Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) offer a formal model for planning in cooperative multiagent systems where agents operate with noisy sensors and actuators, and local information. Prevalent Dec-POMDP solution techniques have mostly been centralized and have assumed knowledge of the model. In real world scenarios, however, solving centrally may not be an option and model parameters maybe unknown. To address this, we propose a distributed, model-free algorithm for learning Dec-POMDP policies, in which agents take turns learning, with each agent not currently learning following a static policy. For agents that have not yet learned a policy, this static policy must be initialized. We propose a principled method for learning such initial policies through interaction with the environment. We show that by using such informed initial policies, our alternate learning algorithm can find near-optimal policies for two benchmark problems.

We present the concept of Bayesian Tool Affordances as a solution to estimate the suitable action for the given tool to realize the given novel effects to the robot. We define Tool affordances as the “awareness within robot about the different kind of effects it can create in the environment using a tool”. It incorporates understanding the bi-directional association of executed Action, functionally relevant features of the Tool and the resulting effects. We propose Bayesian leaning of Tool Affordances for prediction, inference and planning capabilities while dealing with uncertainty, redundancy and irrelevant information using limited learning samples. The estimation results are presented in this paper to validate the proposed concept of Bayesian Tool Affordances.

Restructuring electricity grids to meet the increased demand caused by the electrification of transport and heating, while making greater use of intermittent renewable energy sources, represents one of the greatest engineering challenges of our day. This modern electricity grid, in which both electricity and information flow in two directions between large numbers of widely distributed suppliers and generators — commonly termed the ‘smart grid’ — represents a radical reengineering of infrastructure which has changed little over the last hundred years. However, the autonomous behaviour expected of the smart grid, its distributed nature, and the existence of multiple stakeholders each with their own incentives and interests, challenges existing engineering approaches. In this challenge paper, we describe why we believe that artificial intelligence, and particularly, the fields of autonomous agents and multi-agent systems are essential for delivering the smart grid as it is envisioned. We present some recent work in this area and describe many of the challenges that still remain.

Goal recognition in digital games involves inferring players’ goals from observed sequences of low-level player actions. Goal recognition models support player-adaptive digital games, which dynamically augment game events in response to player choices for a range of applications, including entertainment, training, and education. However, digital games pose significant challenges for goal recognition, such as exploratory actions and ill-defined goals. This paper presents a goal recognition framework based on Markov logic networks (MLNs). The model’s parameters are directly learned from a corpus that was collected from player interactions with a non-linear educational game. An empirical evaluation demonstrates that the MLN goal recognition framework accurately predicts players’ goals in a game environment with exploratory actions and ill-defined goals.

The multiagent systems community has adopted game theory as a framework for the design of systems of multiple self-interested agents. For this to be effective, efficient algorithms must be designed to compute the solutions that game theory prescribes. In this paper, I summarize some of the state of the art on this topic, focusing particularly on how this line of work has contributed to several highly visible deployed security applications, developed at the University of Southern California.

The majority of existing approaches to mobile robot mapping assumes that the world is static, which is generally not justified in real-world applications. However, in many navigation tasks including trajectory planning, surveillance, and coverage, accurate maps are essential for the effective behavior of the robot.  In this paper we present a probabilistic grid-based approach for modeling changing environments. Our method represents both, the occupancy and its changes in the corresponding area where the dynamics are characterized by the state transition probabilities of a Hidden Markov Model. We apply an offline and an online technique to learn the parameters from observed data. The advantage of the online approach is that it can dynamically adapt the parameters and at the same time does not require storing the complete observation sequences.  Experimental results obtained with data acquired by real robots demonstrate that our model is well-suited for representing changing environments. Further results show that our technique can be used to substantially improve the effectiveness of path planning procedures.

Recent works on multi-agent sequential decision making using decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes have been concerned with interaction-oriented resolution techniques and provide promising results. These techniques take advantage of local interactions and coordination. In this paper, we propose an approach based on an interaction-oriented resolution of decentralized decision makers. To this end, distributed value functions (DVF) have been used by decoupling the multi-agent problem into a set of individual agent problems. However existing DVF techniques assume permanent and free communication between the agents. In this paper, we extend the DVF methodology to address full local observability, limited share of information and communication breaks. We apply our new DVF in a real-world application consisting of multi-robot exploration where each robot computes locally a strategy that minimizes the interactions between the robots and maximizes the space coverage of the team even under communication constraints. Our technique has been implemented and evaluated in simulation and in real-world scenarios during a robotic challenge for the exploration and mapping of an unknown environment. Experimental results from real-world scenarios and from the challenge are given where our system was vice-champion.

Modeling trust in complex dynamic environments is an important yet challenging issue since an intelligent agent may strategically change its behavior to maximize its profits. In thispaper, we propose a context aware trust model to predict dynamic trust by using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to model an agent's interactions. Although HMMs have already been applied in the past to model an agent's dynamic behavior to greatly improve the traditional static probabilistic trust approaches, most HMM based trust models only focus on outcomes of the past interactions without considering interaction context, which we believe, reflects immensely on the dynamic behavior or intent of an agent. Interaction contextual information is comprehensively studied and integrated into the model to more precisely approximate an agent's dynamic behavior. Evaluation using real auction data and synthetic data demonstrates the efficacy of our approach in comparison with previous state-of-the-art trust mechanisms.

We consider lifted importance sampling (LIS), a previously proposed approximate inference algorithm for statistical relational learning (SRL) models. LIS achieves substantial variance reduction over conventional importance sampling by using various lifting rules that take advantage of the symmetry in the relational representation. However, it suffers from two drawbacks. First, it does not take advantage of some important symmetries in the relational representation and may exhibit needlessly high variance on models having these symmetries. Second, it uses an uninformative proposal distribution which adversely affects its accuracy. We propose two improvements to LIS that address these limitations. First, we identify a new symmetry in SRL models and define a lifting rule for taking advantage of this symmetry. The lifting rule reduces the variance of LIS. Second, we propose a new, structured approach for constructing and dynamically updating the proposal distribution via adaptive sampling. We demonstrate experimentally that our new, improved LIS algorithm is substantially more accurate than the LIS algorithm.

Tractable subsets of first-order logic are a central topic in AI research. Several of these formalisms have been used as the basis for first-order probabilistic languages. However, these are intractable, losing the original motivation. Here we propose the first non-trivially tractable first-order probabilistic language. It is a subset of Markov logic, and uses probabilistic class and part hierarchies to control complexity. We call it TML (Tractable Markov Logic). We show that TML knowledge bases allow for efficient inference even when the corresponding graphical models have very high treewidth. We also show how probabilistic inheritance, default reasoning, and other inference patterns can be carried out in TML. TML opens up the prospect of efficient large-scale first-order probabilistic inference.