Motivated by stochastic systems in which observed evidence and conditional dependencies between states of the network change over time, and certain quantities of interest (marginal distributions, likelihood estimates etc.) must be updated, we study the problem of adaptive inference in tree-structured Bayesian networks. We describe an algorithm for adaptive inference that handles a broad range of changes to the network and is able to maintain marginal distributions, MAP estimates, and data likelihoods in all expected logarithmic time. We give an implementation of our algorithm and provide experiments that show that the algorithm can yield up to two orders of magnitude speedups on answering queries and responding to dynamic changes over the sum-product algorithm.

When predicting class labels for objects within a relational database, it is often helpful to consider a model for relationships: this allows for information between class labels to be shared and to improve prediction performance. However, there are different ways by which objects can be related within a relational database. One traditional way corresponds to a Markov network structure: each existing relation is represented by an undirected edge. This encodes that, conditioned on input features, each object label is independent of other object labels given its neighbors in the graph. However, there is no reason why Markov networks should be the only representation of choice for symmetric dependence structures. Here we discuss the case when relationships are postulated to exist due to hidden common causes. We discuss how the resulting graphical model differs from Markov networks, and how it describes different types of real-world relational processes. A Bayesian nonparametric classification model is built upon this graphical representation and evaluated with several empirical studies.

We investigate a family of inference problems on Markov models, where many sample paths are drawn from a Markov chain and partial information is revealed to an observer who attempts to reconstruct the sample paths. We present algorithms and hardness results for several variants of this problem which arise by revealing different information to the observer and imposing different requirements for the reconstruction of sample paths. Our algorithms are analogous to the classical Viterbi algorithm for Hidden Markov Models, which finds the single most probable sample path given a sequence of observations. Our work is motivated by an important application in ecology: inferring bird migration paths from a large database of observations.

Many formal models of cognition implicitly use subjective probability distributions to capture the assumptions of human learners. Most applications of these models determine these distributions indirectly. We propose a method for directly determining the assumptions of human learners by sampling from subjective probability distributions. Using a correspondence between a model of human choice and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), we describe a method for sampling from the distributions over objects that people associate with different categories. In our task, subjects choose whether to accept or reject a proposed change to an object. The task is constructed so that these decisions follow an MCMC acceptance rule, defining a Markov chain for which the stationary distribution is the category distribution. We test this procedure for both artificial categories acquired in the laboratory, and natural categories acquired from experience.

We demonstrate that log-linear grammars with latent variables can be practically trained using discriminative methods. Central to efficient discriminative training is a hierarchical pruning procedure which allows feature expectations to be efficiently approximated in a gradient-based procedure.

We investigate the problem of learning a widely-used latent-variable model - the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) or "topic" model - using distributed computation, where each of

We present an efficient generalization of the sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP) model developed by Snelson and Ghahramani [1], applying it to binary classification problems.

We present a nonparametric Bayesian method of estimating variable order Markov processes up to a theoretically infinite order. By extending a stick-breaking prior, which is usually defined on a unit interval, "vertically" to the trees of infinite depth associated with a hierarchical Chinese restaurant process, our model directly infers the hidden orders of Markov dependencies from which each symbol originated. Experiments on character and word sequences in natural language showed that the model has a comparative performance with an exponentially large full-order model, while computationally much efficient in both time and space. We expect that this basic model will also extend to the variable order hierarchical clustering of general data.

Clustering is often formulated as the maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture model that explains the data. The EM algorithm widely used to solve the resulting optimization problem is inherently a gradient-descent method and is sensitive to initialization. The resulting solution is a local optimum in the neighborhood of the initial guess. This sensitivity to initialization presents a significant challenge in clustering large data sets into many clusters. In this paper, we present a different approach to approximate mixture fitting for clustering. We introduce an exemplar-based likelihood function that approximates the exact likelihood. This formulation leads to a convex minimization problem and an efficient algorithm with guaranteed convergence to the globally optimal solution. The resulting clustering can be thought of as a probabilistic mapping of the data points to the set of exemplars that minimizes the average distance and the information-theoretic cost of mapping.

In many structured prediction problems, the highest-scoring labeling is hard to compute exactly, leading to the use of approximate inference methods. However, when inference is used in a learning algorithm, a good approximation of the score may not be sufficient. We show in particular that learning can fail even with an approximate inference method with rigorous approximation guarantees. There are two reasons for this. First, approximate methods can effectively reduce the expressivity of an underlying model by making it impossible to choose parameters that reliably give good predictions. Second, approximations can respond to parameter changes in such a way that standard learning algorithms are misled. In contrast, we give two positive results in the form of learning bounds for the use of LPrelaxed inference in structured perceptron and empirical risk minimization settings. We argue that without understanding combinations of inference and learning, such as these, that are appropriately compatible, learning performance under approximate inference cannot be guaranteed.