Normalized random measures (NRMs) provide a broad class of discrete random measures that are often used as priors for Bayesian nonparametric models. Dirichlet process is a well-known example of NRMs. Most of posterior inference methods for NRM mixture models rely on MCMC methods since they are easy to implement and their convergence is well studied. However, MCMC often suffers from slow convergence when the acceptance rate is low. Tree-based inference is an alternative deterministic posterior inference method, where Bayesian hierarchical clustering (BHC) or incremental Bayesian hierarchical clustering (IBHC) have been developed for DP or NRM mixture (NRMM) models, respectively. Although IBHC is a promising method for posterior inference for NRMM models due to its efficiency and applicability to online inference, its convergence is not guaranteed since it uses heuristics that simply selects the best solution after multiple trials are made. In this paper, we present a hybrid inference algorithm for NRMM models, which combines the merits of both MCMC and IBHC. Trees built by IBHC outlinespartitions of data, which guides Metropolis-Hastings procedure to employ appropriate proposals. Inheriting the nature of MCMC, our tree-guided MCMC (tgMCMC) is guaranteed to converge, and enjoys the fast convergence thanks to the effective proposals guided by trees. Experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets demonstrate the benefit of our method.

Learning of low dimensional structure in multidimensional data is a canonical problem in machine learning. One common approach is to suppose that the observed data are close to a lower-dimensional smooth manifold. There are a rich variety of manifold learning methods available, which allow mapping of data points to the manifold. However, there is a clear lack of probabilistic methods that allow learning of the manifold along with the generative distribution of the observed data. The best attempt is the Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), but identifiability issues lead to poor performance. We solve these issues by proposing a novel Coulomb repulsive process (Corp) for locations of points on the manifold, inspired by physical models of electrostatic interactions among particles. Combining this process with a GP prior for the mapping function yields a novel electrostatic GP (electroGP) process. Focusing on the simple case of a one-dimensional manifold, we develop efficient inference algorithms, and illustrate substantially improved performance in a variety of experiments including filling in missing frames in video.

Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult for non-experts to use. We propose an automatic variational inference algorithm, automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI); we implement it in Stan (code available), a probabilistic programming system. In ADVI the user provides a Bayesian model and a dataset, nothing else. We make no conjugacy assumptions and support a broad class of models. The algorithm automatically determines an appropriate variational family and optimizes the variational objective. We compare ADVI to MCMC sampling across hierarchical generalized linear models, nonconjugate matrix factorization, and a mixture model. We train the mixture model on a quarter million images. With ADVI we can use variational inference on any model we write in Stan.

In this paper we address the problem of decision making within a Markov decision process (MDP) framework where risk and modeling errors are taken into account. Our approach is to minimize a risk-sensitive conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) objective, as opposed to a standard risk-neutral expectation. We refer to such problem as CVaR MDP. Our first contribution is to show that a CVaR objective, besides capturing risk sensitivity, has an alternative interpretation as expected cost under worst-case modeling errors, for a given error budget. This result, which is of independent interest, motivates CVaR MDPs as a unifying framework for risk-sensitive and robust decision making. Our second contribution is to present a value-iteration algorithm for CVaR MDPs, and analyze its convergence rate. To our knowledge, this is the first solution algorithm for CVaR MDPs that enjoys error guarantees. Finally, we present results from numerical experiments that corroborate our theoretical findings and show the practicality of our approach.

We show that the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimate of models derived from Luce's choice axiom (e.g., the Plackett-Luce model) can be expressed as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. This conveys insight into several recently proposed spectral inference algorithms. We take advantage of this perspective and formulate a new spectral algorithm that is significantly more accurate than previous ones for the Plackett--Luce model. With a simple adaptation, this algorithm can be used iteratively, producing a sequence of estimates that converges to the ML estimate. The ML version runs faster than competing approaches on a benchmark of five datasets. Our algorithms are easy to implement, making them relevant for practitioners at large.

We provide a theoretical framework for analyzing basis function construction for linear value function approximation in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We show that important existing methods, such as Krylov bases and Bellman-error-based methods are a special case of the general framework we develop. We provide a general algorithmic framework for computing basis function refinements which “respect” the dynamics of the environment, and we derive approximation error bounds that apply for any algorithm respecting this general framework. We also show how, using ideas related to bisimulation metrics, one can translate basis refinement into a process of finding “prototypes” that are diverse enough to represent the given MDP.

Mixture modeling is a general technique for making any simple model more expressive through weighted combination. This generality and simplicity in part explains the success of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, in which updates are easy to derive for a wide class of mixture models. However, the likelihood of a mixture model is non-convex, so EM has no known global convergence guarantees. Recently, method of moments approaches offer global guarantees for some mixture models, but they do not extend easily to the range of mixture models that exist. In this work, we present Polymom, an unifying framework based on method of moments in which estimation procedures are easily derivable, just as in EM. Polymom is applicable when the moments of a single mixture component are polynomials of the parameters. Our key observation is that the moments of the mixture model are a mixture of these polynomials, which allows us to cast estimation as a Generalized Moment Problem. We solve its relaxations using semidefinite optimization, and then extract parameters using ideas from computer algebra. This framework allows us to draw insights and apply tools from convex optimization, computer algebra and the theory of moments to study problems in statistical estimation. Simulations show good empirical performance on several models.

Existing inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) algorithms have assumed each expert’s demonstrated trajectory to be produced by only a single reward function. This paper presents a novel generalization of the IRL problem that allows each trajectory to be generated by multiple locally consistent reward functions, hence catering to more realistic and complex experts’ behaviors. Solving our generalized IRL problem thus involves not only learning these reward functions but also the stochastic transitions between them at any state (including unvisited states). By representing our IRL problem with a probabilistic graphical model, an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm can be devised to iteratively learn the different reward functions and the stochastic transitions between them in order to jointly improve the likelihood of the expert’s demonstrated trajectories. As a result, the most likely partition of a trajectory into segments that are generated from different locally consistent reward functions selected by EM can be derived. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets shows that our IRL algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art EM clustering with maximum likelihood IRL, which is, interestingly, a reduced variant of our approach.

Causal structure learning from time series data is a major scientific challenge. Existing algorithms assume that measurements occur sufficiently quickly; more precisely, they assume that the system and measurement timescales are approximately equal. In many scientific domains, however, measurements occur at a significantly slower rate than the underlying system changes. Moreover, the size of the mismatch between timescales is often unknown. This paper provides three distinct causal structure learning algorithms, all of which discover all dynamic graphs that could explain the observed measurement data as arising from undersampling at some rate. That is, these algorithms all learn causal structure without assuming any particular relation between the measurement and system timescales; they are thus rate-agnostic. We apply these algorithms to data from simulations. The results provide insight into the challenge of undersampling.

This paper concerns the introduction of a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for posterior sampling in Bayesian nonparametric mixture models with priors that belong to the general Poisson-Kingman class. We present a novel and compact way of representing the infinite dimensional component of the model such that while explicitly representing this infinite component it has less memory and storage requirements than previous MCMC schemes. We describe comparative simulation results demonstrating the efficacy of the proposed MCMC algorithm against existing marginal and conditional MCMC samplers.