Effective tutoring requires personalization of the interaction to each student.Continuous and efficient assessment of the student's skills are a prerequisite for such personalization.We developed a Bayesian active-learning algorithm that continuously and efficiently assesses a child's word-reading skills and implemented it in a social robot.We then developed an integrated experimental paradigm in which a child plays a novel story-creation tablet game with the robot.The robot is portrayed as a younger peer who wishes to learn to read, framing the assessment of the child's word-reading skills as well as empowering the child.We show that our algorithm results in an accurate representation of the child's word-reading skills for a large age range, 4-8 year old children, and large initial reading skill range.We also show that employing child-specific assessment-based tutoring results in an age- and initial reading skill-independent learning, compared to random tutoring.Finally, our integrated system enables us to show that implementing the same learning algorithm on the robot's reading skills results in knowledge that is comparable to what the child thinks the robot has learned.The child's perception of the robot's knowledge is age-dependent and may facilitate an indirect assessment of the development of theory-of-mind.

Transcribed speech is a critical resource for building statistical speech recognition systems. Recent work has looked towards soliciting transcriptions for large speech corpora from native speakers of the language using crowdsourcing techniques. However, native speakers of the target language may not be readily available for crowdsourcing. We examine the following question: can humans unfamiliar with the target language help transcribe? We follow an information-theoretic approach to this problem: (1) We learn the characteristics of a noisy channel that models the transcribers' systematic perception biases. (2) We use an error-correcting code, specifically a repetition code, to encode the inputs to this channel, in conjunction with a maximum-likelihood decoding rule. To demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we transcribe isolated Hindi words with the help of Mechanical Turk workers unfamiliar with Hindi. We successfully recover Hindi words with an accuracy of over 85% (and 94% in a 4-best list) using a 15-fold repetition code. We also estimate the conditional entropy of the input to this channel (Hindi words) given the channel output (transcripts from crowdsourced workers) to be less than 2 bits; this serves as a theoretical estimate of the average number of bits of auxiliary information required for errorless recovery.

Increased interest in web-based education has spurred the proliferation of online learning environments. However, these platforms suffer from high dropout rates due to lack of sustained motivation among the students taking the course. In an effort to address this problem, we propose an incentive-based, instructor-driven approach to orchestrate the interactions in online educational forums (OEFs). Our approach takes into account the heterogeneity in skills among the students as well as the limited budget available to the instructor. We first analytically model OEFs in a non-strategic setting using ideas from lumpable continuous time Markov chains and compute expected aggregate transient net-rewards for the instructor and the students. We next consider a strategic setting where we use the rewards computed above to set up a mixed-integer linear program which views an OEF as a single-leader-multiple-followers Stackelberg game and recommends an optimal plan to the instructor for maximizing student participation. Our experimental results reveal several interesting phenomena including a striking non-monotonicity in the level of participation of students vis-a-vis the instructor's arrival rate.

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters has significantly increased over the past decades and this trend is predicted to continue. Facing these possible and unexpected disasters, understanding and simulating of human emergency mobility following disasters will becomethe critical issue for planning effective humanitarian relief, disaster management, and long-term societal reconstruction. However, due to the uniquenessof various disasters and the unavailability of reliable and large scale human mobility data, such kind of research is very difficult to be performed. Hence, in this paper,we collect big and heterogeneous data (e.g. 1.6 million users' GPS records in three years, 17520 times of Japan earthquake data in four years, news reporting data, transportation network data and etc.) to capture and analyze human emergency mobility following different disasters. By mining these big data, we aim to understand what basic laws govern human mobility following disasters, and develop a general model of human emergency mobility for generating and simulating large amount of human emergency movements. The experimental results and validations demonstrate the efficiency of our simulation model, and suggest that human mobility following disasters may be significantly morepredictable and can be easier simulated than previously thought.

Energy disaggregation, the task of taking a whole home electricity signal and decomposing it into its component appliances, has been proved to be essential in energy conservation research. One powerful cue for breaking down the entire household's energy consumption is user's daily energy usage behavior, which has so far received little attention: existing works on energy disaggregation mostly ignored the relationship between the energy usages of various appliances across different time slots. To model such relationship, we combine topic models with Hawkes processes, and propose a novel probabilistic model based on marked Hawkes process that enables the modeling of marked event data. The proposed model seeks to capture the influence from the occurrence and the marks of one usage event to the occurrence and the marks of subsequent usage events in the future. We also develop an inference algorithm based on variational inference for model parameter estimation. Experimental results on both synthetic data and three real world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, which outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in decomposing the entire consumed energy to each appliance. Analyzing the influence captured by the proposed model provides further insights into numerous interesting energy usage behavior patterns.

Renewable power sources such as wind and solar are inflexible in their energy production, which requires demand to rapidly follow supply in order to maintain energy balance. Promising controllable demands are air-conditioners and heat pumps which use electric energy to maintain a temperature at a setpoint. Such Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCLs) have been shown to be able to follow a power curve using reactive control. In this paper we investigate the use of planning under uncertainty to pro-actively control an aggregation of TCLs to overcome temporary grid imbalance. We present a formal definition of the planning problem under consideration, which we model using the Multi-Agent Markov Decision Process (MMDP) framework. Since we are dealing with hundreds of agents, solving the resulting MMDPs directly is intractable. Instead, we propose to decompose the problem by decoupling the interactions through arbitrage. Decomposition of the problem means relaxing the joint power consumption constraint, which means that joining the plans together can cause overconsumption. Arbitrage acts as a conflict resolution mechanism during policy execution, using the future expected value of policies to determine which TCLs should receive the available energy. We experimentally compare several methods to plan with arbitrage, and conclude that a best response-like mechanism is a scalable approach that returns near-optimal solutions.

Fast and efficient learning over large bodies of commonsense knowledge is a key requirement for cognitive systems. Semantic web knowledge bases provide an important new resource of ground facts from which plausible inferences can be learned. This paper applies structured logistic regression with analogical generalization (SLogAn) to make use of structural as well as statistical information to achieve rapid and robust learning. SLogAn achieves state-of-the-art performance in a standard triplet classification task on two data sets and, in addition, can provide understandable explanations for its answers.

Notions of identity and of the self have long been studied in social psychology and sociology as key guiding elements of social interaction and coordination. In the AI of the future, these notions will also play a role in producing natural, socially appropriate artificially intelligent agents that encompass subtle and complex human social and affective skills. We propose here a Bayesian generalization of the sociological affect control theory of self as a theoretical foundation for socio-affectively skilled artificial agents. This theory posits that each human maintains an internal model of his or her deep sense of "self" that captures their emotional, psychological, and socio-cultural sense of being in the world. The "self" is then externalised as an identity within any given interpersonal and institutional situation, and this situational identity is the person's local (in space and time) representation of the self. Situational identities govern the actions of humans according to affect control theory. Humans will seek situations that allow them to enact identities consistent with their sense of self. This consistency is cumulative over time: if some parts of a person's self are not actualized regularly, the person will have a growing feeling of inauthenticity that they will seek to resolve. In our present generalisation, the self is represented as a probability distribution, allowing it to be multi-modal (a person can maintain multiple different identities), uncertain (a person can be unsure about who they really are), and learnable (agents can learn the identities and selves of other agents). We show how the Bayesian affect control theory of self can underpin artificial agents that are socially intelligent.

The task of predicting retweet behavior is an important and essential step for various social network applications, such as business intelligence, popular event prediction, and so on. Due to the increasing requirements, in recent years, the task has attracted extensive attentions. In this work, we propose a novel method using non-parametric statistical models to combine structural, textual, and temporal information together to predict retweet behavior. To evaluate the proposed method, we collect a large number of microblogs and their corresponding social networks from a real microblog service. Experimental results on the constructed dataset demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better performance than state-of-the-art methods. The relative improvement of the the proposed over the method using only textual information is more than 38.5% in terms of F1-Score.

Pair-wise ranking methods have been widely used in recommender systems to deal with implicit feedback. They attempt to discriminate between a handful of observed items and the large set of unobserved items. In these approaches, however, user preferences and item characteristics cannot be estimated reliably due to overfitting given highly sparse data. To alleviate this problem, in this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian framework which incorporates ``bag-of-words'' type meta-data on items into pair-wise ranking models for one-class collaborative filtering. The main idea of our method lies in extending the pair-wise ranking with a probabilistic topic modeling. Instead of regularizing item factors through a zero-mean Gaussian prior, our method introduces item-specific topic proportions as priors for item factors. As a by-product, interpretable latent factors for users and items may help explain recommendations in some applications. We conduct an experimental study on a real and publicly available dataset, and the results show that our algorithm is effective in providing accurate recommendation and interpreting user factors and item factors.