This paper considers a number of related inverse filtering problems for hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, given a sequence of state posteriors and the system dynamics; i) estimate the corresponding sequence of observations, ii) estimate the observation likelihoods, and iii) jointly estimate the observation likelihoods and the observation sequence. We show how to avoid a computationally expensive mixed integer linear program (MILP) by exploiting the algebraic structure of the HMM filter using simple linear algebra operations, and provide conditions for when the quantities can be uniquely reconstructed. We also propose a solution to the more general case where the posteriors are noisily observed. Finally, the proposed inverse filtering algorithms are evaluated on real-world polysomnographic data used for automatic sleep segmentation.

In this paper we consider the problem of computing an null -optimal policy of a discounted Markov Decision Process (DMDP) provided we can only access its transition function through a generative sampling model that given any state-action pair samples from the transition function in O (1) time.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Bayesian network on a given graph.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: we formulate the structure learning problem as a purely continuous optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved by standard numerical algorithms, which also makes implementation effortless. The proposed method outperforms existing ones, without imposing any structural assumptions on the graph such as bounded treewidth or in-degree.

Many state-of-the-art algorithms for solving Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) rely on turning the problem into a "fully observable" problem--a belief MDP--and exploiting the piece-wise linearity and convexity (PWLC) of the optimal value function in this new state space (the belief simplex). This approach has been extended to solving ρ-POMDPs--i.e., for information-oriented criteria--when the reward ρ is convex in . General ρ-POMDPs can also be turned into "fully observable" problems, but with no means to exploit the PWLC property. In this paper, we focus on POMDPs and ρ-POMDPs with λ ρ -Lipschitz reward function, and demonstrate that, for finite horizons, the optimal value function is Lipschitz-continuous. Then, value function approximators are proposed for both upper-and lower-bounding the optimal value function, which are shown to provide uniformly improvable bounds. This allows proposing two algorithms derived from HSVI which are empirically evaluated on various benchmark problems.

At their core, many unsupervised learning models provide a compact representation of homogeneous density mixtures, but their similarities and differences are not always clearly understood. In this work, we formally establish the relationships among latent tree graphical models (including special cases such as hidden Markov models and tensorial mixture models), hierarchical tensor formats and sum-product networks. Based on this connection, we then give a unified treatment of exponential separation in \emph{exact} representation size between deep mixture architectures and shallow ones. In contrast, for \emph{approximate} representation, we show that the conditional gradient algorithm can approximate any homogeneous mixture within $\epsilon$ accuracy by combining $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ ``shallow'' architectures, where the hidden constant may decrease (exponentially) with respect to the depth. Our experiments on both synthetic and real datasets confirm the benefits of depth in density estimation.

In this paper we consider the problem of computing an $\epsilon$-optimal policy of a discounted Markov Decision Process (DMDP) provided we can only access its transition function through a generative sampling model that given any state-action pair samples from the transition function in $O(1)$ time.

Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) constitute a general and powerful framework for modeling continuous-time stochastic processes on networks. This makes them particularly attractive for learning the directed structures among interacting entities. However, if the available data is incomplete, one needs to simulate the prohibitively complex CTBN dynamics. Existing approximation techniques, such as sampling and low-order variational methods, either scale unfavorably in system size, or are unsatisfactory in terms of accuracy. Inspired by recent advances in statistical physics, we present a new approximation scheme based on cluster-variational methods that significantly improves upon existing variational approximations. We can analytically marginalize the parameters of the approximate CTBN, as these are of secondary importance for structure learning. This recovers a scalable scheme for direct structure learning from incomplete and noisy time-series data. Our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of scalability.