You happen to know that Tim and Harry have recently had a terrible row that ended their friendship. Now someone tells you that she just saw Tim and Harry jogging together. The best explanation for this that you can think of is that they made up. You conclude that they are friends again. One morning you enter the kitchen to find a plate and cup on the table, with breadcrumbs and a pat of butter on it, and surrounded by a jar of jam, a pack of sugar, and an empty carton of milk. You conclude that one of your house-mates got up at night to make him- or herself a midnight snack and was too tired to clear the table. This, you think, best explains the scene you are facing. To be sure, it might be that someone burgled the house and took the time to have a bite while on the job, or a house-mate might have arranged the things on the table without having a midnight snack but just to make you believe that someone had a midnight snack. But these hypotheses strike you as providing much more contrived explanations of the data than the one you infer to. Walking along the beach, you see what looks like a picture of Winston Churchill in the sand. It could be that, as in the opening pages of Hilary Putnam's (1981), what you see is actually the trace of an ant crawling on the beach. The much simpler, and therefore (you think) much better, explanation is that someone intentionally drew a picture of Churchill in the sand. That, in any case, is what you come away believing. In these examples, the conclusions do not follow logically from the premises.

The course will give the student the basic ideas and intuition behind modern machine learning methods as well as a bit more formal understanding of how, why, and when they work. The underlying theme in the course is statistical inference as it provides the foundation for most of the methods covered.

In the near future, the package that you ordered online may be deposited at your doorstep by a drone: Last December, online retailer Amazon announced plans to explore drone-based delivery, suggesting that fleets of flying robots might serve as autonomous messengers that shuttle packages to customers within 30 minutes of an order. To ensure safe, timely, and accurate delivery, drones would need to deal with a degree of uncertainty in responding to factors such as high winds, sensor measurement errors, or drops in fuel. But such "what-if" planning typically requires massive computation, which can be difficult to perform on the fly. Now MIT researchers have come up with a two-pronged approach that significantly reduces the computation associated with lengthy delivery missions. The team first developed an algorithm that enables a drone to monitor aspects of its "health" in real time.

The class will cover models at the level of syntactic, semantic and discourse processing. The emphasis will be on corpus-based methods and algorithms, such as Hidden Markov Models and probabilistic context free grammars. We will discuss the use of these methods and models in a variety of applications including syntactic parsing, information extraction, statistical machine translation, and summarization. File decompression software, such as Winzip or StuffIt, is required to open the .gz Postscript viewer software, such as Ghostscript/Ghostview, can be used to view the .ps

Using humanoid robots to study human behavior.

Influence diagrams provide a compact graphical representation of decision problems. Several algorithms for the quick computation of their associated expected utilities are available in the literature. However, often they rely on a full quantification of both probabilistic uncertainties and utility values. For problems where all random variables and decision spaces are finite and discrete, here we develop a symbolic way to calculate the expected utilities of influence diagrams that does not require a full numerical representation. Within this approach expected utilities correspond to families of polynomials. After characterizing their polynomial structure, we develop an efficient symbolic algorithm for the propagation of expected utilities through the diagram and provide an implementation of this algorithm using a computer algebra system. We then characterize many of the standard manipulations of influence diagrams as transformations of polynomials. We also generalize the decision analytic framework of these diagrams by defining asymmetries as operations over the expected utility polynomials.

Humans are not only adept in recognizing what class an input instance belongs to (i.e., classification task), but perhaps more remarkably, they can imagine (i.e., generate) plausible instances of a desired class with ease, when prompted. Inspired by this, we propose a framework which allows transforming Cascade-Correlation Neural Networks (CCNNs) into probabilistic generative models, thereby enabling CCNNs to generate samples from a category of interest. CCNNs are a well-known class of deterministic, discriminative NNs, which autonomously construct their topology, and have been successful in giving accounts for a variety of psychological phenomena. Our proposed framework is based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm, which capitalizes on the gradient information of the target distribution to direct its explorations towards regions of high probability, thereby achieving good mixing properties. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed framework.

Sum-product networks have recently emerged as an attractive representation due to their dual view as a special type of deep neural network with clear semantics and a special type of probabilistic graphical model for which inference is always tractable. Those properties follow from some conditions (i.e., completeness and decomposability) that must be respected by the structure of the network. As a result, it is not easy to specify a valid sum-product network by hand and therefore structure learning techniques are typically used in practice. This paper describes the first online structure learning technique for continuous SPNs with Gaussian leaves. We also introduce an accompanying new parameter learning technique.

A pdf version of this document created using latex can be downloaded by clicking here. Polymorphic malware detection is challenging due to the continual mutations miscreants introduce to successive instances of a particular virus. Such changes are akin to mutations in biological sequences. Recently, high-throughput methods for gene sequence classification have been developed by the bioinformatics and computational biology communities. In this paper, we argue that these methods can be usefully applied to malware detection. Unfortunately, gene classification tools are usually optimized for and restricted to an alphabet of four letters (nucleic acids). Consequently, we have selected the Strand gene sequence classifier, which offers a robust classification strategy that can easily accommodate unstructured data with any alphabet including source code or compiled machine code. To demonstrate Stand's suitability for classifying malware, we execute it on approximately 500GB of malware data provided by the Kaggle Microsoft Malware Classification Challenge (BIG 2015) used for predicting 9 classes of polymorphic malware.