The need to estimate smooth probability distributions (a.k.a. probability densities) from finite sampled data is ubiquitous in science. Many approaches to this problem have been described, but none is yet regarded as providing a definitive solution. Maximum entropy estimation and Bayesian field theory are two such approaches. Both have origins in statistical physics, but the relationship between them has remained unclear. Here I unify these two methods by showing that every maximum entropy density estimate can be recovered in the infinite smoothness limit of an appropriate Bayesian field theory. I also show that Bayesian field theory estimation can be performed without imposing any boundary conditions on candidate densities, and that the infinite smoothness limit of these theories recovers the most common types of maximum entropy estimates. Bayesian field theory is thus seen to provide a natural test of the validity of the maximum entropy null hypothesis. Bayesian field theory also returns a lower entropy density estimate when the maximum entropy hypothesis is falsified. The computations necessary for this approach can be performed rapidly for one-dimensional data, and software for doing this is provided. Based on these results, I argue that Bayesian field theory is poised to provide a definitive solution to the density estimation problem in one dimension.

This paper is concerned with a lesser-studied problem in the context of model-based, uncertainty quantification (UQ), that of optimization/design/control under uncertainty. The solution of such problems is hindered not only by the usual difficulties encountered in UQ tasks (e.g. the high computational cost of each forward simulation, the large number of random variables) but also by the need to solve a nonlinear optimization problem involving large numbers of design variables and potentially constraints. We propose a framework that is suitable for a large class of such problems and is based on the idea of recasting them as probabilistic inference tasks. To that end, we propose a Variational Bayesian (VB) formulation and an iterative VB-Expectation-Maximization scheme that is also capable of identifying a low-dimensional set of directions in the design space, along which, the objective exhibits the largest sensitivity. We demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach in the context of two numerical examples involving $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ random and design variables. In all cases considered the cost of the computations in terms of calls to the forward model was of the order $\mathcal{O}(10^2)$. The accuracy of the approximations provided is assessed by appropriate information-theoretic metrics.

We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of inferring human mobility on sub-daily time scales from, for example, mobile phone records.

Recently, a framework for application-oriented optimal experiment design has been introduced. In this context, the distance of the estimated system from the true one is measured in terms of a particular end-performance metric. This treatment leads to superior unknown system estimates to classical experiment designs based on usual pointwise functional distances of the estimated system from the true one. The separation of the system estimator from the experiment design is done within this new framework by choosing and fixing the estimation method to either a maximum likelihood (ML) approach or a Bayesian estimator such as the minimum mean square error (MMSE). Since the MMSE estimator delivers a system estimate with lower mean square error (MSE) than the ML estimator for finite-length experiments, it is usually considered the best choice in practice in signal processing and control applications. Within the application-oriented framework a related meaningful question is: Are there end-performance metrics for which the ML estimator outperforms the MMSE when the experiment is finite-length? In this paper, we affirmatively answer this question based on a simple linear Gaussian regression example.

We have recently shown that deep Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs) outperform feed forward deep neural networks (DNNs) as acoustic models for speech recognition. More recently, we have shown that the performance of sequence trained context dependent (CD) hidden Markov model (HMM) acoustic models using such LSTM RNNs can be equaled by sequence trained phone models initialized with connectionist temporal classification (CTC). In this paper, we present techniques that further improve performance of LSTM RNN acoustic models for large vocabulary speech recognition. We show that frame stacking and reduced frame rate lead to more accurate models and faster decoding. CD phone modeling leads to further improvements.

Hidden Markov models have successfully been applied as models of discrete time series in many fields. Often, when applied in practice, the parameters of these models have to be estimated. The currently predominating identification methods, such as maximum-likelihood estimation and especially expectation-maximization, are iterative and prone to have problems with local minima. A non-iterative method employing a spectral subspace-like approach has recently been proposed in the machine learning literature. This paper evaluates the performance of this algorithm, and compares it to the performance of the expectation-maximization algorithm, on a number of numerical examples. We find that the performance is mixed; it successfully identifies some systems with relatively few available observations, but fails completely for some systems even when a large amount of observations is available. An open question is how this discrepancy can be explained. We provide some indications that it could be related to how well-conditioned some system parameters are.

Mixture models are powerful statistical models used in many applications ranging from density estimation to clustering and classification. When dealing with mixture models, there are many issues that the experimenter should be aware of and needs to solve. The MixEst toolbox is a powerful and user-friendly package for MATLAB that implements several state-of-the-art approaches to address these problems. Additionally, MixEst gives the possibility of using manifold optimization for fitting the density model, a feature specific to this toolbox. MixEst simplifies using and integration of mixture models in statistical models and applications. For developing mixture models of new densities, the user just needs to provide a few functions for that statistical distribution and the toolbox takes care of all the issues regarding mixture models. MixEst is available at visionlab.ut.ac.ir/mixest and is fully documented and is licensed under GPL.

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze streams of data. It approximates a new type of distribution, the population posterior, which combines the notion of a population distribution of the data with Bayesian inference in a probabilistic model. We study our method with latent Dirichlet allocation and Dirichlet process mixtures on several large-scale data sets.

Recent years have seen the development of methods for multiagent planning under uncertainty that scale to tens or even hundreds of agents. However, most of these methods either make restrictive assumptions on the problem domain, or provide approximate solutions without any guarantees on quality. Methods in the former category typically build on heuristic search using upper bounds on the value function. Unfortunately, no techniques exist to compute such upper bounds for problems with non-factored value functions. To allow for meaningful benchmarking through measurable quality guarantees on a very general class of problems, this paper introduces a family of influence-optimistic upper bounds for factored decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) that do not have factored value functions. Intuitively, we derive bounds on very large multiagent planning problems by subdividing them in sub-problems, and at each of these sub-problems making optimistic assumptions with respect to the influence that will be exerted by the rest of the system. We numerically compare the different upper bounds and demonstrate how we can achieve a non-trivial guarantee that a heuristic solution for problems with hundreds of agents is close to optimal. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the upper bounds may improve the effectiveness of heuristic influence search, and discuss further potential applications to multiagent planning.

Compressive sensing (CS) exploits sparsity to recover sparse or compressible signals from dimensionality reducing, non-adaptive sensing mechanisms. Sparsity is also used to enhance interpretability in machine learning and statistics applications: While the ambient dimension is vast in modern data analysis problems, the relevant information therein typically resides in a much lower dimensional space. However, many solutions proposed nowadays do not leverage the true underlying structure. Recent results in CS extend the simple sparsity idea to more sophisticated {\em structured} sparsity models, which describe the interdependency between the nonzero components of a signal, allowing to increase the interpretability of the results and lead to better recovery performance. In order to better understand the impact of structured sparsity, in this chapter we analyze the connections between the discrete models and their convex relaxations, highlighting their relative advantages. We start with the general group sparse model and then elaborate on two important special cases: the dispersive and the hierarchical models. For each, we present the models in their discrete nature, discuss how to solve the ensuing discrete problems and then describe convex relaxations. We also consider more general structures as defined by set functions and present their convex proxies. Further, we discuss efficient optimization solutions for structured sparsity problems and illustrate structured sparsity in action via three applications.