing approaches for task generation rely heavily on human annotation or prompting MLLM with limited downstream environment information, which is either costly or poorly scalable as it yield tasks with limited coverage. To remedy this, we present AutoPlay, a scalable pipeline for task generation that explicitly explores interactive environments to discover possible interactions and current state information to synthesize environment-grounded tasks. AutoPlay operates in two stages: (i) an exploration phase, where an MLLM explorer agent systematically uncovers novel environment states and functionalities, and (ii) a task generation phase, where a task generator leverages exploration trajectories and a set of task guideline prompts as context to synthesize diverse, executable, and verifiable tasks. We show AutoPlay generates 20k tasks across 20 Android applications and 10k tasks across 13 applications Ubuntu applications to train mobile-use and computer-use agents. AutoPlay generated tasks enable large-scale task demonstration synthesis without human annotation by employing an MLLM task executor and verifier. This data enables training MLLM-based UI agents that improve success rates up to $20.0\%$ on mobile-use and $10.9\%$ on computer-use scenarios. In addition, AutoPlay generated tasks combined with MLLM verifier-based rewards enable scaling reinforcement learning training of UI agents, leading to an additional $5.7\%$ gain. coverage. These results establish AutoPlay as a scalable approach for post-training capable MLLM agents reducing reliance on human annotation.

The current paradigm for reasoning in large language models (LLMs) involves models "thinking out loud" via a sequence of tokens, known as chain-of-thought (CoT). This approach, while effective, has several significant drawbacks. Firstly, inference requires autoregressive generation of often thousands of CoT tokens, which is slow and computationally expensive. Secondly, it constrains reasoning to the discrete space of tokens, creating an information bottleneck across reasoning steps. Thirdly, it fundamentally entangles reasoning with token generation, forcing LLMs to "think while speaking," which causes potentially short-sighted reasoning. In light of these limitations, we re-imagine reasoning in LLMs and present a new paradigm: MARCOS. In our approach, rather than autoregressively generating tokens, we model reasoning as a hidden Markov chain of continuous, high-dimensional "thoughts". Each reasoning step involves a transition of the internal thoughts, where explicit reasoning steps (which may consist of hundreds of tokens) serve as observable variables, which are windows to peek into the implicit thoughts. Since this latent process is incompatible with the standard supervised learning, we further propose a two-phase variational training scheme. Our experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that MARCOS outperforms existing continuous reasoning methods and, for the first time, achieves performance comparable to token-based CoT, even surpassing it by 4.7% on GSM8K with up to 15.7x speedup in inference. Beyond this, MARCOS offers additional advantages, such as step-level instead of token-level control over randomness, opening significant opportunities for reinforcement learning and reasoning in LLMs.

RL with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising paradigm for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). Current methods rely primarily on policy optimization frameworks like PPO and GRPO, which follow generalized policy iteration that alternates between evaluating the current policy's value and improving the policy based on evaluation. While effective, they often suffer from training instability and diversity collapse, requiring complex heuristic tricks and careful tuning. We observe that standard RLVR in math reasoning can be formalized as a specialized finite-horizon Markov Decision Process with deterministic state transitions, tree-structured dynamics, and binary terminal rewards. Though large in scale, the underlying structure is simpler than general-purpose control settings for which popular RL algorithms (e.g., PPO) were developed, suggesting that several sophisticated techniques in existing methods may be reduced or even omitted. Based on this insight, we prove a surprising result: the optimal action can be recovered from the Q-function of a fixed uniformly random policy, thereby bypassing the generalized policy iteration loop and its associated heuristics. We introduce Random Policy Valuation for Diverse Reasoning (ROVER) to translate this principle into a practical and scalable algorithm for LLM math reasoning, a minimalist yet highly effective RL method that samples actions from a softmax over these uniform-policy Q-values. ROVER preserves diversity throughout training, allowing sustained exploration of multiple valid pathways. Across multiple base models and standard math reasoning benchmarks, ROVER demonstrates superior performance in both \textbf{quality} (\textbf{+8.2} on pass@1, \textbf{+16.8} on pass@256) and \textbf{diversity} (\textbf{+17.6\%}), despite its radical simplification compared to strong, complicated existing methods.

Abstract--This work introduces an adaptive Bayesian algorithm for real-time trajectory prediction via intention inference, where a target's intentions and motion characteristics are unknown and subject to change. The method concurrently estimates two critical variables: the target's current intention, modeled as a Markovian latent state, and an intention parameter that describes the target's adherence to a shortest-path policy. By integrating this joint update technique, the algorithm maintains robustness against abrupt intention shifts and unknown motion dynamics. A sampling-based trajectory prediction mechanism then exploits these adaptive estimates to generate probabilistic forecasts with quantified uncertainty. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms non-adaptive and partially adaptive methods. The method operates in real time around 270 Hz without requiring training or detailed prior knowledge of target behavior, showcasing its applicability in various robotic systems. Real-world autonomous systems such as self-driving cars, service robots, and surveillance drones frequently face intention inference tasks [1]: they must determine what another agent or human is trying to achieve and where it is likely to go next [2], [3]. These tasks are inherently challenging for several reasons. First, the target's motion dynamics are often unknown. For example, a pedestrian may switch between walking, jogging, or stopping unpredictably. Second, the agent's intention may shift during execution, such as changing to a new goal without any observable signal, i.e., in a non-cooperative fashion.

Normative and task-driven theories offer powerful top-down explanations for biological systems, yet the goals of quantitatively arbitrating between competing theories, and utilizing them as inductive biases to improve data-driven fits of real biological datasets are prohibitively laborious, and often impossible. To this end, we introduce a Bayesian meta-learning framework designed to automatically convert raw functional predictions from normative theories into tractable probabilistic models. We employ adaptive deep kernel Gaussian processes, meta-learning a kernel on synthetic data generated from a normative theory. This Theory-Informed Kernel specifies a probabilistic model representing the theory predictions -- usable for both fitting data and rigorously validating the theory. As a demonstration, we apply our framework to the early visual system, using efficient coding as our normative theory. We show improved response prediction accuracy in ex vivo recordings of mouse retinal ganglion cells stimulated by natural scenes compared to conventional data-driven baselines, while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and interpretable representations. Using exact Bayesian model selection, we also show that our informed kernel can accurately infer the degree of theory-match from data, confirming faithful encapsulation of theory structure. This work provides a more general, scalable, and automated approach for integrating theoretical knowledge into data-driven scientific inquiry in neuroscience and beyond.

A critical bottleneck in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is sample inefficiency, as training high-performance agents often demands extensive environmental interactions. Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) mitigates this by building world models that simulate environmental dynamics and generate synthetic experience, improving sample efficiency. However, conventional world models process observations holistically, failing to decouple dynamic objects and temporal features from static backgrounds. This approach is computationally inefficient, especially for visual tasks where dynamic objects significantly influence rewards and decision-making performance. To address this, we introduce DyMoDreamer, a novel MBRL algorithm that incorporates a dynamic modulation mechanism to improve the extraction of dynamic features and enrich the temporal information. DyMoDreamer employs differential observations derived from a novel inter-frame differencing mask, explicitly encoding object-level motion cues and temporal dynamics. Dynamic modulation is modeled as stochastic categorical distributions and integrated into a recurrent state-space model (RSSM), enhancing the model's focus on reward-relevant dynamics. Experiments demonstrate that DyMoDreamer sets a new state-of-the-art on the Atari $100$k benchmark with a $156.6$\% mean human-normalized score, establishes a new record of $832$ on the DeepMind Visual Control Suite, and gains a $9.5$\% performance improvement after $1$M steps on the Crafter benchmark. Our code is released at https://github.com/Ultraman-Tiga1/DyMoDreamer.

The very expressiveness of Bayesian networks can introduce fresh challenges due to the large number of relationships they often model. In many domains, it is thus often essential to supplement any available data with elicited expert judgements. This in turn leads to two key challenges: the cognitive burden of these judgements is often very high, and there are a very large number of judgements required to obtain a full probability model. We can mitigate both issues by introducing assumptions such as independence of causal influences (ICI) on the local structures throughout the network, restricting the parameter space of the model. However, the assumption of ICI is often unjustified and overly strong. In this paper, we introduce the surjective independence of causal influences (SICI) model which relaxes the ICI assumption and provides a more viable, practical alternative local structure model that facilitates efficient Bayesian network parameterisation.

Solving inverse problems with diffusion models has shown promise in tasks such as image restoration. A common approach is to formulate the problem in a Bayesian framework and sample from the posterior by combining the prior score with the likelihood score. Since the likelihood term is often intractable, estimators like DPS, DMPS, and $π$GDM are widely adopted. However, these methods rely on a fixed, manually tuned scale to balance prior and likelihood contributions. Such a static design is suboptimal, as the ideal balance varies across timesteps and tasks, limiting performance and generalization. To address this issue, we propose SAIP, a plug-and-play module that adaptively refines the scale at each timestep without retraining or altering the diffusion backbone. SAIP integrates seamlessly into existing samplers and consistently improves reconstruction quality across diverse image restoration tasks, including challenging scenarios.