During the last two decades there has been a growing interest in Particle Filtering (PF). However, PF suffers from two long-standing problems that are referred to as sample degeneracy and impoverishment. We are investigating methods that are particularly efficient at Particle Distribution Optimization (PDO) to fight sample degeneracy and impoverishment, with an emphasis on intelligence choices. These methods benefit from such methods as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, Mean-shift algorithms, artificial intelligence algorithms (e.g., Particle Swarm Optimization, Genetic Algorithm and Ant Colony Optimization), machine learning approaches (e.g., clustering, splitting and merging) and their hybrids, forming a coherent standpoint to enhance the particle filter. The working mechanism, interrelationship, pros and cons of these approaches are provided. In addition, Approaches that are effective for dealing with high-dimensionality are reviewed. While improving the filter performance in terms of accuracy, robustness and convergence, it is noted that advanced techniques employed in PF often causes additional computational requirement that will in turn sacrifice improvement obtained in real life filtering. This fact, hidden in pure simulations, deserves the attention of the users and designers of new filters.

We pursue an early stopping technique that helps Gaussian Restricted Boltzmann Machines (GRBMs) to gain good natural image representations in terms of overcompleteness and data fitting. GRBMs are widely considered as an unsuitable model for natural images because they gain non-overcomplete representations which include uniform filters that do not represent useful image features. We have recently found that GRBMs once gain and subsequently lose useful filters during their training, contrary to this common perspective. We attribute this phenomenon to a tradeoff between overcompleteness of GRBM representations and data fitting. To gain GRBM representations that are overcomplete and fit data well, we propose a measure for GRBM representation quality, approximated mutual information, and an early stopping technique based on this measure. The proposed method boosts performance of classifiers trained on GRBM representations.

We extend the theory of d-separation to cases in which data instances are not independent and identically distributed. We show that applying the rules of d-separation directly to the structure of probabilistic models of relational data inaccurately infers conditional independence. We introduce relational d-separation, a theory for deriving conditional independence facts from relational models. We provide a new representation, the abstract ground graph, that enables a sound, complete, and computationally efficient method for answering d-separation queries about relational models, and we present empirical results that demonstrate effectiveness.

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a systematic way of combining the two main tools used for Monte Carlo statistical inference: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present a novel PMCMC algorithm that we refer to as particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS). PGAS provides the data analyst with an off-the-shelf class of Markov kernels that can be used to simulate the typically high-dimensional and highly autocorrelated state trajectory in a state-space model. The ancestor sampling procedure enables fast mixing of the PGAS kernel even when using seemingly few particles in the underlying SMC sampler. This is important as it can significantly reduce the computational burden that is typically associated with using SMC. PGAS is conceptually similar to the existing PG with backward simulation (PGBS) procedure. Instead of using separate forward and backward sweeps as in PGBS, however, we achieve the same effect in a single forward sweep. This makes PGAS well suited for addressing inference problems not only in state-space models, but also in models with more complex dependencies, such as non-Markovian, Bayesian nonparametric, and general probabilistic graphical models.

We propose a relaxation-based approximate inference algorithm that samples near-MAP configurations of a binary pairwise Markov random field. We experiment on MAP inference tasks in several restricted Boltzmann machines. We also use our underlying sampler to estimate the log-partition function of restricted Boltzmann machines and compare against other sampling-based methods.

We propose a new method for detecting changes in Markov network structure between two sets of samples. Instead of naively fitting two Markov network models separately to the two data sets and figuring out their difference, we \emph{directly} learn the network structure change by estimating the ratio of Markov network models. This density-ratio formulation naturally allows us to introduce sparsity in the network structure change, which highly contributes to enhancing interpretability. Furthermore, computation of the normalization term, which is a critical bottleneck of the naive approach, can be remarkably mitigated. We also give the dual formulation of the optimization problem, which further reduces the computation cost for large-scale Markov networks. Through experiments, we demonstrate the usefulness of our method.

Learning dynamic models from observed data has been a central issue in many scientific studies or engineering tasks. The usual setting is that data are collected sequentially from trajectories of some dynamical system operation. In quite a few modern scientific modeling tasks, however, it turns out that reliable sequential data are rather difficult to gather, whereas out-of-order snapshots are much easier to obtain. Examples include the modeling of galaxies, chronic diseases such Alzheimer's, or certain biological processes. Existing methods for learning dynamic model from non-sequence data are mostly based on Expectation-Maximization, which involves non-convex optimization and is thus hard to analyze. Inspired by recent advances in spectral learning methods, we propose to study this problem from a different perspective: moment matching and spectral decomposition. Under that framework, we identify reasonable assumptions on the generative process of non-sequence data, and propose learning algorithms based on the tensor decomposition method \cite{anandkumar2012tensor} to \textit{provably} recover first-order Markov models and hidden Markov models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal guarantee on learning from non-sequence data. Preliminary simulation results confirm our theoretical findings.

An important challenge in Markov decision processes is to ensure robustness with respect to unexpected or adversarial system behavior while taking advantage of well-behaving parts of the system. We consider a problem setting where some unknown parts of the state space can have arbitrary transitions while other parts are purely stochastic. We devise an algorithm that is adaptive to potentially adversarial behavior and show that it achieves similar regret bounds as the purely stochastic case.

Statistical analysis of social networks and other relational data is becoming an increasingly important problem as the scope and availability of network data increases. Network data--such as the friendships in a social network--is often dynamic in a sense that relations between entities rise and decay over time. A fundamental problem in the analysis of such dynamic network data is to extract a summary of the common structure and the dynamics of the underlying relations between entities. Accurate models of structure and dynamics of network data have many applications. They allow us to predict missing relationships [20, 21, 23], recommend potential new relations [2], identify clusters and groups of nodes [1, 29], forecast future links [4, 9, 11, 24], and even predict group growth and longevity [15]. Here we present a new approach to modeling network dynamics by considering time-evolving interactions between groups of nodes as well as the arrival and departure dynamics of individual nodes to these groups. We develop a dynamic network model, Dynamic Multi-group Membership Graph Model, that identifies the birth and death of individual groups as well as the dynamics of node joining and leaving groups in order to explain changes in the underlying network linking structure. Our nonparametric model considers an infinite number of latent groups, where each node can belong to multiple groups simultaneously. We capture the evolution of individual node group memberships via a Factorial Hidden Markov model.

With simultaneous measurements from ever increasing populations of neurons, there is a growing need for sophisticated tools to recover signals from individual neurons. In electrophysiology experiments, this classically proceeds in a two-step process: (i) threshold the waveforms to detect putative spikes and (ii) cluster the waveforms into single units (neurons). We extend previous Bayesian nonparamet- ric models of neural spiking to jointly detect and cluster neurons using a Gamma process model. Importantly, we develop an online approximate inference scheme enabling real-time analysis, with performance exceeding the previous state-of-the- art. Via exploratory data analysis—using data with partial ground truth as well as two novel data sets—we find several features of our model collectively contribute to our improved performance including: (i) accounting for colored noise, (ii) de- tecting overlapping spikes, (iii) tracking waveform dynamics, and (iv) using mul- tiple channels. We hope to enable novel experiments simultaneously measuring many thousands of neurons and possibly adapting stimuli dynamically to probe ever deeper into the mysteries of the brain.