Learning Graphical Models
Not So Naive Online Bayesian Spam Filter
Su, Baojun (Zhejiang University) | Xu, Congfu (Zhejiang University)
Spam filtering, as a key problem in electronic communication, has drawn significant attention due to increasingly huge amounts of junk email on the Internet. Content-based filtering is one reliable method in combating with spammers' changing tactics. Naive Bayes (NB) is one of the earliest content-based machine learning methods both in theory and practice in combating with spammers, which is easy to implement while can achieve considerable accuracy. In this paper, the traditional online Bayesian classifier are enhanced by two ways. First, from theory's point of view, we devise a self-adaptive mechanism to gradually weaken the assumption of independence required by original NB in the online training process, and as a result of that our NSNB is no longer ``naive''. Second, we propose other engineering ways to make the classifier more robust and accuracy. The experiment results show that our NSNB does give state-of-the-art classification performance on online spam filtering on large benchmark data sets while it is extremely fast and takes up little memory in comparison with other statistical methods.
Estimating the Impact of Public and Private Strategies for Controlling an Epidemic: A Multi-Agent Approach
Barrett, Christopher L. (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) | Bisset, Keith (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) | Leidig, Jonathan (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) | Marathe, Achla (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) | Marathe, Madhav (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)
This paper describes a novel approach based on a combination of techniques in AI, parallel computing, and network science to address an important problem in social sciences and public health: planning and responding in the event of epidemics. Spread of infectious disease is an important societal problem -- human behavior, social networks, and the civil infrastructures all play a crucial role in initiating and controlling such epidemic processes. We specifically consider the economic and social effects of realistic interventions proposed and adopted by public health officials and behavioral changes of private citizens in the event of a ``flu-like'' epidemic. Our results provide new insights for developing robust public policies that can prove useful for epidemic planning.
Visualizing Topics with Multi-Word Expressions
Blei, David M., Lafferty, John D.
We describe a new method for visualizing topics, the distributions over terms that are automatically extracted from large text corpora using latent variable models. Our method finds significant $n$-grams related to a topic, which are then used to help understand and interpret the underlying distribution. Compared with the usual visualization, which simply lists the most probable topical terms, the multi-word expressions provide a better intuitive impression for what a topic is "about." Our approach is based on a language model of arbitrary length expressions, for which we develop a new methodology based on nested permutation tests to find significant phrases. We show that this method outperforms the more standard use of $\chi^2$ and likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the topic presentations on corpora of scientific abstracts and news articles.
Bayesian Agglomerative Clustering with Coalescents
Teh, Yee Whye, Daumé, Hal III, Roy, Daniel
We introduce a new Bayesian model for hierarchical clustering based on a prior over trees called Kingman's coalescent. We develop novel greedy and sequential Monte Carlo inferences which operate in a bottom-up agglomerative fashion. We show experimentally the superiority of our algorithms over others, and demonstrate our approach in document clustering and phylolinguistics.
Open Problems in Universal Induction & Intelligence
Specialized intelligent systems can be found everywhere: finger print, handwriting, speech, and face recognition, spam filtering, chess and other game programs, robots, et al. This decade the first presumably complete mathematical theory of artificial intelligence based on universal induction-prediction-decision-action has been proposed. This information-theoretic approach solidifies the foundations of inductive inference and artificial intelligence. Getting the foundations right usually marks a significant progress and maturing of a field. The theory provides a gold standard and guidance for researchers working on intelligent algorithms. The roots of universal induction have been laid exactly half-a-century ago and the roots of universal intelligence exactly one decade ago. So it is timely to take stock of what has been achieved and what remains to be done. Since there are already good recent surveys, I describe the state-of-the-art only in passing and refer the reader to the literature. This article concentrates on the open problems in universal induction and its extension to universal intelligence.
Characterization of the convergence of stationary Fokker-Planck learning
The convergence properties of the stationary Fokker-Planck algorithm for the estimation of the asymptotic density of stochastic search processes is studied. Theoretical and empirical arguments for the characterization of convergence of the estimation in the case of separable and nonseparable nonlinear optimization problems are given. Some implications of the convergence of stationary Fokker-Planck learning for the inference of parameters in artificial neural network models are outlined.
Learning Bayesian Network Equivalence Classes with Ant Colony Optimization
Bayesian networks are a useful tool in the representation of uncertain knowledge. This paper proposes a new algorithm called ACO-E, to learn the structure of a Bayesian network. It does this by conducting a search through the space of equivalence classes of Bayesian networks using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). To this end, two novel extensions of traditional ACO techniques are proposed and implemented. Firstly, multiple types of moves are allowed. Secondly, moves can be given in terms of indices that are not based on construction graph nodes. The results of testing show that ACO-E performs better than a greedy search and other state-of-the-art and metaheuristic algorithms whilst searching in the space of equivalence classes.
A Bilinear Programming Approach for Multiagent Planning
Multiagent planning and coordination problems are common and known to be computationally hard. We show that a wide range of two-agent problems can be formulated as bilinear programs. We present a successive approximation algorithm that significantly outperforms the coverage set algorithm, which is the state-of-the-art method for this class of multiagent problems. Because the algorithm is formulated for bilinear programs, it is more general and simpler to implement. The new algorithm can be terminated at any time and-unlike the coverage set algorithm-it facilitates the derivation of a useful online performance bound. It is also much more efficient, on average reducing the computation time of the optimal solution by about four orders of magnitude. Finally, we introduce an automatic dimensionality reduction method that improves the effectiveness of the algorithm, extending its applicability to new domains and providing a new way to analyze a subclass of bilinear programs.
Semi-Supervised Classification using Sparse Gaussian Process Regression
Patel, Amrish (Indian Institute of Science) | Sundararajan, S. (Yahoo! Labs) | Shevade, Shirish (Indian Institute of Science)
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are promising Bayesian methods for classification and regression problems. They have also been used for semi-supervised learning tasks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for solving semi-supervised binary classification problem using sparse GP regression (GPR) models. It is closely related to semi-supervised learning based on support vector regression (SVR) and maximum margin clustering. The proposed algorithm is simple and easy to implement. It gives a sparse solution directly unlike the SVR based algorithm. Also, the hyperparameters are estimated easily without resorting to expensive cross-validation technique. Use of sparse GPR model helps in making the proposed algorithm scalable. Preliminary results on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the new algorithm.
Markov Logic: An Interface Layer for Artificial Intelligence
Most subfields of computer science have an interface layer via which applications communicate with the infrastructure, and this is key to their success (e.g., the Internet in networking, the relational model in databases, etc.). So far this interface layer has been missing in AI. First-order logic and probabilistic graphical models each have some of the necessary features, but a viable interface layer requires combining both. Markov logic is a powerful new language that accomplishes this by attaching weights to first-order formulas and treating them as templates for features of Markov random fields. Most statistical models in wide use are special cases of Markov logic, and first-order logic is its infinite-weight limit.