This paper presents a novel nonmyopic adaptive Gaussian process planning (GPP) framework endowed with a general class of Lipschitz continuous reward functions that can unify some active learning/sensing and Bayesian optimization criteria and offer practitioners some flexibility to specify their desired choices for defining new tasks/problems. In particular, it utilizes a principled Bayesian sequential decision problem framework for jointly and naturally optimizing the exploration-exploitation trade-off. In general, the resulting induced GPP policy cannot be derived exactly due to an uncountable set of candidate observations. A key contribution of our work here thus lies in exploiting the Lipschitz continuity of the reward functions to solve for a nonmyopic adaptive epsilon-optimal GPP (epsilon-GPP) policy. To plan in real time, we further propose an asymptotically optimal, branch-and-bound anytime variant of epsilon-GPP with performance guarantee. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our epsilon-GPP policy and its anytime variant in Bayesian optimization and an energy harvesting task.

We consider the problem of modeling temporal textual data taking endogenous and exogenous processes into account. Such text documents arise in real world applications, including job advertisements and economic news articles, which are influenced by the fluctuations of the general economy. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian topic model which imposes a "group-correlated" hierarchical structure on the evolution of topics over time incorporating both processes, and show that this model can be estimated from Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods. We further demonstrate that this model captures the intrinsic relationships between the topic distribution and the time-dependent factors, and compare its performance with latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and two other related models. The model is applied to two collections of documents to illustrate its empirical performance: online job advertisements from DirectEmployers Association and journalists' postings on BusinessInsider.com.

Probabilistic models with weighted formulas, known as Markov models or log-linear models, are used in many domains. Recent models of weighted orderings between elements that have been proposed as flexible tools to express preferences under uncertainty, are also potentially useful in applications like planning, temporal reasoning, and user modeling. Their computational properties are very different from those of conventional Markov models; because of the transitivity of the “less than” relation, standard methods that exploit structure of the models, such as variable elimination, are not directly applicable, as there are no conditional independencies between the orderings within connected components. The best known algorithms for general inference inthese models are exponential in the number of statements. Here, we present the first algorithms that exploit the available structure. We begin with the special case of models in the form of chains; we present an exact O(n^3) algorithm, where n is the total number of elements. Next, we generalize this technique to models in which the set of statements are comprised of arbitrary sets of atomic weighted preference formulas (while the query and evidence are conjunctions of atomic preference formulas), and the resulting exact algorithm runs in time O(m * n^2 * n^c), where m is the number of preference formulas, n is the number of elements, and c is the maximum number of elements in a linear cut (which depends both on the structure of the model and the order in which the elements are processed)—therefore, this algorithm is tractable for cases in which c can be bounded to a low value. Finally, we report on the results of an empirical evaluation of both algorithms, showing how they scale with reasonably-sized models.

Subjective opinions can represent uncertain probabilistic information of any kind, minor or major A Bayesian network (BN) is a compact representation of a imprecision and even total ignorance about the probability joint probability distribution in the form of a directed acyclic distribution, by varying the uncertainty mass between 0 and graph (DAG) with random variables as nodes, and a set 1. By simply substituting every input conditional probability of conditional probability distributions associated with each distribution in a BN with a subjective opinion, we obtain node representing the probabilistic connection of the node what we call a subjective Bayesian network.

We introduce the concept of weighted rules under the stable model semantics following the log-linear models of Markov Logic. This provides versatile methods to overcome the deterministic nature of the stable model semantics, such as resolving inconsistencies in answer set programs, ranking stable models, associating probability to stable models, and applying statistical inference to computing weighted stable models. We also present formal comparisons with related formalisms, such as answer set programs, Markov Logic, ProbLog, and P-log.

Knowledge compilation has been successfully used to solve beyond NP problems, including some PP-complete and NP PP -complete problems for Bayesian networks. In this work we show how knowledge compilation can be used to solve problems in the more intractable complexity class PP^PP.  This class contains NP PP and includes interesting AI problems, such as non-myopic value of information. We show how to solve the prototypical PP PP -complete problem MajMajsat in linear-time once the problem instance is compiled into a special class of Sentential Decision Diagrams. To show the practical value of our approach, we adapt it to answer the Same-Decision Probability (SDP) query, which was recently introduced for Bayesian networks. The SDP problem is also PP PP P-complete. It is a value-of-information query that quantifies the robustness of threshold-based decisions and comes with a corresponding algorithm that was also recently proposed. We present favorable experimental results, comparing our new algorithm based on knowledge compilation with the state-of-the-art algorithm for computing the SDP.

We provide new insights into the area of combining abstract argumentation frameworks with probabilistic reasoning. In particular, we consider the scenario when assessments on the probabilities of a subset of the arguments is given and the probabilities of the remaining arguments have to be derived, taking both the topology of the argumentation framework and principles of probabilistic reasoning into account. We generalize this scenario by also considering inconsistent assessments, i.e., assessments that contradict the topology of the argumentation framework. Building on approaches to inconsistency measurement, we present a general framework to measure the amount of conflict of these assessments and provide a method for inconsistent-tolerant reasoning.

Human mobility modeling for either transportation system development or individual location based services has a tangible impact on people's everyday experience. In recent years cell phone data has received a lot of attention as a promising data source because of the wide coverage, long observation period, and low cost. The challenge in utilizing such data is how to robustly extract people's trip sequences from sparse and noisy cell phone data and endow the extracted trips with semantic meaning, i.e., trip purposes.In this study we reconstruct trip sequences from sparse cell phone records. Next we propose a Bayesian trip purpose classification method and compare it to a Markov random field based trip purpose clustering method, representing scenarios with and without labeled training data respectively. This procedure shows how the cell phone data, despite their coarse granularity and sparsity, can be turned into a low cost, long term, and ubiquitous sensor network for mobility related services.

The biggest limitation of probabilistic graphical models is the complexity of inference, which is often intractable. An appealing alternative is to use tractable probabilistic models, such as arithmetic circuits (ACs) and sum-product networks (SPNs), in which marginal and conditional queries can be answered efficiently. In this paper, we present the first discriminative structure learning algorithm for ACs, DACLearn (Discriminative AC Learner), which optimizes conditional log-likelihood. Based on our experiments, DACLearn learns models that are more accurate and compact than other tractable generative and discriminative baselines.

We cast the Proactive Learning (PAL) problem—Active Learning (AL) with multiple reluctant, fallible, cost-varying oracles—as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). The agent selects an oracle at each time step to label a data point, while it maintains a belief over the true underlying correctness of its current dataset’s labels. The goal is to minimize labeling costs while considering the value of obtaining correct labels, thus maximizing final resultant classifier accuracy. We prove three properties that show our particular formulation leads to a structured and bounded-size set of belief points, enabling strong performance of point-based methods to solve the POMDP. Our method is compared with the original three algorithms proposed by Donmez and Carbonell and a simple baseline. We demonstrate that our approach matches or improves upon the original approach within five different oracle scenarios, each on two datasets. Finally, our algorithm provides a general, well-defined mathematical foundation to build upon.