Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox provides functions and apps to describe, analyze, and model data. You can use descriptive statistics and plots for exploratory data analysis, fit probability distributions to data, generate random numbers for Monte Carlo simulations, and perform hypothesis tests. Regression and classification algorithms let you draw inferences from data and build predictive models. For multidimensional data analysis, Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox provides feature selection, stepwise regression, principal component analysis (PCA), regularization, and other dimensionality reduction methods that let you identify variables or features that impact your model. The toolbox provides supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms, including support vector machines (SVMs), boosted and bagged decision trees, k-nearest neighbor, k-means, k-medoids, hierarchical clustering, Gaussian mixture models, and hidden Markov models.

A plethora of networks is being collected in a growing number of fields, including disease transmission, international relations, social interactions, and others. As data streams continue to grow, the complexity associated with these highly multidimensional connectivity data presents novel challenges. In this paper, we focus on the time-varying interconnections among a set of actors in multiple contexts, called layers. Current literature lacks flexible statistical models for dynamic multilayer networks, which can enhance quality in inference and prediction by efficiently borrowing information within each network, across time, and between layers. Motivated by this gap, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric model leveraging latent space representations. Our formulation characterizes the edge probabilities as a function of shared and layer-specific actors positions in a latent space, with these positions changing in time via Gaussian processes. This representation facilitates dimensionality reduction and incorporates different sources of information in the observed data. In addition, we obtain tractable procedures for posterior computation, inference, and prediction. We provide theoretical results on the flexibility of our model. Our methods are tested on simulations and infection studies monitoring dynamic face-to-face contacts among individuals in multiple days, where we perform better than current methods in inference and prediction.

Machine Learning is a vast area of Computer Science that is concerned with designing algorithms which form good models of the world around us (the data coming from the world around us). Within Machine Learning many tasks are - or can be reformulated as - classification tasks. In classification tasks we are trying to produce a model which can give the correlation between the input data and the class each input belongs to. This model is formed with the feature-values of the input-data. For example, the dataset contains datapoints belonging to the classes Apples, Pears and Oranges and based on the features of the datapoints (weight, color, size etc) we are trying to predict the class. We need some amount of training data to train the Classifier, i.e. form a correct model of the data.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology that generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate, properly weighted, samples from the SMC proposal distribution, while still resulting in a correct SMC algorithm. This way we can exactly approximate the locally optimal proposal, and extend the class of models for which we can perform efficient inference using SMC. We show improved accuracy over other state-of-the-art methods on several spatio-temporal state space models.

Predictive State Representations (PSRs) are powerful techniques for modelling dynamical systems, which represent a state as a vector of predictions about future observable events (tests). In PSRs, one of the fundamental problems is the learning of the PSR model of the underlying system. Recently, spectral methods have been successfully used to address this issue by treating the learning problem as the task of computing an singular value decomposition (SVD) over a submatrix of a special type of matrix called the Hankel matrix. Under the assumptions that the rows and columns of the submatrix of the Hankel Matrix are sufficient~(which usually means a very large number of rows and columns, and almost fails in practice) and the entries of the matrix can be estimated accurately, it has been proven that the spectral approach for learning PSRs is statistically consistent and the learned parameters can converge to the true parameters. However, in practice, due to the limit of the computation ability, only a finite set of rows or columns can be chosen to be used for the spectral learning. While different sets of columns usually lead to variant accuracy of the learned model, in this paper, we propose an approach for selecting the set of columns, namely basis selection, by adopting a concept of model entropy to measure the accuracy of the learned model. Experimental results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Belief Propagation (BP) is a widely used approximation for exact probabilistic inference in graphical models, such as Markov Random Fields (MRFs). In graphs with cycles, however, no exact convergence guarantees for BP are known, in general. For the case when all edges in the MRF carry the same symmetric, doubly stochastic potential, recent works have proposed to approximate BP by linearizing the update equations around default values, which was shown to work well for the problem of node classification. The present paper generalizes all prior work and derives an approach that approximates loopy BP on any pairwise MRF with the problem of solving a linear equation system. This approach combines exact convergence guarantees and a fast matrix implementation with the ability to model heterogenous networks. Experiments on synthetic graphs with planted edge potentials show that the linearization has comparable labeling accuracy as BP for graphs with weak potentials, while speeding-up inference by orders of magnitude.

Many machine learning applications use latent variable models to explain structure in data, whereby visible variables (= coordinates of the given datapoint) are explained as a probabilistic function of some hidden variables. Finding parameters with the maximum likelihood is NP-hard even in very simple settings. In recent years, provably efficient algorithms were nevertheless developed for models with linear structures: topic models, mixture models, hidden markov models, etc. These algorithms use matrix or tensor decomposition, and make some reasonable assumptions about the parameters of the underlying model. But matrix or tensor decomposition seems of little use when the latent variable model has nonlinearities. The current paper shows how to make progress: tensor decomposition is applied for learning the single-layer {\em noisy or} network, which is a textbook example of a Bayes net, and used for example in the classic QMR-DT software for diagnosing which disease(s) a patient may have by observing the symptoms he/she exhibits. The technical novelty here, which should be useful in other settings in future, is analysis of tensor decomposition in presence of systematic error (i.e., where the noise/error is correlated with the signal, and doesn't decrease as number of samples goes to infinity). This requires rethinking all steps of tensor decomposition methods from the ground up. For simplicity our analysis is stated assuming that the network parameters were chosen from a probability distribution but the method seems more generally applicable.

The Poisson distribution has been widely studied and used for modeling univariate count-valued data. Multivariate generalizations of the Poisson distribution that permit dependencies, however, have been far less popular. Yet, real-world high-dimensional count-valued data found in word counts, genomics, and crime statistics, for example, exhibit rich dependencies, and motivate the need for multivariate distributions that can appropriately model this data. We review multivariate distributions derived from the univariate Poisson, categorizing these models into three main classes: 1) where the marginal distributions are Poisson, 2) where the joint distribution is a mixture of independent multivariate Poisson distributions, and 3) where the node-conditional distributions are derived from the Poisson. We discuss the development of multiple instances of these classes and compare the models in terms of interpretability and theory. Then, we empirically compare multiple models from each class on three real-world datasets that have varying data characteristics from different domains, namely traffic accident data, biological next generation sequencing data, and text data. These empirical experiments develop intuition about the comparative advantages and disadvantages of each class of multivariate distribution that was derived from the Poisson. Finally, we suggest new research directions as explored in the subsequent discussion section.

Modeling continuous-time physiological processes that manifest a patient's evolving clinical states is a key step in approaching many problems in healthcare. In this paper, we develop the Hidden Absorbing Semi-Markov Model (HASMM): a versatile probabilistic model that is capable of capturing the modern electronic health record (EHR) data. Unlike exist- ing models, an HASMM accommodates irregularly sampled, temporally correlated, and informatively censored physiological data, and can describe non-stationary clinical state transitions. Learning an HASMM from the EHR data is achieved via a novel forward- filtering backward-sampling Monte-Carlo EM algorithm that exploits the knowledge of the end-point clinical outcomes (informative censoring) in the EHR data, and implements the E-step by sequentially sampling the patients' clinical states in the reverse-time direction while conditioning on the future states. Real-time inferences are drawn via a forward- filtering algorithm that operates on a virtually constructed discrete-time embedded Markov chain that mirrors the patient's continuous-time state trajectory. We demonstrate the di- agnostic and prognostic utility of the HASMM in a critical care prognosis setting using a real-world dataset for patients admitted to the Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center.

We give a novel formal theoretical framework for unsupervised learning with two distinctive characteristics. First, it does not assume any generative model and based on a worst-case performance metric. Second, it is comparative, namely performance is measured with respect to a given hypothesis class. This allows to avoid known computational hardness results and improper algorithms based on convex relaxations. We show how several families of unsupervised learning models, which were previously only analyzed under probabilistic assumptions and are otherwise provably intractable, can be efficiently learned in our framework by convex optimization.