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 Learning Graphical Models


Information Theory in Open-world Machine Learning Foundations, Frameworks, and Future Direction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Open world Machine Learning (OWML) aims to develop intelligent systems capable of recognizing known categories, rejecting unknown samples, and continually learning from novel information. Despite significant progress in open set recognition, novelty detection, and continual learning, the field still lacks a unified theoretical foundation that can quantify uncertainty, characterize information transfer, and explain learning adaptability in dynamic, nonstationary environments. This paper presents a comprehensive review of information theoretic approaches in open world machine learning, emphasizing how core concepts such as entropy, mutual information, and Kullback Leibler divergence provide a mathematical language for describing knowledge acquisition, uncertainty suppression, and risk control under open world conditions. We synthesize recent studies into three major research axes: information theoretic open set recognition enabling safe rejection of unknowns, information driven novelty discovery guiding new concept formation, and information retentive continual learning ensuring stable long term adaptation. Furthermore, we discuss theoretical connections between information theory and provable learning frameworks, including PAC Bayes bounds, open-space risk theory, and causal information flow, to establish a pathway toward provable and trustworthy open world intelligence. Finally, the review identifies key open problems and future research directions, such as the quantification of information risk, development of dynamic mutual information bounds, multimodal information fusion, and integration of information theory with causal reasoning and world model learning.


deFOREST: Fusing Optical and Radar satellite data for Enhanced Sensing of Tree-loss

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we develop a deforestation detection pipeline that incorporates optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. A crucial component of the pipeline is the construction of anomaly maps of the optical data, which is done using the residual space of a discrete Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion. Anomalies are quantified using a concentration bound on the distribution of the residual components for the nominal state of the forest. This bound does not require prior knowledge on the distribution of the data. This is in contrast to statistical parametric methods that assume knowledge of the data distribution, an impractical assumption that is especially infeasible for high dimensional data such as ours. Once the optical anomaly maps are computed they are combined with SAR data, and the state of the forest is classified by using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). We test our approach with Sentinel-1 (SAR) and Sentinel-2 (Optical) data on a $92.19\,km \times 91.80\,km$ region in the Amazon forest. The results show that both the hybrid optical-radar and optical only methods achieve high accuracy that is superior to the recent state-of-the-art hybrid method. Moreover, the hybrid method is significantly more robust in the case of sparse optical data that are common in highly cloudy regions.


A Geometric Approach to Optimal Experimental Design

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel geometric framework for optimal experimental design (OED). Traditional OED approaches, such as those based on mutual information, rely explicitly on probability densities, leading to restrictive invariance properties. To address these limitations, we propose the mutual transport dependence (MTD), a measure of statistical dependence grounded in optimal transport theory which provides a geometric objective for optimizing designs. Unlike conventional approaches, the MTD can be tailored to specific downstream estimation problems by choosing appropriate geometries on the underlying spaces. We demonstrate that our framework produces high-quality designs while offering a flexible alternative to standard information-theoretic techniques.


SkyDreamer: Interpretable End-to-End Vision-Based Drone Racing with Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous drone racing (ADR) systems have recently achieved champion-level performance, yet remain highly specific to drone racing. While end-to-end vision-based methods promise broader applicability, no system to date simultaneously achieves full sim-to-real transfer, onboard execution, and champion-level performance. In this work, we present SkyDreamer, to the best of our knowledge, the first end-to-end vision-based ADR policy that maps directly from pixel-level representations to motor commands. SkyDreamer builds on informed Dreamer, a model-based reinforcement learning approach where the world model decodes to privileged information only available during training. By extending this concept to end-to-end vision-based ADR, the world model effectively functions as an implicit state and parameter estimator, greatly improving interpretability. SkyDreamer runs fully onboard without external aid, resolves visual ambiguities by tracking progress using the state decoded from the world model's hidden state, and requires no extrinsic camera calibration, enabling rapid deployment across different drones without retraining. Real-world experiments show that SkyDreamer achieves robust, high-speed flight, executing tight maneuvers such as an inverted loop, a split-S and a ladder, reaching speeds of up to 21 m/s and accelerations of up to 6 g. It further demonstrates a non-trivial visual sim-to-real transfer by operating on poor-quality segmentation masks, and exhibits robustness to battery depletion by accurately estimating the maximum attainable motor RPM and adjusting its flight path in real-time. These results highlight SkyDreamer's adaptability to important aspects of the reality gap, bringing robustness while still achieving extremely high-speed, agile flight.


The Bidding Games: Reinforcement Learning for MEV Extraction on Polygon Blockchain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In blockchain networks, the strategic ordering of transactions within blocks has emerged as a significant source of profit extraction, known as Maximal Extractable Value (MEV). The transition from spam-based Priority Gas Auctions to structured auction mechanisms like Polygon Atlas has transformed MEV extraction from public bidding wars into sealed-bid competitions under extreme time constraints. While this shift reduces network congestion, it introduces complex strategic challenges where searchers must make optimal bidding decisions within a sub-second window without knowledge of competitor behavior or presence. Traditional game-theoretic approaches struggle in this high-frequency, partially observable environment due to their reliance on complete information and static equilibrium assumptions. We present a reinforcement learning framework for MEV extraction on Polygon Atlas and make three contributions: (1) A novel simulation environment that accurately models the stochastic arrival of arbitrage opportunities and probabilistic competition in Atlas auctions; (2) A PPO-based bidding agent optimized for real-time constraints, capable of adaptive strategy formulation in continuous action spaces while maintaining production-ready inference speeds; (3) Empirical validation demonstrating our history-conditioned agent captures 49\% of available profits when deployed alongside existing searchers and 81\% when replacing the market leader, significantly outperforming static bidding strategies. Our work establishes that reinforcement learning provides a critical advantage in high-frequency MEV environments where traditional optimization methods fail, offering immediate value for industrial participants and protocol designers alike.


Symbol Grounding in Neuro-Symbolic AI: A Gentle Introduction to Reasoning Shortcuts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neuro-symbolic (NeSy) AI aims to develop deep neural networks whose predictions comply with prior knowledge encoding, e.g. safety or structural constraints. As such, it represents one of the most promising avenues for reliable and trustworthy AI. The core idea behind NeSy AI is to combine neural and symbolic steps: neural networks are typically responsible for mapping low-level inputs into high-level symbolic concepts, while symbolic reasoning infers predictions compatible with the extracted concepts and the prior knowledge. Despite their promise, it was recently shown that - whenever the concepts are not supervised directly - NeSy models can be affected by Reasoning Shortcuts (RSs). That is, they can achieve high label accuracy by grounding the concepts incorrectly. RSs can compromise the interpretability of the model's explanations, performance in out-of-distribution scenarios, and therefore reliability. At the same time, RSs are difficult to detect and prevent unless concept supervision is available, which is typically not the case. However, the literature on RSs is scattered, making it difficult for researchers and practitioners to understand and tackle this challenging problem. This overview addresses this issue by providing a gentle introduction to RSs, discussing their causes and consequences in intuitive terms. It also reviews and elucidates existing theoretical characterizations of this phenomenon. Finally, it details methods for dealing with RSs, including mitigation and awareness strategies, and maps their benefits and limitations. By reformulating advanced material in a digestible form, this overview aims to provide a unifying perspective on RSs to lower the bar to entry for tackling them. Ultimately, we hope this overview contributes to the development of reliable NeSy and trustworthy AI models.


From Guess2Graph: When and How Can Unreliable Experts Safely Boost Causal Discovery in Finite Samples?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal discovery algorithms often perform poorly with limited samples. While integrating expert knowledge (including from LLMs) as constraints promises to improve performance, guarantees for existing methods require perfect predictions or uncertainty estimates, making them unreliable for practical use. We propose the Guess2Graph (G2G) framework, which uses expert guesses to guide the sequence of statistical tests rather than replacing them. This maintains statistical consistency while enabling performance improvements. We develop two instantiations of G2G: PC-Guess, which augments the PC algorithm, and gPC-Guess, a learning-augmented variant designed to better leverage high-quality expert input. Theoretically, both preserve correctness regardless of expert error, with gPC-Guess provably outperforming its non-augmented counterpart in finite samples when experts are "better than random."


Stop-RAG: Value-Based Retrieval Control for Iterative RAG

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Iterative retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enables large language models to answer complex multi-hop questions, but each additional loop increases latency, costs, and the risk of introducing distracting evidence, motivating the need for an efficient stopping strategy. Existing methods either use a predetermined number of iterations or rely on confidence proxies that poorly reflect whether more retrieval will actually help. We cast iterative RAG as a finite-horizon Markov decision process and introduce Stop-RAG, a value-based controller that adaptively decides when to stop retrieving. Trained with full-width forward-view Q($λ$) targets from complete trajectories, Stop-RAG learns effective stopping policies while remaining compatible with black-box APIs and existing pipelines. On multi-hop question-answering benchmarks, Stop-RAG consistently outperforms both fixed-iteration baselines and prompting-based stopping with LLMs. These results highlight adaptive stopping as a key missing component in current agentic systems, and demonstrate that value-based control can improve the accuracy of RAG systems.


Briding Diffusion Posterior Sampling and Monte Carlo methods: a survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion models enable the synthesis of highly accurate samples from complex distributions and have become foundational in generative modeling. Recently, they have demonstrated significant potential for solving Bayesian inverse problems by serving as priors. This review offers a comprehensive overview of current methods that leverage \emph{pre-trained} diffusion models alongside Monte Carlo methods to address Bayesian inverse problems without requiring additional training. We show that these methods primarily employ a \emph{twisting} mechanism for the intermediate distributions within the diffusion process, guiding the simulations toward the posterior distribution. We describe how various Monte Carlo methods are then used to aid in sampling from these twisted distributions.


GammaZero: Learning To Guide POMDP Belief Space Search With Graph Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce an action-centric graph representation framework for learning to guide planning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). Unlike existing approaches that require domain-specific neural architectures and struggle with scalability, GammaZero leverages a unified graph-based belief representation that enables generalization across problem sizes within a domain. Our key insight is that belief states can be systematically transformed into action-centric graphs where structural patterns learned on small problems transfer to larger instances. We employ a graph neural network with a decoder architecture to learn value functions and policies from expert demonstrations on computationally tractable problems, then apply these learned heuristics to guide Monte Carlo tree search on larger problems. Experimental results on standard POMDP benchmarks demonstrate that GammaZero achieves comparable performance to BetaZero when trained and tested on the same-sized problems, while uniquely enabling zero-shot generalization to problems 2-4 times larger than those seen during training, maintaining solution quality with reduced search requirements. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a principled framework for sequential decision-making under uncertainty, where agents must act based on incomplete information about the true state of the environment Kaelbling et al. (1998). This partial observability arises naturally in many real-world applications, from autonomous driving where sensors provide limited field-of-view Hoel et al. (2019), to robotic manipulation where object properties must be inferred through interaction Lauri et al. (2022), to subsurface exploration where underground structures can only be observed at sparse drilling locations Mern & Caers (2023).