The study of networks has received increased attention recently not only from the social sciences and statistics but also from physicists, computer scientists and mathematicians. One of the principal problem in networks is community detection. Many algorithms have been proposed for community finding but most of them do not have have theoretical guarantee for sparse networks and networks close to the phase transition boundary proposed by physicists. There are some exceptions but all have some incomplete theoretical basis. Here we propose an algorithm based on the graph distance of vertices in the network. We give theoretical guarantees that our method works in identifying communities for block models and can be extended for degree-corrected block models and block models with the number of communities growing with number of vertices. Despite favorable simulation results, we are not yet able to conclude that our method is satisfactory for worst possible case. We illustrate on a network of political blogs, Facebook networks and some other networks.

Generative Stochastic Networks (GSNs) have been recently introduced as an alternative to traditional probabilistic modeling: instead of parametrizing the data distribution directly, one parametrizes a transition operator for a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is an estimator of the data generating distribution. The result of training is therefore a machine that generates samples through this Markov chain. However, the previously introduced GSN consistency theorems suggest that in order to capture a wide class of distributions, the transition operator in general should be multimodal, something that has not been done before this paper. We introduce for the first time multimodal transition distributions for GSNs, in particular using models in the NADE family (Neural Autoregressive Density Estimator) as output distributions of the transition operator. A NADE model is related to an RBM (and can thus model multimodal distributions) but its likelihood (and likelihood gradient) can be computed easily. The parameters of the NADE are obtained as a learned function of the previous state of the learned Markov chain. Experiments clearly illustrate the advantage of such multimodal transition distributions over unimodal GSNs.

Hierarchical parametric models consisting of observable and latent variables are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. For example, a mixture model is a representative hierarchical model for clustering. From the statistical point of view, the models can be regular or singular due to the distribution of data. In the regular case, the models have the identifiability; there is one-to-one relation between a probability density function for the model expression and the parameter. The Fisher information matrix is positive definite, and the estimation accuracy of both observable and latent variables has been studied. In the singular case, on the other hand, the models are not identifiable and the Fisher matrix is not positive definite. Conventional statistical analysis based on the inverse Fisher matrix is not applicable. Recently, an algebraic geometrical analysis has been developed and is used to elucidate the Bayes estimation of observable variables. The present paper applies this analysis to latent-variable estimation and determines its theoretical performance. Our results clarify behavior of the convergence of the posterior distribution. It is found that the posterior of the observable-variable estimation can be different from the one in the latent-variable estimation. Because of the difference, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on the parameter and the latent variable cannot construct the desired posterior distribution.

We introduce a general framework for measuring risk in the context of Markov control processes with risk maps on general Borel spaces that generalize known concepts of risk measures in mathematical finance, operations research and behavioral economics. Within the framework, applying weighted norm spaces to incorporate also unbounded costs, we study two types of infinite-horizon risk-sensitive criteria, discounted total risk and average risk, and solve the associated optimization problems by dynamic programming. For the discounted case, we propose a new discount scheme, which is different from the conventional form but consistent with the existing literature, while for the average risk criterion, we state Lyapunov-like stability conditions that generalize known conditions for Markov chains to ensure the existence of solutions to the optimality equation.

We present a theoretical analysis of Gaussian-binary restricted Boltzmann machines (GRBMs) from the perspective of density models. The key aspect of this analysis is to show that GRBMs can be formulated as a constrained mixture of Gaussians, which gives a much better insight into the model's capabilities and limitations. We show that GRBMs are capable of learning meaningful features both in a two-dimensional blind source separation task and in modeling natural images. Further, we show that reported difficulties in training GRBMs are due to the failure of the training algorithm rather than the model itself. Based on our analysis we are able to propose several training recipes, which allowed successful and fast training in our experiments. Finally, we discuss the relationship of GRBMs to several modifications that have been proposed to improve the model.

Discovering causal relations among observed variables in a given data set is a major objective in studies of statistics and artificial intelligence. Recently, some techniques to discover a unique causal model have been explored based on non-Gaussianity of the observed data distribution. However, most of these are limited to continuous data. In this paper, we present a novel causal model for binary data and propose an efficient new approach to deriving the unique causal model governing a given binary data set under skew distributions of external binary noises. Experimental evaluation shows excellent performance for both artificial and real world data sets.

In this paper we analyze the asymptotic properties of l1 penalized maximum likelihood estimation of signals with piece-wise constant mean values and/or variances. The focus is on segmentation of a non-stationary time series with respect to changes in these model parameters. This change point detection and estimation problem is also referred to as total variation denoising or l1 -mean filtering and has many important applications in most fields of science and engineering. We establish the (approximate) sparse consistency properties, including rate of convergence, of the so-called fused lasso signal approximator (FLSA). We show that this only holds if the sign of the corresponding consecutive changes are all different, and that this estimator is otherwise incapable of correctly detecting the underlying sparsity pattern. The key idea is to notice that the optimality conditions for this problem can be analyzed using techniques related to brownian bridge theory.

The question of how to determine the number of independent latent factors, or topics, in Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is of great practical importance. In most applications, the exact number of topics is unknown, and depends on the application and the size of the data set. We introduce a spectral model selection procedure for topic number estimation that does not require learning the model's latent parameters beforehand and comes with probabilistic guarantees. The procedure is motivated by the spectral learning approach and relies on adaptations of results from random matrix theory. In a simulation experiment taken from the nonparametric Bayesian literature, this procedure outperforms the nonparametric Bayesian approach in both accuracy and speed. We also discuss some implications of our results for the sample complexity and accuracy of popular spectral learning algorithms for LDA. The principles underlying the procedure can be extended to spectral learning algorithms for other exchangeable mixture models with similar conditional independence properties.

In this paper, we consider decentralized sequential decision making in distributed online recommender systems, where items are recommended to users based on their search query as well as their specific background including history of bought items, gender and age, all of which comprise the context information of the user. In contrast to centralized recommender systems, in which there is a single centralized seller who has access to the complete inventory of items as well as the complete record of sales and user information, in decentralized recommender systems each seller/learner only has access to the inventory of items and user information for its own products and not the products and user information of other sellers, but can get commission if it sells an item of another seller. Therefore the sellers must distributedly find out for an incoming user which items to recommend (from the set of own items or items of another seller), in order to maximize the revenue from own sales and commissions. We formulate this problem as a cooperative contextual bandit problem, analytically bound the performance of the sellers compared to the best recommendation strategy given the complete realization of user arrivals and the inventory of items, as well as the context-dependent purchase probabilities of each item, and verify our results via numerical examples on a distributed data set adapted based on Amazon data. We evaluate the dependence of the performance of a seller on the inventory of items the seller has, the number of connections it has with the other sellers, and the commissions which the seller gets by selling items of other sellers to its users.

When faced with the problem of learning a model of a high-dimensional environment, a common approach is to limit the model to make only a restricted set of predictions, thereby simplifying the learning problem. These partial models may be directly useful for making decisions or may be combined together to form a more complete, structured model. However, in partially observable (non-Markov) environments, standard model-learning methods learn generative models, i.e. models that provide a probability distribution over all possible futures (such as POMDPs). It is not straightforward to restrict such models to make only certain predictions, and doing so does not always simplify the learning problem. In this paper we present prediction profile models: non-generative partial models for partially observable systems that make only a given set of predictions, and are therefore far simpler than generative models in some cases. We formalize the problem of learning a prediction profile model as a transformation of the original model-learning problem, and show empirically that one can learn prediction profile models that make a small set of important predictions even in systems that are too complex for standard generative models.