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 Learning Graphical Models


Autonomous Cross-Domain Knowledge Transfer in Lifelong Policy Gradient Reinforcement Learning

AAAI Conferences

Online multi-task learning is an important capability for lifelong learning agents, enabling them to acquire models for diverse tasks over time and rapidly learn new tasks by building upon prior experience. However, recent progress toward lifelong reinforcement learning (RL) has been limited to learning from within a single task domain. For truly versatile lifelong learning, the agent must be able to autonomously transfer knowledge between different task domains. A few methods for cross-domain transfer have been developed, but these methods are computationally inefficient for scenarios where the agent must learn tasks consecutively. In this paper, we develop the first cross-domain lifelong RL framework. Our approach efficiently optimizes a shared repository of transferable knowledge and learns projection matrices that specialize that knowledge to different task domains. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees on the stability of this approach, and empirically evaluate its performance on diverse dynamical systems. Our results show that the proposed method can learn effectively from interleaved task domains and rapidly acquire high performance in new domains.


A Personalised Thermal Comfort Model Using a Bayesian Network

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we address the challenge of predicting optimal comfort temperatures of individual users of a smart heating system. At present, such systems use simple models of user comfort when deciding on a set point temperature. These models generally fail to adapt to an individual user’s preferences, resulting in poor estimates of a user’s preferred temperature. To address this issue, we propose a personalised thermal comfort model that uses a Bayesian network to learn and adapt to a user’s individual preferences. Through an empirical evaluation based on the ASHRAE RP-884 data set, we show that our model is consistently 17.5- 23.5% more accurate than current models, regardless of environmental conditions and the type of heating system used. Our model is not limited to a single metric but can also infer information about expected user feedback, optimal comfort temperature and thermal sensitivity at the same time, which can be used to reduce energy used for heating with minimal comfort loss.


Computer Science on the Move: Inferring Migration Regularities from the Web via Compressed Label Propagation

AAAI Conferences

Therefore, we have to rely on an AI algorithm Many collective human activities have been shown to fill in the blank spots. More precisely, we provide a relational to exhibit universal patterns. However, the possibility view on Label Propagation (LP) [Zhu et al., 2003; of regularities underlying researcher migration Bengio et al., 2006] and introduce a novel way to significantly in computer science (CS) has barely been explored speed it up based on equitable partitions. We call the resulting at global scale. To a large extend, this is due algorithm Compressed Label Propagation (CLP) because to official and commercial records being restricted, the original LPgraph is "lifted" or rather "compressed" before incompatible between countries, and especially not running vanilla LP on the smaller graph. Running CLP registered across researchers. We overcome these results in the first translational dataset for more than a million limitations by building our own, transnational, computer scientists on which we then learn statistical migration large-scale dataset inferred from publicly available models explaining the results in sociologically plausible information on the Web. Essentially, we use Label ways. To verify the quality of our inferred geo-tags and Propagation (LP) to infer missing geo-tags of statistical models, we additionally run CLP on an orders-ofmagnitude author-paper-pairs retrieved from online bibliographies.


Factored Upper Bounds for Multiagent Planning Problems under Uncertainty with Non-Factored Value Functions

AAAI Conferences

Nowadays, multiagent planning under uncertainty scales to tens or even hundreds of agents. However, current methods either are restricted to problems with factored value functions, or provide solutions without any guarantees on quality. Methods in the former category typically build on heuristic search using upper bounds on the value function. Unfortunately, no techniques exist to compute such upper bounds for problems with non-factored value functions, which would additionally allow for meaningful benchmarking of methods of the latter category. To mitigate this problem, this paper introduces a family of influence-optimistic upper bounds for factored Dec-POMDPs without factored value functions. We demonstrate how we can achieve firm quality guarantees for problems with hundreds of agents.


Learning Behaviors in Agents Systems with Interactive Dynamic Influence Diagrams

AAAI Conferences

Interactive dynamic influence diagrams(I-DIDs) are a well recognized decision model that explicitly considers how multiagent interaction affects individual decision making. To predict behavior of other agents, I-DIDs require models of the other agents to be known ahead of time and manually encoded. This becomes a barrier to I-DID applications in a human-agent interaction setting, such as development of intelligent non-player characters(NPCs) in real-time strategy(RTS) games, where models of other agents or human players are often inaccessible to domain experts. In this paper, we use automatic techniques for learning behavior of other agents from replay data in RTS games. We propose a learning algorithm with improvement over existing work by building a full profile of agent behavior. This is the first time that data-driven learning techniques are embedded into the I-DID decision making framework. We evaluate the performance of our approach on two test cases.


A Scalable Community Detection Algorithm for Large Graphs Using Stochastic Block Models

AAAI Conferences

Community detection in graphs is widely used in social and biological networks, and the stochastic block model is a powerful probabilistic tool for describing graphs with community structures. However, in the era of ''big data,'' traditional inference algorithms for such a model are increasingly limited due to their high time complexity and poor scalability. In this paper, we propose a multi-stage maximum likelihood approach to recover the latent parameters of the stochastic block model, in time linear with respect to the number of edges. We also propose a parallel algorithm based on message passing. Our algorithm can overlap communication and computation, providing speedup without compromising accuracy as the number of processors grows. For example, to process a real-world graph with about 1.3 million nodes and 10 million edges, our algorithm requires about 6 seconds on 64 cores of a contemporary commodity Linux cluster. Experiments demonstrate that the algorithm can produce high quality results on both benchmark and real-world graphs. An example of finding more meaningful communities is illustrated consequently in comparison with a popular modularity maximization algorithm.


Optimization of Probabilistic Argumentation with Markov Decision Models

AAAI Conferences

One prominent way to deal with conflicting view-points among agents is to conduct an argumentative debate: by exchanging arguments, agents can seek to persuade each other. In this paper we investigate the problem, for an agent, of optimizing a sequence of moves to be put forward in a debate, against an opponent assumed to behave stochastically, and equipped with an unknown initial belief state. Despite the prohibitive number of states induced by a naive mapping to Markov models, we show that exploiting several features of such interaction settings allows for optimal resolution in practice, in particular: (1) as debates take place in a public space (or common ground), they can readily be modelled as Mixed Observability Markov Decision Processes, (2) as argumentation problems are highly structured, one can design optimization techniques to prune the initial instance. We report on the experimental evaluation of these techniques.


Probabilistic Inference in Hybrid Domains by Weighted Model Integration

AAAI Conferences

Weighted model counting (WMC) on a propositional knowledge base is an effective and general approach to probabilistic inference in a variety of formalisms, including Bayesian and Markov Networks. However, an inherent limitation of WMC is that it only admits the inference of discrete probability distributions. In this paper, we introduce a strict generalization of WMC called weighted model integration that is based on annotating Boolean and arithmetic constraints, and combinations thereof. This methodology is shown to capture discrete, continuous and hybrid Markov networks. We then consider the task of parameter learning for a fragment of the language. An empirical evaluation demonstrates the applicability and promise of the proposal.


Bonus or Not? Learn to Reward in Crowdsourcing

AAAI Conferences

Recent work has shown that the quality of work produced in a crowdsourcing working session can be influenced by the presence of performance-contingent financial incentives, such as bonuses for exceptional performance, in the session. We take an algorithmic approach to decide when to offer bonuses in a working session to improve the overall utility that a requester derives from the session. Specifically, we propose and train an input-output hidden Markov model to learn the impact of bonuses on work quality and then use this model to dynamically decide whether to offer a bonus on each task in a working session to maximize a requester’s utility. Experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk show that our approach leads to higher utility for the requester than fixed and random bonus schemes do. Simulations on synthesized data sets further demonstrate the robustness of our approach against different worker population and worker behavior in improving requester utility.


Optimal Network Security Hardening Using Attack Graph Games

AAAI Conferences

Preventing attacks in a computer network is the core problem in network security. We introduce a new game-theoretic model of the interaction between a network administrator who uses limited resource to harden a network and an attacker who follows a multi-stage plan to attack the network. The possible plans of the attacker are compactly represented using attack graphs, while the defender adds fake targets (honeypots) to the network to deceive the attacker. The compact representation of the attacker's strategies presents a computational challenge and finding the best response of the attacker is NP-hard. We present a solution method that first translates an attack graph into an MDP and solves it using policy search with a set of pruning techniques. We present an empirical evaluation of the model and solution algorithms, evaluating scalability, the types of solutions that are generated for realistic cases, and sensitivity analysis.