The International Monitoring System (IMS) is a global network of sensors whose purpose is to identify potential violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), primarily through detection and localization of seismic events. We report on the first stage of a project to improve on the current automated software system with a Bayesian inference system that computes the most likely global event history given the record of local sensor data. The new system, VISA (Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis), is based on empirically calibrated, generative models of event occurrence, signal propagation, and signal detection. VISA exhibits significantly improved precision and recall compared to the current operational system and is able to detect events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

We propose a new approach to value function approximation which combines linear temporal difference reinforcement learning with subspace identification. In practical applications, reinforcement learning (RL) is complicated by the fact that state is either high-dimensional or partially observable. Therefore, RL methods are designed to work with features of state rather than state itself, and the success or failure of learning is often determined by the suitability of the selected features. By comparison, subspace identification (SSID) methods are designed to select a feature set which preserves as much information as possible about state. In this paper we connect the two approaches, looking at the problem of reinforcement learning with a large set of features, each of which may only be marginally useful for value function approximation. We introduce a new algorithm for this situation, called Predictive State Temporal Difference (PSTD) learning. As in SSID for predictive state representations, PSTD finds a linear compression operator that projects a large set of features down to a small set that preserves the maximum amount of predictive information. As in RL, PSTD then uses a Bellman recursion to estimate a value function. We discuss the connection between PSTD and prior approaches in RL and SSID. We prove that PSTD is statistically consistent, perform several experiments that illustrate its properties, and demonstrate its potential on a difficult optimal stopping problem.

We propose a class of sparse coding models that utilizes a Laplacian Scale Mixture (LSM) prior to model dependencies among coefficients. Each coefficient is modeled as a Laplacian distribution with a variable scale parameter, with a Gamma distribution prior over the scale parameter. We show that, due to the conjugacy of the Gamma prior, it is possible to derive efficient inference procedures for both the coefficients and the scale parameter. When the scale parameters of a group of coefficients are combined into a single variable, it is possible to describe the dependencies that occur due to common amplitude fluctuations among coefficients, which have been shown to constitute a large fraction of the redundancy in natural images. We show that, as a consequence of this group sparse coding, the resulting inference of the coefficients follows a divisive normalization rule, and that this may be efficiently implemented a network architecture similar to that which has been proposed to occur in primary visual cortex. We also demonstrate improvements in image coding and compressive sensing recovery using the LSM model.

We present a novel method for constructing dependent Dirichlet processes. The approach exploits the intrinsic relationship between Dirichlet and Poisson processes in order to create a Markov chain of Dirichlet processes suitable for use as a prior over evolving mixture models. The method allows for the creation, removal, and location variation of component models over time while maintaining the property that the random measures are marginally DP distributed. Additionally, we derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for model inference and test it on both synthetic and real data. Empirical results demonstrate that the approach is effective in estimating dynamically varying mixture models.

We present a novel method for constructing dependent Dirichlet processes. The approach exploits the intrinsic relationship between Dirichlet and Poisson processes in order to create a Markov chain of Dirichlet processes suitable for use as a prior over evolving mixture models. The method allows for the creation, removal, and location variation of component models over time while maintaining the property that the random measures are marginally DP distributed. Additionally, we derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for model inference and test it on both synthetic and real data. Empirical results demonstrate that the approach is effective in estimating dynamically varying mixture models.

Automatic speech recognition has gradually improved over the years, but the reliable recognition of unconstrained speech is still not within reach. In order to achieve a breakthrough, many research groups are now investigating new methodologies that have potential to outperform the Hidden Markov Model technology that is at the core of all present commercial systems. In this paper, it is shown that the recently introduced concept of Reservoir Computing might form the basis of such a methodology. In a limited amount of time, a reservoir system that can recognize the elementary sounds of continuous speech has been built. The system already achieves a state-of-the-art performance, and there is evidence that the margin for further improvements is still significant.

Probabilistic models of natural images are usually evaluated by measuring performance on rather indirect tasks, such as denoising and inpainting. A more direct way to evaluate a generative model is to draw samples from it and to check whether statistical properties of the samples match the statistics of natural images. This method is seldom used with high-resolution images, because current models produce samples that are very different from natural images, as assessed by even simple visual inspection. We investigate the reasons for this failure and we show that by augmenting existing models so that there are two sets of latent variables, one set modelling pixel intensities and the other set modelling image-specific pixel covariances, we are able to generate high-resolution images that look much more realistic than before. The overall model can be interpreted as a gated MRF where both pair-wise dependencies and mean intensities of pixels are modulated by the states of latent variables. Finally, we confirm that if we disallow weight-sharing between receptive fields that overlap each other, the gated MRF learns more efficient internal representations, as demonstrated in several recognition tasks.

We present a technique for exact simulation of Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs), which can be interpreted as locally injecting noise to each Gaussian factor independently, followed by computing the mean/mode of the perturbed GMRF. Coupled with standard iterative techniques for the solution of symmetric positive definite systems, this yields a very efficient sampling algorithm with essentially linear complexity in terms of speed and memory requirements, well suited to extremely large scale probabilistic models. Apart from synthesizing data under a Gaussian model, the proposed technique directly leads to an efficient unbiased estimator of marginal variances. Beyond Gaussian models, the proposed algorithm is also very useful for handling highly non-Gaussian continuously-valued MRFs such as those arising in statistical image modeling or in the first layer of deep belief networks describing real-valued data, where the non-quadratic potentials coupling different sites can be represented as finite or infinite mixtures of Gaussians with the help of local or distributed latent mixture assignment variables. The Bayesian treatment of such models most naturally involves a block Gibbs sampler which alternately draws samples of the conditionally independent latent mixture assignments and the conditionally multivariate Gaussian continuous vector and we show that it can directly benefit from the proposed methods.

In many real-world scenarios, it is nearly impossible to collect explicit social network data. In such cases, whole networks must be inferred from underlying observations. Here, we formulate the problem of inferring latent social networks based on network diffusion or disease propagation data. We consider contagions propagating over the edges of an unobserved social network, where we only observe the times when nodes became infected, but not who infected them. Given such node infection times, we then identify the optimal network that best explains the observed data. We present a maximum likelihood approach based on convex programming with a l1-like penalty term that encourages sparsity. Experiments on real and synthetic data reveal that our method near-perfectly recovers the underlying network structure as well as the parameters of the contagion propagation model. Moreover, our approach scales well as it can infer optimal networks on thousands of nodes in a matter of minutes.

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular way to specify dependencies between random variables in a probabilistic model. In the Bayesian framework the covariance structure can be specified using unknown hyperparameters. Integrating over these hyperparameters considers different possible explanations for the data when making predictions. This integration is often performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. However, with non-Gaussian observations standard hyperparameter sampling approaches require careful tuning and may converge slowly. In this paper we present a slice sampling approach that requires little tuning while mixing well in both strong- and weak-data regimes.