In this paper, we derive a second order mean field theory for directed graphical probability models. By using an information theoretic argument it is shown how this can be done in the absense of a partition function. This method is a direct generalisation of the well-known TAP approximation for Boltzmann Machines. In a numerical example, it is shown that the method greatly improves the first order mean field approximation. For a restricted class of graphical models, so-called single overlap graphs, the second order method has comparable complexity to the first order method. For sigmoid belief networks, the method is shown to be particularly fast and effective.

A new form of covariance modelling for Gaussian mixture models and hidden Markov models is presented. This is an extension to an efficient form of covariance modelling used in speech recognition, semi-tied covariance matrices. In the standard form of semi-tied covariance matrices the covariance matrix is decomposed into a highly shared decorrelating transform and a component-specific diagonal covariance matrix. The use of a factored decorrelating transform is presented in this paper. This factoring effectively increases the number of possible transforms without increasing the number of free parameters.

We develop an approach for a sparse representation for Gaussian Process (GP) models in order to overcome the limitations of GPs caused by large data sets. The method is based on a combination of a Bayesian online algorithm together with a sequential construction of a relevant subsample of the data which fully specifies the prediction of the model. Experimental results on toy examples and large real-world data sets indicate the efficiency of the approach.

We present an algorithm that samples the hypothesis space of kernel classifiers. Given a uniform prior over normalised weight vectors and a likelihood based on a model of label noise leads to a piecewise constant posterior that can be sampled by the kernel Gibbs sampler (KGS). The KGS is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method that chooses a random direction in parameter space and samples from the resulting piecewise constant density along the line chosen. The KGS can be used as an analytical tool for the exploration of Bayesian transduction, Bayes point machines, active learning, and evidence-based model selection on small data sets that are contaminated with label noise. For a simple toy example we demonstrate experimentally how a Bayes point machine based on the KGS outperforms an SVM that is incapable of taking into account label noise. 1 Introduction Two great ideas have dominated recent developments in machine learning: the application of kernel methods and the popularisation of Bayesian inference.

Algebraic geometry is essential to learning theory. In hierarchical learning machines such as layered neural networks and gaussian mixtures, the asymptotic normality does not hold, since Fisher information matrices are singular. In this paper, the rigorous asymptotic form of the stochastic complexity is clarified based on resolution of singularities and two different problems are studied.

A central issue in principal component analysis (PCA) is choosing the number of principal components to be retained. By interpreting PCA as density estimation, we show how to use Bayesian model selection to estimate the true dimensionality of the data. The resulting estimate is simple to compute yet guaranteed to pick the correct dimensionality, given enough data. The estimate involves an integral over the Steifel manifold of k-frames, which is difficult to compute exactly. But after choosing an appropriate parameterization and applying Laplace's method, an accurate and practical estimator is obtained. In simulations, it is convincingly better than cross-validation and other proposed algorithms, plus it runs much faster.

We describe a neurally-inspired, unsupervised learning algorithm that builds a nonlinear generative model for pairs of face images from the same individual. Individuals are then recognized by finding the highest relative probability pair among all pairs that consist of a test image and an image whose identity is known. Our method compares favorably with other methods in the literature. The generative model consists of a single layer of rate-coded, nonlinear feature detectors and it has the property that, given a data vector, the true posterior probability distribution over the feature detector activities can be inferred rapidly without iteration or approximation. The weights of the feature detectors are learned by comparing the correlations of pixel intensities and feature activations in two phases: When the network is observing real data and when it is observing reconstructions of real data generated from the feature activations.

A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables. These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. As such, they induce seemingly complex dependencies among the latter. In recent years, much attention has been devoted to the development of algorithms for learning parameters, and in some cases structure, in the presence of hidden variables. In this paper, we address the related problem of detecting hidden variables that interact with the observed variables.

This paper explores a framework for recognition of image sequences using partially observable stochastic differential equation (SDE) models. Monte-Carlo importance sampling techniques are used for efficient estimation of sequence likelihoods and sequence likelihood gradients. Once the network dynamics are learned, we apply the SDE models to sequence recognition tasks in a manner similar to the way Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly applied. The potential advantage of SDEs over HMMS is the use of continuous state dynamics. We present encouraging results for a video sequence recognition task in which SDE models provided excellent performance when compared to hidden Markov models. 1 Introduction This paper explores a framework for recognition of image sequences using partially observable stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In particular we use SDE models of low-power nonlinear RC circuits with a significant thermal noise component. We call them diffusion networks. A diffusion network consists of a set of n nodes coupled via a vector of adaptive impedance parameters ' which are tuned to optimize the network's behavior.

A new form of covariance modelling for Gaussian mixture models and hidden Markov models is presented. This is an extension to an efficient form of covariance modelling used in speech recognition, semi-tied covariance matrices. In the standard form of semi-tied covariance matrices the covariance matrix is decomposed into a highly shared decorrelating transform and a component-specific diagonal covariance matrix. The use of a factored decorrelating transform is presented in this paper. This factoring effectively increases the number of possible transforms without increasing the number of free parameters.