Modeling causal dependencies often demands cycles at a coarse-grained temporal scale. If Bayesian networks are to be used for modeling uncertainties, cycles are eliminated with dynamic Bayesian networks, spreading indirect dependencies over time and enforcing an infinitesimal resolution of time. Without a "causal design," i.e., without anticipating indirect influences appropriately in time, we argue that such networks return spurious results. By introducing activator random variables, we propose template fragments for modeling dynamic Bayesian networks under a causal use of time, anticipating indirect influences on a solid mathematical basis, obeying the laws of Bayesian networks.

We consider the problem of learning the optimal policy of an unknown Markov decision process (MDP) when expert demonstrations are available along with interaction samples. We build on classification-based policy iteration to perform a seamless integration of interaction and expert data, thus obtaining an algorithm which can benefit from both sources of information at the same time. Furthermore, we provide a full theoretical analysis of the performance across iterations providing insights on how the algorithm works. Finally, we report an empirical evaluation of the algorithm and a comparison with the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Image location prediction is to estimate the geolocation where an image is taken. Social image contains heterogeneous contents, which makes image location prediction nontrivial. Moreover, it is observed that image content patterns and location preferences correlate hierarchically. Traditional image location prediction methods mainly adopt a single-level architecture, which is not directly adaptable to the hierarchical correlation. In this paper, we propose a geographically hierarchical bi-modal deep belief network model (GH-BDBN), which is a compositional learning architecture that integrates multi-modal deep learning model with non-parametric hierarchical prior model. GH-BDBN learns a joint representation capturing the correlations among different types of image content using a bi-modal DBN, with a geographically hierarchical prior over the joint representation to model the hierarchical correlation between image content and location. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our model for image location prediction.

We propose a new Bayesian model for reliable aggregatio of crowdsourced estimates of real-valued quantities in participatory sensing applications. Existing approaches focus on probabilistic modelling of user’s reliability as the key to accurate aggregation. However, these are either limited to estimating discrete quantities, or require a significant number of reports from each user to accurately model their reliability. To mitigate these issues, we adopt a community-based approach, which reduces the data required to reliably aggregate real-valued estimates, by leveraging correlations between the reporting behaviour of users belonging to different communities. As a result, our method is up to 16.6% more accurate than existing state-of-the-art methods and is up to 49% more effective under data sparsity when used to estimate Wi-Fi hotspot locations in a real-world crowdsourcing application.

We propose a model, Lexicographic Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (LPOMDP), which extends POMDPs with lexicographic preferences over multiple value functions. It allows for slack--slightly less-than-optimal values--for higher-priority preferences to facilitate improvement in lower-priority value functions. Many real life situations are naturally captured by LPOMDPs with slack. We consider a semi-autonomous driving scenario in which time spent on the road is minimized, while maximizing time spent driving autonomously. We propose two solutions to LPOMDPs--Lexicographic Value Iteration (LVI) and Lexicographic Point-Based Value Iteration (LPBVI), establishing convergence results and correctness within strong slack bounds. We test the algorithms using real-world road data provided by Open Street Map (OSM) within 10 major cities. Finally, we present GPU-based optimizations for point-based solvers, demonstrating that their application enables us to quickly solve vastly larger LPOMDPs and other variations of POMDPs.

The recently proposed Gaussian process dynamical models (GPDMs) have been successfully applied to time series modeling. There are four learning algorithms for GPDMs: maximizing a posterior (MAP), fixing the kernel hyperparameters α _ (Fix.α _ ), balanced GPDM (B-GPDM) and two-stage MAP (T.MAP), which are designed for model training with complete data. When data are incomplete, GPDMs reconstruct the missing data using a function of the latent variables before parameter updates, which, however, may cause cumulative errors. In this paper, we present four new algorithms (MAP+, Fix.α + , B-GPDM+ and T.MAP+) for learning GPDMs with incomplete training data and a new conditional model (CM+) for recovering incomplete test data. Our methods adopt the Bayesian framework and can fully and properly use the partially observed data. We conduct experiments on incomplete motion capture data (walk, run, swing and multiple-walker) and make comparisons with the existing four algorithms as well as k-NN, spline interpolation and VGPDS. Our methods perform much better on both training with incomplete data and recovering incomplete test data.

Ontology matching is the process of finding semantic correspondences between entities from different ontologies. As an effective solution to linking different heterogeneous ontologies, ontology matching has attracted considerable attentions in recent years. In this paper, we propose a novel graph-based approach to ontology matching problem. Different from previous work, we formulate ontology matching as a random walk process on the association graph constructed from the to-be-matched ontologies. In particular, two variants of the conventional random walk process, namely, Affinity-Preserving Random Walk (APRW) and Mapping-Oriented Random Walk (MORW), have been proposed to alleviate the adverse effect of the false-mapping nodes in the association graph and to incorporate the 1-to-1 matching constraints presumed in ontology matching, respectively. Experiments on the Ontology Alignment Evaluation Initiative (OAEI) datasets show that our approach achieves a competitive performance when compared with state-of-the-art systems, even though our approach does not utilize any external resources.

Count-based estimators are a fundamental building block of a number of powerful sequential prediction algorithms, including Context Tree Weighting and Prediction by Partial Matching. Keeping exact counts, however, typically results in a high memory overhead. In particular, when dealing with large alphabets the memory requirements of count-based estimators often become prohibitive. In this paper we propose three novel ideas for approximating count-based estimators using bounded memory. Our first contribution, of independent interest, is an extension of reservoir sampling for sampling distinct symbols from a stream of unknown length, which we call K-distinct reservoir sampling. We combine this sampling scheme with a state-of-the-art count-based estimator for memoryless sources, the Sparse Adaptive Dirichlet (SAD) estimator. The resulting algorithm, the Budget SAD, naturally guarantees a limit on its memory usage. We finally demonstrate the broader use of K-distinct reservoir sampling in nonparametric estimation by using it to restrict the branching factor of the Context Tree Weighting algorithm. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithms with empirical results on two sequential, large-alphabet prediction problems.

In many POMDP applications in computational sustainability, it is important that the computed policy have a simple description, so that it can be easily interpreted by stakeholders and decision makers.  One measure of simplicity for POMDP value functions is the number of alpha-vectors required to represent the value function. Existing POMDP methods seek to optimize the accuracy of the value function, which can require a very large number of alpha-vectors. This paper studies methods that allow the user to explore the tradeoff between the accuracy of the value function and the number of alpha-vectors.  Building on previous point-based POMDP solvers, this paper introduces a new algorithm (alpha-min) that formulates a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) to calculate approximate solutions for finite-horizon POMDP problems with limited numbers of alpha-vectors. At each time-step, alpha-min calculates alpha-vectors to greedily minimize the gap between current upper and lower bounds of the value function. In doing so, good upper and lower bounds are quickly reached allowing a good approximation of the problem with few alpha-vectors . Experimental results show that alpha-min provides good approximate solutions given a fixed number of alpha-vectors on small benchmark problems, on a larger randomly generated problem, as well as on a computational sustainability problem to best manage the endangered Sumatran tiger.

We present Saul, a new probabilistic programming language designed to address some of the shortcomings of programming languages that aim at advancing and simplifying the development of AI systems. Such languages need to interact with messy, naturally occurring data, to allow a programmer to specify what needs to be done at an appropriate level of abstraction rather than at the data level, to be developed on a solid theory that supports moving to and reasoning at this level of abstraction and, finally, to support flexible integration of these learning and inference models within an application program. Saul is an object-functional programming language written in Scala that facilitates these by (1) allowing a programmer to learn, name and manipulate named abstractions over relational data; (2) supporting seamless incorporation of trainable (probabilistic or discriminative) components into the program, and (3) providing a level of inference over trainable models to support composition and make decisions that respect domain and application constraints. Saul is developed over a declaratively defined relational data model, can use piecewise learned factor graphs with declaratively specified learning and inference objectives, and it supports inference over probabilistic models augmented with declarative knowledge-based constraints.We describe the key constructs of Saul and exemplify its use in developing applications that require relational feature engineering and structured output prediction.