The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is assumed to be constant but this may be innacurate when there are covariates that could have a large influence on the dependence structure of the data. To account for this, a Bayesian framework for the estimation of conditional copulas is proposed. In this framework the parameters of a copula are non-linearly related to some arbitrary conditioning variables. We evaluate the ability of our method to predict time-varying dependencies on several equities and currencies and observe consistent performance gains compared to static copula models and other time-varying copula methods.

We introduce RNADE, a new model for joint density estimation of real-valued vectors. Our model calculates the density of a datapoint as the product of one-dimensional conditionals modeled using mixture density networks with shared parameters. RNADE learns a distributed representation of the data, while having a tractable expression for the calculation of densities. A tractable likelihood allows direct comparison with other methods and training by standard gradient-based optimizers. We compare the performance of RNADE on several datasets of heterogeneous and perceptual data, finding it outperforms mixture models in all but one case.

We propose an approximate inference algorithm for continuous time Gaussian-Markov process models with both discrete and continuous time likelihoods. We show that the continuous time limit of the expectation propagation algorithm exists and results in a hybrid fixed point iteration consisting of (1) expectation propagation updates for the discrete time terms and (2) variational updates for the continuous time term. We introduce corrections methods that improve on the marginals of the approximation. This approach extends the classical Kalman-Bucy smoothing procedure to non-Gaussian observations, enabling continuous-time inference in a variety of models, including spiking neuronal models (state-space models with point process observations) and box likelihood models. Experimental results on real and simulated data demonstrate high distributional accuracy and significant computational savings compared to discrete-time approaches in a neural application.

Entropy rate quantifies the amount of disorder in a stochastic process. For spiking neurons, the entropy rate places an upper bound on the rate at which the spike train can convey stimulus information, and a large literature has focused on the problem of estimating entropy rate from spike train data. Here we present Bayes Least Squares and Empirical Bayesian entropy rate estimators for binary spike trains using Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) priors. Our estimator leverages the fact that the entropy rate of an ergodic Markov Chain with known transition probabilities can be calculated analytically, and many stochastic processes that are non-Markovian can still be well approximated by Markov processes of sufficient depth. Choosing an appropriate depth of Markov model presents challenges due to possibly long time dependencies and short data sequences: a deeper model can better account for long time-dependencies, but is more difficult to infer from limited data. Our approach mitigates this difficulty by using a hierarchical prior to share statistical power across Markov chains of different depths. We present both a fully Bayesian and empirical Bayes entropy rate estimator based on this model, and demonstrate their performance on simulated and real neural spike train data.

POMDPs provide a principled framework for planning under uncertainty, but are computationally intractable, due to the “curse of dimensionality” and the “curse of history”. This paper presents an online lookahead search algorithm that alleviates these difficulties by limiting the search to a set of sampled scenarios. The execution of all policies on the sampled scenarios is summarized using a Determinized Sparse Partially Observable Tree (DESPOT), which is a sparsely sampled belief tree. Our algorithm, named Regularized DESPOT (R-DESPOT), searches the DESPOT for a policy that optimally balances the size of the policy and the accuracy on its value estimate obtained through sampling. We give an output-sensitive performance bound for all policies derived from the DESPOT, and show that R-DESPOT works well if a small optimal policy exists. We also give an anytime approximation to R-DESPOT. Experiments show strong results, compared with two of the fastest online POMDP algorithms.

We study optimal image encoding based on a generative approach with non-linear feature combinations and explicit position encoding. By far most approaches to unsupervised learning learning of visual features, such as sparse coding or ICA, account for translations by representing the same features at different positions. Some earlier models used a separate encoding of features and their positions to facilitate invariant data encoding and recognition. All probabilistic generative models with explicit position encoding have so far assumed a linear superposition of components to encode image patches. Here, we for the first time apply a model with non-linear feature superposition and explicit position encoding. By avoiding linear superpositions, the studied model represents a closer match to component occlusions which are ubiquitous in natural images. In order to account for occlusions, the non-linear model encodes patches qualitatively very different from linear models by using component representations separated into mask and feature parameters. We first investigated encodings learned by the model using artificial data with mutually occluding components. We find that the model extracts the components, and that it can correctly identify the occlusive components with the hidden variables of the model. On natural image patches, the model learns component masks and features for typical image components. By using reverse correlation, we estimate the receptive fields associated with the model's hidden units. We find many Gabor-like or globular receptive fields as well as fields sensitive to more complex structures. Our results show that probabilistic models that capture occlusions and invariances can be trained efficiently on image patches, and that the resulting encoding represents an alternative model for the neural encoding of images in the primary visual cortex.

Infinite mixture models are commonly used for clustering. One can sample from the posterior of mixture assignments by Monte Carlo methods or find its maximum a posteriori solution by optimization. However, in some problems the posterior is diffuse and it is hard to interpret the sampled partitionings. In this paper, we introduce novel statistics based on block sizes for representing sample sets of partitionings and feature allocations. We develop an element-based definition of entropy to quantify segmentation among their elements. Then we propose a simple algorithm called entropy agglomeration (EA) to summarize and visualize this information. Experiments on various infinite mixture posteriors as well as a feature allocation dataset demonstrate that the proposed statistics are useful in practice.

Learning the joint dependence of discrete variables is a fundamental problem in machine learning, with many applications including prediction, clustering and dimensionality reduction. More recently, the framework of copula modeling has gained popularity due to its modular parametrization of joint distributions. Among other properties, copulas provide a recipe for combining flexible models for univariate marginal distributions with parametric families suitable for potentially high dimensional dependence structures. More radically, the extended rank likelihood approach of Hoff (2007) bypasses learning marginal models completely when such information is ancillary to the learning task at hand as in, e.g., standard dimensionality reduction problems or copula parameter estimation. The main idea is to represent data by their observable rank statistics, ignoring any other information from the marginals. Inference is typically done in a Bayesian framework with Gaussian copulas, and it is complicated by the fact this implies sampling within a space where the number of constraints increase quadratically with the number of data points. The result is slow mixing when using off-the-shelf Gibbs sampling. We present an efficient algorithm based on recent advances on constrained Hamiltonian Markov chain Monte Carlo that is simple to implement and does not require paying for a quadratic cost in sample size.

We present SDA-Bayes, a framework for (S)treaming, (D)istributed, (A)synchronous computation of a Bayesian posterior. The framework makes streaming updates to the estimated posterior according to a user-specified approximation primitive function. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework, with variational Bayes (VB) as the primitive, by fitting the latent Dirichlet allocation model to two large-scale document collections. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm over stochastic variational inference (SVI), both in the single-pass setting SVI was designed for and in the streaming setting, to which SVI does not apply.

This paper presents four major results towards solving decentralized partially observable Markov decision problems (DecPOMDPs) culminating in an algorithm that outperforms all existing algorithms on all but one standard infinite-horizon benchmark problems. (1) We give an integer program that solves collaborative Bayesian games (CBGs). The program is notable because its linear relaxation is very often integral. (2) We show that a DecPOMDP with bounded belief can be converted to a POMDP (albeit with actions exponential in the number of beliefs). These actions correspond to strategies of a CBG. (3) We present a method to transform any DecPOMDP into a DecPOMDP with bounded beliefs (the number of beliefs is a free parameter) using optimal (not lossless) belief compression. (4) We show that the combination of these results opens the door for new classes of DecPOMDP algorithms based on previous POMDP algorithms. We choose one such algorithm, point-based valued iteration, and modify it to produce the first tractable value iteration method for DecPOMDPs which outperforms existing algorithms.