Abstract--Causal relationship discovery has been drawing increasing attention due to its prevalent application. Existing methods rely on human experience, statistical methods, or graphical criteria methods which are error-prone, stuck at the idealized assumption, and rely on a huge amount of data. And there is also a serious data gap in accessing Multivariate time series(MTS) in many areas, adding difficulty in finding their causal relationship. Existing methods are easy to be over-fitting on them. T o fill the gap we mentioned above, in this paper, we propose Shylock, a novel method that can work well in both few-shot and normal MTS to find the causal relationship. Shylock can reduce the number of parameters exponentially by using group dilated convolution and a sharing kernel, but still learn a better representation of variables with time delay. By combing the global constraint and the local constraint, Shylock achieves information sharing among networks to help improve the accuracy. T o evaluate the performance of Shylock, we also design a data generation method to generate MTS with time delay. We evaluate it on commonly used benchmarks and generated datasets. Extensive experiments show that Shylock outperforms two existing state-of-art methods on both few-shot and normal MTS.

A key task in Artificial Intelligence is learning effective policies for controlling agents in unknown environments to optimize performance measures. Off-policy learning methods, like Q-learning, allow learners to make optimal decisions based on past experiences. This paper studies off-policy learning from biased data in complex and high-dimensional domains where \emph{unobserved confounding} cannot be ruled out a priori. Building on the well-celebrated Deep Q-Network (DQN), we propose a novel deep reinforcement learning algorithm robust to confounding biases in observed data. Specifically, our algorithm attempts to find a safe policy for the worst-case environment compatible with the observations. We apply our method to twelve confounded Atari games, and find that it consistently dominates the standard DQN in all games where the observed input to the behavioral and target policies mismatch and unobserved confounders exist.

In Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), maintaining and updating belief distributions over possible underlying states provides a principled way to summarize action-observation history for effective decision-making under uncertainty. As environments grow more realistic, belief distributions develop complexity that standard mathematical models cannot accurately capture, creating a fundamental challenge in maintaining representational accuracy. Despite advances in deep learning and probabilistic modeling, existing POMDP belief approximation methods fail to accurately represent complex uncertainty structures such as high-dimensional, multi-modal belief distributions, resulting in estimation errors that lead to suboptimal agent behaviors. To address this challenge, we present ESCORT (Efficient Stein-variational and sliced Consistency-Optimized Representation for Temporal beliefs), a particle-based framework for capturing complex, multi-modal distributions in high-dimensional belief spaces. ESCORT extends SVGD with two key innovations: correlation-aware projections that model dependencies between state dimensions, and temporal consistency constraints that stabilize updates while preserving correlation structures. This approach retains SVGD's attractive-repulsive particle dynamics while enabling accurate modeling of intricate correlation patterns. Unlike particle filters prone to degeneracy or parametric methods with fixed representational capacity, ESCORT dynamically adapts to belief landscape complexity without resampling or restrictive distributional assumptions. We demonstrate ESCORT's effectiveness through extensive evaluations on both POMDP domains and synthetic multi-modal distributions of varying dimensionality, where it consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of belief approximation accuracy and downstream decision quality.

Aircraft collision avoidance systems is critical to modern aviation. These systems are designed to predict potential collisions between aircraft and recommend appropriate avoidance actions. Creating effective collision avoidance systems requires solutions to a variety of technical challenges related to surveillance, decision making, and validation. These challenges have sparked significant research and development efforts over the past several decades that have resulted in a variety of proposed solutions. This article provides an overview of these challenges and solutions with an emphasis on those that have been put through a rigorous validation process and accepted by regulatory bodies. The challenges posed by the collision avoidance problem are often present in other domains, and aircraft collision avoidance systems can serve as case studies that provide valuable insights for a wide range of safety-critical systems.

Generative models that maximize model likelihood have gained traction in many practical settings. Among them, perturbation based approaches underpin many strong likelihood estimation models, yet they often face slow convergence and limited theoretical understanding. In this paper, we derive a tighter likelihood bound for noise driven models to improve both the accuracy and efficiency of maximum likelihood learning. Our key insight extends the classical KL divergence Fisher information relationship to arbitrary noise perturbations, going beyond the Gaussian assumption and enabling structured noise distributions. This formulation allows flexible use of randomized noise distributions that naturally account for sensor artifacts, quantization effects, and data distribution smoothing, while remaining compatible with standard diffusion training. Treating the diffusion process as a Gaussian channel, we further express the mismatched entropy between data and model, showing that the proposed objective upper bounds the negative log-likelihood (NLL). In experiments, our models achieve competitive NLL on CIFAR-10 and SOTA results on ImageNet across multiple resolutions, all without data augmentation, and the framework extends naturally to discrete data.

Understanding how patterns of interaction between neural populations reorganize with behavior is central to systems neuroscience and to applications that decode or modulate brain activity. These interactions are often framed under the umbrella of brain connectivity, distinguished as structural (anatomical pathways), functional (statistical dependencies), and effective (directed influence)--complementary lenses on how distributed circuits communicate and adapt to task demands [1, 2]. Reviews emphasize both the promise and the challenges of connectivity-centric approaches, particularly the need to capture short-timescale dynamics while maintaining interpretability [3, 4]. Graph-based formulations make this agenda concrete: representing brain regions as nodes and their relationships as edges enables quantitative analysis of modularity, hubs, and task-dependent reconfiguration [5, 6]. Such network perspectives motivate methods that go beyond static, correlation-only descriptions toward dynamic, directed estimates that better align with mechanistic questions. We focus on intracranial local field potentials (LFPs), a high-temporal-resolution measure of population activity recorded simultaneously from multiple deep-brain regions [7, 8, 9, 10]. Multi-region LFP imposes unique modeling requirements: (i) many micro-contacts per region must be consolidated into coherent region-level trajectories; (ii) neural activity reconfigures across well-defined behavioral phases; and (iii) the spatial layout of contacts is high-dimensional and non-Euclidean [11]. Existing pipelines often average across behavior with a single correlation-based graph [2] or impose hard-coded anatomical connectivity [12, 13], limiting their ability to capture phase-specific, directed interactions. Recent machine learning advances in graph learning from neural time series highlight the opportunity but do not yet fill this gap.

Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) has been well studied to model the event distribution in marked event streams, which can be used to predict the mark and arrival time of the next event. However, existing studies overlook that the distribution of event marks is highly imbalanced in many real-world applications, with some marks being frequent but others rare. The imbalance poses a significant challenge to the performance of the next event prediction, especially for events of rare marks. To address this issue, we propose a thresholding method, which learns thresholds to tune the mark probability normalized by the mark's prior probability to optimize mark prediction, rather than predicting the mark directly based on the mark probability as in existing studies. In conjunction with this method, we predict the mark first and then the time. In particular, we develop a novel neural MTPP model to support effective time sampling and estimation of mark probability without computationally expensive numerical improper integration. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our solution against various baselines for the next event mark and time prediction. The code is available at https://github.com/undes1red/IFNMTPP.

We consider the problem of online dynamic mechanism design for sequential auctions in unknown environments, where the underlying market and, thus, the bidders' values vary over time as interactions between the seller and the bidders progress. We model the sequential auctions as an infinite-horizon average-reward Markov decision process (MDP). In each round, the seller determines an allocation and sets a payment for each bidder, while each bidder receives a private reward and submits a sealed bid to the seller. The state, which represents the underlying market, evolves according to an unknown transition kernel and the seller's allocation policy without episodic resets. We first extend the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) mechanism to sequential auctions, thereby obtaining a dynamic counterpart that preserves the desired properties: efficiency, truthfulness, and individual rationality. We then focus on the online setting and develop a reinforcement learning algorithm for the seller to learn the underlying MDP and implement a mechanism that closely resembles the dynamic VCG mechanism. We show that the learned mechanism approximately satisfies efficiency, truthfulness, and individual rationality and achieves guaranteed performance in terms of various notions of regret.

Listwise reranking with large language models (LLMs) enhances top-ranked results in retrieval-based applications. Due to the limit in context size and high inference cost of long context, reranking is typically performed over a fixed size of small subsets, with the final ranking aggregated from these partial results. This fixed computation disregards query difficulty and document distribution, leading to inefficiencies. We propose AcuRank, an adaptive reranking framework that dynamically adjusts both the amount and target of computation based on uncertainty estimates over document relevance. Using a Bayesian TrueSkill model, we iteratively refine relevance estimates until reaching sufficient confidence levels, and our explicit modeling of ranking uncertainty enables principled control over reranking behavior and avoids unnecessary updates to confident predictions. Results on the TREC-DL and BEIR benchmarks show that our method consistently achieves a superior accuracy-efficiency trade-off and scales better with compute than fixed-computation baselines. These results highlight the effectiveness and generalizability of our method across diverse retrieval tasks and LLM-based reranking models.

Generative flow networks are able to sample, via sequential construction, high-reward, complex objects according to a reward function. However, such reward functions are often estimated approximately from noisy data, leading to epistemic uncertainty in the learnt policy. We present an approach to quantify this uncertainty by constructing a surrogate model composed of a polynomial chaos expansion, fit on a small ensemble of trained flow networks. This model learns the relationship between reward functions, parametrised in a low-dimensional space, and the probability distributions over actions at each step along a trajectory of the flow network. The surrogate model can then be used for inexpensive Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the uncertainty in the policy given uncertain rewards. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a discrete and continuous grid-world, symbolic regression, and a Bayesian structure learning task.