In this paper, we study the finite-sample statistical rates of distributional temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation. The purpose of distributional TD learning is to estimate the return distribution of a discounted Markov decision process for a given policy. Previous works on statistical analysis of distributional TD learning focus mainly on the tabular case. We first consider the linear function approximation setting and conduct a fine-grained analysis of the linear-categorical Bellman equation. Building on this analysis, we further incorporate variance reduction techniques in our new algorithms to establish tight sample complexity bounds independent of the support size $K$ when $K$ is large. Our theoretical results imply that, when employing distributional TD learning with linear function approximation, learning the full distribution of the return function from streaming data is no more difficult than learning its expectation. This work provide new insights into the statistical efficiency of distributional reinforcement learning algorithms.

We propose the Modified Mahalanobis Distance Conformal Prediction (MMDCP), a unified framework for multi-class classification and outlier detection under label shift, where the training and test distributions may differ. In such settings, many existing methods construct nonconformity scores based on empirical cumulative or density functions combined with data-splitting strategies. However, these approaches are often computationally expensive due to their heavy reliance on resampling procedures and tend to produce overly conservative prediction sets with unstable coverage, especially in small samples. To address these challenges, MMDCP combines class-specific distance measures with full conformal prediction to construct a score function, thereby producing adaptive prediction sets that effectively capture both inlier and outlier structures. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish convergence rates for the resulting sets and provide the first theoretical characterization of the gap between oracle and empirical conformal $p$-values, which ensures valid coverage and effective control of the class-wise false discovery rate (CW-FDR). We further introduce the Summarized Class-Wise FDR (SCW-FDR), a novel global error metric aggregating false discoveries across classes, and show that it can be effectively controlled within the MMDCP framework. Extensive simulations and two real-data applications support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method.

Coral bleaching is a major concern for marine ecosystems; more than half of the world's coral reefs have either bleached or died over the past three decades. Increasing sea surface temperatures, along with various spatiotemporal environmental factors, are considered the primary reasons behind coral bleaching. The statistical and machine learning communities have focused on multiple aspects of the environment in detail. However, the literature on various stochastic modeling approaches for assessing coral bleaching is extremely scarce. Data-driven strategies are crucial for effective reef management, and this review article provides an overview of existing statistical and machine learning methods for assessing coral bleaching. Statistical frameworks, including simple regression models, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, Bayesian regression models, spatiotemporal models, and resilience indicators, such as Fisher's Information and Variance Index, are commonly used to explore how different environmental stressors influence coral bleaching. On the other hand, machine learning methods, including random forests, decision trees, support vector machines, and spatial operators, are more popular for detecting nonlinear relationships, analyzing high-dimensional data, and allowing integration of heterogeneous data from diverse sources. In addition to summarizing these models, we also discuss potential data-driven future research directions, with a focus on constructing statistical and machine learning models in specific contexts related to coral bleaching.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

Adversarial robustness remains a critical challenge in deploying neural network classifiers, particularly in real-time systems where ground-truth labels are unavailable during inference. This paper investigates \textit{Volatility in Certainty} (VC), a recently proposed, label-free metric that quantifies irregularities in model confidence by measuring the dispersion of sorted softmax outputs. Specifically, VC is defined as the average squared log-ratio of adjacent certainty values, capturing local fluctuations in model output smoothness. We evaluate VC as a proxy for classification accuracy and as an indicator of adversarial drift. Experiments are conducted on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained on MNIST, as well as a regularized VGG-like model trained on CIFAR-10. Adversarial examples are generated using the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM) across varying perturbation magnitudes. In addition, mixed test sets are created by gradually introducing adversarial contamination to assess VC's sensitivity under incremental distribution shifts. Our results reveal a strong negative correlation between classification accuracy and log(VC) (correlation rho < -0.90 in most cases), suggesting that VC effectively reflects performance degradation without requiring labeled data. These findings position VC as a scalable, architecture-agnostic, and real-time performance metric suitable for early-warning systems in safety-critical applications.

In this study, we tackle the challenging task of predicting secondary structures from protein primary sequences, a pivotal initial stride towards predicting tertiary structures, while yielding crucial insights into protein activity, relationships, and functions. Existing methods often utilize extensive sets of unlabeled amino acid sequences. However, these approaches neither explicitly capture nor harness the accessible protein 3D structural data, which is recognized as a decisive factor in dictating protein functions. To address this, we utilize protein residue graphs and introduce various forms of sequential or structural connections to capture enhanced spatial information. We adeptly combine Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Language Models (LMs), specifically utilizing a pre-trained transformer-based protein language model to encode amino acid sequences and employing message-passing mechanisms like GCN and R-GCN to capture geometric characteristics of protein structures. Employing convolution within a specific node's nearby region, including relations, we stack multiple con-volutional layers to efficiently learn combined insights from the protein's spatial graph, revealing intricate interconnections and dependencies in its structural To assess our model's performance, we employed the training dataset provided by NetSurfP-2.0, which outlines secondary structure in 3-and 8-states. Extensive experiments show that our proposed model, SSRGNet surpasses the baseline on f1-scores. Introduction Proteins serve as essential components within cells and are involved in various applications, spanning from therapeutics to materials. They are composed of a sequence of amino acids that fold into distinct shapes. With the development of affordable sequencing technologies [1, 2], a substantial number of novel protein sequences have been identified in recent times. However, annotating the functional properties of a newly discovered protein sequence is still a laborious and expensive process. Thus, there is a need for reliable and efficient computational methods to accurately predict and assign functions to proteins, thereby bridging the gap between sequence information and functional knowledge. The analysis of protein structure, particularly the tertiary structure, is highly significant for practical applications related to proteins, such as understanding their functions and designing drugs [3].

The problem of cooperative data censoring in battery-powered multihop sensor networks is analyzed in this paper. We are interested in scenarios where nodes generate messages (which are related to the sensor measurements) that can be graded with some importance value. Less important messages can be censored in order to save energy for later communications. The problem is modeled using a joint Markov Decision Process of the whole network dynamics, and a theoretically optimal censoring policy, which maximizes a long-term reward, is found. Though the optimal censoring rules are computationally prohibitive, our analysis suggests that, under some conditions, they can be approximated by a finite collection of constant-threshold rules. A centralized algorithm for the computation of these thresholds is proposed. The experimental simulations show that cooperative censoring policies are energy-efficient, and outperform other non-cooperative schemes.

Accurate healthcare prediction is critical for improving patient outcomes and reducing operational costs. Bolstered by growing reasoning capabilities, large language models (LLMs) offer a promising path to enhance healthcare predictions by drawing on their rich parametric knowledge. However, LLMs are prone to factual inaccuracies due to limitations in the reliability and coverage of their embedded knowledge. While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) frameworks, such as GraphRAG and its variants, have been proposed to mitigate these issues by incorporating external knowledge, they face two key challenges in the healthcare scenario: (1) identifying the clinical necessity to activate the retrieval mechanism, and (2) achieving synergy between the retriever and the generator to craft contextually appropriate retrievals. To address these challenges, we propose GHAR, a \underline{g}enerative \underline{h}ierarchical \underline{a}gentic \underline{R}AG framework that simultaneously resolves when to retrieve and how to optimize the collaboration between submodules in healthcare. Specifically, for the first challenge, we design a dual-agent architecture comprising Agent-Top and Agent-Low. Agent-Top acts as the primary physician, iteratively deciding whether to rely on parametric knowledge or to initiate retrieval, while Agent-Low acts as the consulting service, summarising all task-relevant knowledge once retrieval was triggered. To tackle the second challenge, we innovatively unify the optimization of both agents within a formal Markov Decision Process, designing diverse rewards to align their shared goal of accurate prediction while preserving their distinct roles. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets across three popular tasks demonstrate our superiority over state-of-the-art baselines, highlighting the potential of hierarchical agentic RAG in advancing healthcare systems.

Task decomposition has shown promise in complex cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) tasks, which enables efficient hierarchical learning for long-horizon tasks in dynamic and uncertain environments. However, learning dynamic task decomposition from scratch generally requires a large number of training samples, especially exploring the large joint action space under partial observability. In this paper, we present the Conditional Diffusion Model for Dynamic Task Decomposition (C$\text{D}^\text{3}$T), a novel two-level hierarchical MARL framework designed to automatically infer subtask and coordination patterns. The high-level policy learns subtask representation to generate a subtask selection strategy based on subtask effects. To capture the effects of subtasks on the environment, C$\text{D}^\text{3}$T predicts the next observation and reward using a conditional diffusion model. At the low level, agents collaboratively learn and share specialized skills within their assigned subtasks. Moreover, the learned subtask representation is also used as additional semantic information in a multi-head attention mixing network to enhance value decomposition and provide an efficient reasoning bridge between individual and joint value functions. Experimental results on various benchmarks demonstrate that C$\text{D}^\text{3}$T achieves better performance than existing baselines.