We consider the prediction of weak effects in a multiple-output regression setup, when covariates are expected to explain a small amount, less than $\approx 1%$, of the variance of the target variables. To facilitate the prediction of the weak effects, we constrain our model structure by introducing a novel Bayesian approach of sharing information between the regression model and the noise model. Further reduction of the effective number of parameters is achieved by introducing an infinite shrinkage prior and group sparsity in the context of the Bayesian reduced rank regression, and using the Bayesian infinite factor model as a flexible low-rank noise model. In our experiments the model incorporating the novelties outperformed alternatives in genomic prediction of rich phenotype data. In particular, the information sharing between the noise and regression models led to significant improvement in prediction accuracy.

The cumulative distribution network (CDN) is a recently developed class of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) permitting a copula factorization, in which the CDF, rather than the density, is factored. Despite there being much recent interest within the machine learning community about copula representations, there has been scarce research into the CDN, its amalgamation with copula theory, and no evaluation of its performance. Algorithms for inference, sampling, and learning in these models are underdeveloped compared those of other PGMs, hindering widerspread use. One advantage of the CDN is that it allows the factors to be parameterized as copulae, combining the benefits of graphical models with those of copula theory. In brief, the use of a copula parameterization enables greater modelling flexibility by separating representation of the marginals from the dependence structure, permitting more efficient and robust learning. Another advantage is that the CDN permits the representation of implicit latent variables, whose parameterization and connectivity are not required to be specified. Unfortunately, that the model can encode only latent relationships between variables severely limits its utility. In this thesis, we present inference, learning, and sampling for CDNs, and further the state-of-the-art. First, we explain the basics of copula theory and the representation of copula CDNs. Then, we discuss inference in the models, and develop the first sampling algorithm. We explain standard learning methods, propose an algorithm for learning from data missing completely at random (MCAR), and develop a novel algorithm for learning models of arbitrary treewidth and size. Properties of the models and algorithms are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. We conclude with further discussion of the advantages and limitations of CDNs, and suggest future work.

Given genetic variations and various phenotypical traits, such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) features, we consider two important and related tasks in biomedical research: i)to select genetic and phenotypical markers for disease diagnosis and ii) to identify associations between genetic and phenotypical data. These two tasks are tightly coupled because underlying associations between genetic variations and phenotypical features contain the biological basis for a disease. While a variety of sparse models have been applied for disease diagnosis and canonical correlation analysis and its extensions have bee widely used in association studies (e.g., eQTL analysis), these two tasks have been treated separately. To unify these two tasks, we present a new sparse Bayesian approach for joint association study and disease diagnosis. In this approach, common latent features are extracted from different data sources based on sparse projection matrices and used to predict multiple disease severity levels based on Gaussian process ordinal regression; in return, the disease status is used to guide the discovery of relationships between the data sources. The sparse projection matrices not only reveal interactions between data sources but also select groups of biomarkers related to the disease. To learn the model from data, we develop an efficient variational expectation maximization algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate that our approach achieves higher accuracy in both predicting ordinal labels and discovering associations between data sources than alternative methods. We apply our approach to an imaging genetics dataset for the study of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Our method identifies biologically meaningful relationships between genetic variations, MRI features, and AD status, and achieves significantly higher accuracy for predicting ordinal AD stages than the competing methods.

Gaussian process is a very promising novel technology that has been applied to both the regression problem and the classification problem. While for the regression problem it yields simple exact solutions, this is not the case for the classification problem, because we encounter intractable integrals. In this paper we develop a new derivation that transforms the problem into that of evaluating the ratio of multivariate Gaussian orthant integrals. Moreover, we develop a new Monte Carlo procedure that evaluates these integrals. It is based on some aspects of bootstrap sampling and acceptancerejection. The proposed approach has beneficial properties compared to the existing Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach, such as simplicity, reliability, and speed.

Artificial Immune System (AIS-MACA) a novel computational intelligence technique is can be used for strengthening the automated protein prediction system with more adaptability and incorporating more parallelism to the system. Most of the existing approaches are sequential which will classify the input into four major classes and these are designed for similar sequences. AIS-MACA is designed to identify ten classes from the sequences that share twilight zone similarity and identity with the training sequences with mixed and hybrid variations. This method also predicts three states (helix, strand, and coil) for the secondary structure. Our comprehensive design considers 10 feature selection methods and 4 classifiers to develop MACA (Multiple Attractor Cellular Automata) based classifiers that are build for each of the ten classes. We have tested the proposed classifier with twilight-zone and 1-high-similarity benchmark datasets with over three dozens of modern competing predictors shows that AIS-MACA provides the best overall accuracy that ranges between 80% and 89.8% depending on the dataset.

In Reinforcement Learning (RL; [1]) and planning in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs; [2]), the typical objective is to maximize the cumulative (possibly discounted) expected reward, denoted by J. When the model's parameters are known, several well-established and efficient optimization algorithms are known. When the model parameters are not known, learning is needed and there are several algorithmic frameworks that solve the learning problem effectively, at least when the model is finite. Among these, actor-critic methods [3] are known to be particularly efficient. In typical actor-critic algorithms, the critic maintains an estimate of the value function - the expected reward-to-go. This function is then used by the actor to estimate the gradient of the objective with respect to some policy parameters, and then improve the policy by modifying the parameters in the direction of the gradient. The theory that underlies actor-critic algorithms is the policy gradient theorem [4], which relates the value function with the policy gradient.

These are the written discussions of the paper "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit" by D. Spiegelhalter et al. (2002), following the discussions given at the Annual Meeting of the Royal Statistical Society in Newcastle-upon-Tyne on September 3rd, 2013.

Increasing widespread use of educational technologies is producing vast amounts of data. Such data can be used to help advance our understanding of student learning and enable more intelligent, interactive, engaging, and effective education. In this article, we discuss the status and prospects of this new and powerful opportunity for data-driven development and optimization of educational technologies, focusing on intelligent tutoring systems We provide examples of use of a variety of techniques to develop or optimize the select, evaluate, suggest, and update functions of intelligent tutors, including probabilistic grammar learning, rule induction, Markov decision process, classification, and integrations of symbolic search and statistical inference.

Max-margin learning is a powerful approach to building classifiers and structured output predictors. Recent work on max-margin supervised topic models has successfully integrated it with Bayesian topic models to discover discriminative latent semantic structures and make accurate predictions for unseen testing data. However, the resulting learning problems are usually hard to solve because of the non-smoothness of the margin loss. Existing approaches to building max-margin supervised topic models rely on an iterative procedure to solve multiple latent SVM subproblems with additional mean-field assumptions on the desired posterior distributions. This paper presents an alternative approach by defining a new max-margin loss. Namely, we present Gibbs max-margin supervised topic models, a latent variable Gibbs classifier to discover hidden topic representations for various tasks, including classification, regression and multi-task learning. Gibbs max-margin supervised topic models minimize an expected margin loss, which is an upper bound of the existing margin loss derived from an expected prediction rule. By introducing augmented variables and integrating out the Dirichlet variables analytically by conjugacy, we develop simple Gibbs sampling algorithms with no restricting assumptions and no need to solve SVM subproblems. Furthermore, each step of the "augment-and-collapse" Gibbs sampling algorithms has an analytical conditional distribution, from which samples can be easily drawn. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements on time efficiency. The classification performance is also significantly improved over competitors on binary, multi-class and multi-label classification tasks.

Many scientific and engineering fields involve analyzing network data. For document networks, relational topic models (RTMs) provide a probabilistic generative process to describe both the link structure and document contents, and they have shown promise on predicting network structures and discovering latent topic representations. However, existing RTMs have limitations in both the restricted model expressiveness and incapability of dealing with imbalanced network data. To expand the scope and improve the inference accuracy of RTMs, this paper presents three extensions: 1) unlike the common link likelihood with a diagonal weight matrix that allows the-same-topic interactions only, we generalize it to use a full weight matrix that captures all pairwise topic interactions and is applicable to asymmetric networks; 2) instead of doing standard Bayesian inference, we perform regularized Bayesian inference (RegBayes) with a regularization parameter to deal with the imbalanced link structure issue in common real networks and improve the discriminative ability of learned latent representations; and 3) instead of doing variational approximation with strict mean-field assumptions, we present collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithms for the generalized relational topic models by exploring data augmentation without making restricting assumptions. Under the generic RegBayes framework, we carefully investigate two popular discriminative loss functions, namely, the logistic log-loss and the max-margin hinge loss. Experimental results on several real network datasets demonstrate the significance of these extensions on improving the prediction performance, and the time efficiency can be dramatically improved with a simple fast approximation method.