In recent years, the field of computational sustainability has striven to apply artificial intelligence techniques to solve ecological and environmental problems. In ecology, a key issue for the safeguarding of our planet is the monitoring of biodiversity. Automated acoustic recognition of species aims to provide a cost-effective method for biodiversity monitoring. This is particularly appealing for detecting endangered animals with a distinctive call, such as the New Forest cicada. To this end, we pursue a crowdsourcing approach, whereby the millions of visitors to the New Forest, where this insect was historically found, will help to monitor its presence by means of a smartphone app that can detect its mating call. Existing research in the field of acoustic insect detection has typically focused upon the classification of recordings collected from fixed field microphones. Such approaches segment a lengthy audio recording into individual segments of insect activity, which are independently classified using cepstral coefficients extracted from the recording as features. This paper reports on a contrasting approach, whereby we use crowdsourcing to collect recordings via a smartphone app, and present an immediate feedback to the users as to whether an insect has been found. Our classification approach does not remove silent parts of the recording via segmentation, but instead uses the temporal patterns throughout each recording to classify the insects present. We show that our approach can successfully discriminate between the call of the New Forest cicada and similar insects found in the New Forest, and is robust to common types of environment noise. A large scale trial deployment of our smartphone app collected over 6000 reports of insect activity from over 1000 users. Despite the cicada not having been rediscovered in the New Forest, the effectiveness of this approach was confirmed for both the detection algorithm, which successfully identified the same cicada through the app in countries where the same species is still present, and of the crowdsourcing methodology, which collected a vast number of recordings and involved thousands of contributors.

Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

In this note we provide detailed derivations of two versions of small-variance asymptotics for hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models and the HDP hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM, a.k.a. the infinite HMM). We include derivations for the probabilities of certain CRP and CRF partitions, which are of more general interest.

Markov random fields (MRFs) are difficult to evaluate as generative models because computing the test log-probabilities requires the intractable partition function. Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is widely used to estimate MRF partition functions, and often yields quite accurate results. However, AIS is prone to overestimate the log-likelihood with little indication that anything is wrong. We present the Reverse AIS Estimator (RAISE), a stochastic lower bound on the log-likelihood of an approximation to the original MRF model. RAISE requires only the same MCMC transition operators as standard AIS. Experimental results indicate that RAISE agrees closely with AIS log-probability estimates for RBMs, DBMs, and DBNs, but typically errs on the side of underestimating, rather than overestimating, the log-likelihood.

We recount recent history behind building compact models of nonlinear, complex processes and identifying their relevant macroscopic patterns or "macrostates". We give a synopsis of computational mechanics, predictive rate-distortion theory, and the role of information measures in monitoring model complexity and predictive performance. Computational mechanics provides a method to extract the optimal minimal predictive model for a given process. Rate-distortion theory provides methods for systematically approximating such models. We end by commenting on future prospects for developing a general framework that automatically discovers optimal compact models. As a response to the manuscript cited in the title above, this brief commentary corrects potentially misleading claims about its state space compression method and places it in a broader historical setting.

A continuous-time Markov process (CTMP) is a collection of variables indexed by a continuous quantity, time. It obeys the Markov property that the distribution over a future variable is independent of past variables given the state at the present time. We introduce continuous-time Markov process representations and algorithms for filtering, smoothing, expected sufficient statistics calculations, and model estimation, assuming no prior knowledge of continuous-time processes but some basic knowledge of probability and statistics. We begin by describing "flat" or unstructured Markov processes and then move to structured Markov processes (those arising from state spaces consisting of assignments to variables) including Kronecker, decision-diagram, and continuous-time Bayesian network representations. We provide the first connection between decision-diagrams and continuous-time Bayesian networks.

Model selection is indispensable to high-dimensional sparse modeling in selecting the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate models. Most existing work assumes implicitly that the model is correctly specified or of fixed dimensions. Yet model misspecification and high dimensionality are common in real applications. In this paper, we investigate two classical Kullback-Leibler divergence and Bayesian principles of model selection in the setting of high-dimensional misspecified models. Asymptotic expansions of these principles reveal that the effect of model misspecification is crucial and should be taken into account, leading to the generalized AIC and generalized BIC in high dimensions. With a natural choice of prior probabilities, we suggest the generalized BIC with prior probability which involves a logarithmic factor of the dimensionality in penalizing model complexity. We further establish the consistency of the covariance contrast matrix estimator in a general setting. Our results and new method are supported by numerical studies.

This paper considers statistical estimation problems where the probability distribution of the observed random variable is invariant with respect to actions of a finite topological group. It is shown that any such distribution must satisfy a restricted finite mixture representation. When specialized to the case of distributions over the sphere that are invariant to the actions of a finite spherical symmetry group $\mathcal G$, a group-invariant extension of the Von Mises Fisher (VMF) distribution is obtained. The $\mathcal G$-invariant VMF is parameterized by location and scale parameters that specify the distribution's mean orientation and its concentration about the mean, respectively. Using the restricted finite mixture representation these parameters can be estimated using an Expectation Maximization (EM) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation algorithm. This is illustrated for the problem of mean crystal orientation estimation under the spherically symmetric group associated with the crystal form, e.g., cubic or octahedral or hexahedral. Simulations and experiments establish the advantages of the extended VMF EM-ML estimator for data acquired by Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) microscopy of a polycrystalline Nickel alloy sample.

As a consequence of the strong and usually violated conditional independence assumption (CIA) of naive Bayes (NB) classifier, the performance of NB becomes less and less favorable compared to sophisticated classifiers when the sample size increases. We learn from this phenomenon that when the size of the training data is large, we should either relax the assumption or apply NB to a "reduced" data set, say for example use NB as a local model. The latter approach trades the ignored information for the robustness to the model assumption. In this paper, we consider using NB as a model for locally weighted data. A special weighting function is designed so that if CIA holds for the unweighted data, it also holds for the weighted data. The new method is intuitive and capable of handling class imbalance. It is theoretically more sound than the locally weighted learners of naive Bayes that base classification only on the $k$ nearest neighbors. Empirical study shows that the new method with appropriate choice of parameter outperforms seven existing classifiers of similar nature.

Face verification remains a challenging problem in very complex conditions with large variations such as pose, illumination, expression, and occlusions. This problem is exacerbated when we rely unrealistically on a single training data source, which is often insufficient to cover the intrinsically complex face variations. This paper proposes a principled multi-task learning approach based on Discriminative Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model, named GaussianFace, to enrich the diversity of training data. In comparison to existing methods, our model exploits additional data from multiple source-domains to improve the generalization performance of face verification in an unknown target-domain. Importantly, our model can adapt automatically to complex data distributions, and therefore can well capture complex face variations inherent in multiple sources. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in learning from diverse data sources and generalize to unseen domain. Specifically, the accuracy of our algorithm achieves an impressive accuracy rate of 98.52% on the well-known and challenging Labeled Faces in the Wild (LFW) benchmark. For the first time, the human-level performance in face verification (97.53%) on LFW is surpassed.