Go is an ancient oriental game whose complexity has defeated attempts to automate it. We suggest using probability in a Bayesian sense to model the uncertainty arising from the vast complexity of the game tree. We present a simple conditional Markov random field model for predicting the pointwise territory outcome of a game. The topology of the model reflects the spatial structure of the Go board. We describe a version of the Swendsen-Wang process for sampling from the model during learning and apply loopy belief propagation for rapid inference and prediction. The model is trained on several hundred records of professional games. Our experimental results indicate that the model successfully learns to predict territory despite its simplicity.

We present a competitive analysis of Bayesian learning algorithms in the online learning setting and show that many simple Bayesian algorithms (such as Gaussian linear regression and Bayesian logistic regression) perform favorably when compared, in retrospect, to the single best model in the model class. The analysis does not assume that the Bayesian algorithms' modeling assumptions are "correct," and our bounds hold even if the data is adversarially chosen. For Gaussian linear regression (using logloss), our error bounds are comparable to the best bounds in the online learning literature, and we also provide a lower bound showing that Gaussian linear regression is optimal in a certain worst case sense. We also give bounds for some widely used maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation algorithms, including regularized logistic regression.

Online mechanism design (OMD) addresses the problem of sequential decision making in a stochastic environment with multiple self-interested agents. The goal in OMD is to make value-maximizing decisions despite this self-interest. In previous work we presented a Markov decision process (MDP)-based approach to OMD in large-scale problem domains. In practice the underlying MDP needed to solve OMD is too large and hence the mechanism must consider approximations. This raises the possibility that agents may be able to exploit the approximation for selfish gain. We adopt sparse-sampling-based MDP algorithms to implement ɛ- efficient policies, and retain truth-revelation as an approximate Bayesian-Nash equilibrium. Our approach is empirically illustrated in the context of the dynamic allocation of WiFi connectivity to users in a coffeehouse.

Theories of access consciousness address how it is that some mental states but not others are available for evaluation, choice behavior, and verbal report. Farah, O'Reilly, and Vecera (1994) argue that quality of representation is critical; Dehaene, Sergent, and Changeux (2003) argue that the ability to communicate representations is critical. We present a probabilistic information transmission or PIT model that suggests both of these conditions are essential for access consciousness. Having successfully modeled data from the repetition priming literature in the past, we use the PIT model to account for data from two experiments on subliminal priming, showing that the model produces priming even in the absence of accessibility and reportability of internal states. The model provides a mechanistic basis for understanding the dissociation of priming and awareness. Philosophy has made many attempts to identify distinct aspects of consciousness. Perhaps the most famous effort is Block's (1995) delineation of phenomenal and access consciousness. Phenomenal consciousness has to do with "what it is like" to experience chocolate or a pin prick. Access consciousness refers to internal states whose content is "(1) inferentially promiscuous, i.e., poised to be used as a premise in reasoning, (2) poised for control of action, and (3) poised for rational control of speech."

This paper analyzes generalization of the classic Rescorla-Wagner (R-W) learning algorithm and studies their relationship to Maximum Likelihood estimation of causal parameters. We prove that the parameters of two popular causal models, P and P C, can be learnt by the same generalized linear Rescorla-Wagner (GLRW) algorithm provided genericity conditions apply. We characterize the fixed points of these GLRW algorithms and calculate the fluctuations about them, assuming that the input is a set of i.i.d.

Statistical approaches to language learning typically focus on either short-range syntactic dependencies or long-range semantic dependencies between words. We present a generative model that uses both kinds of dependencies, and can be used to simultaneously find syntactic classes and semantic topics despite having no representation of syntax or semantics beyond statistical dependency. This model is competitive on tasks like part-of-speech tagging and document classification with models that exclusively use short-and long-range dependencies respectively.

An analog system-on-chip for kernel-based pattern classification and sequence estimation is presented. State transition probabilities conditioned on input data are generated by an integrated support vector machine. Dot product based kernels and support vector coefficients are implemented in analog programmable floating gate translinear circuits, and probabilities are propagated and normalized using sub-threshold current-mode circuits. A 14-input, 24-state, and 720-support vector forward decoding kernel machine is integrated on a 3mm 3mm chip in 0.5µm CMOS technology. Experiments with the processor trained for speaker verification and phoneme sequence estimation demonstrate real-time recognition accuracy at par with floating-point software, at sub-microwatt power.

We propose a "soft greedy" learning algorithm for building small conjunctions of simple threshold functions, called rays, defined on single real-valued attributes. We also propose a PAC-Bayes risk bound which is minimized for classifiers achieving a nontrivial tradeoff between sparsity (the number of rays used) and the magnitude of the separating margin of each ray. Finally, we test the soft greedy algorithm on four DNA micro-array data sets.

We propose a probabilistic, generative account of configural learning phenomena in classical conditioning. Configural learning experiments probe how animals discriminate and generalize between patterns of simultaneously presented stimuli (such as tones and lights) that are differentially predictive of reinforcement. Previous models of these issues have been successful more on a phenomenological than an explanatory level: they reproduce experimental findings but, lacking formal foundations, provide scant basis for understanding why animals behave as they do. We present a theory that clarifies seemingly arbitrary aspects of previous models while also capturing a broader set of data.

Coreference analysis, also known as record linkage or identity uncertainty, is a difficult and important problem in natural language processing, databases, citation matching and many other tasks. This paper introduces several discriminative, conditional-probability models for coreference analysis, all examples of undirected graphical models. Unlike many historical approaches to coreference, the models presented here are relational--they do not assume that pairwise coreference decisions should be made independently from each other. Unlike other relational models of coreference that are generative, the conditional model here can incorporate a great variety of features of the input without having to be concerned about their dependencies--paralleling the advantages of conditional random fields over hidden Markov models.