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 Learning Graphical Models


Scaling Agentic Reinforcement Learning for Tool-Integrated Reasoning in VLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While recent vision-language models (VLMs) demonstrate strong image understanding, their ability to "think with images", i.e., to reason through multi-step visual interactions, remains limited. We introduce VISTA-Gym, a scalable training environment for incentivizing tool-integrated visual reasoning capabilities in VLMs. VISTA-Gym unifies diverse real-world multimodal reasoning tasks (7 tasks from 13 datasets in total) with a standardized interface for visual tools (e.g., grounding, parsing), executable interaction loops, verifiable feedback signals, and efficient trajectory logging, enabling visual agentic reinforcement learning at scale. While recent VLMs exhibit strong text-only reasoning, both proprietary and open-source models still struggle with tool selection, invocation, and coordination. With VISTA-Gym, we train VISTA-R1 to interleave tool-use with agentic reasoning via multi-turn trajectory sampling and end-to-end reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments across 11 public reasoning-intensive VQA benchmarks show that VISTA-R1-8B outperforms state-of-the-art baselines with similar sizes by 9.51%-18.72%, demonstrating VISTA-Gym as an effective training ground to unlock the tool-integrated reasoning capabilities for VLMs.


Hidden markov model to predict tourists visited place

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nowadays, social networks are becoming a popular way of analyzing tourist behavior, thanks to the digital traces left by travelers during their stays on these networks. The massive amount of data generated; by the propensity of tourists to share comments and photos during their trip; makes it possible to model their journeys and analyze their behavior. Predicting the next movement of tourists plays a key role in tourism marketing to understand demand and improve decision support. In this paper, we propose a method to understand and to learn tourists' movements based on social network data analysis to predict future movements. The method relies on a machine learning grammatical inference algorithm. A major contribution in this paper is to adapt the grammatical inference algorithm to the context of big data. Our method produces a hidden Markov model representing the movements of a group of tourists. The hidden Markov model is flexible and editable with new data. The capital city of France, Paris is selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.


VIL2C: Value-of-Information Aware Low-Latency Communication for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inter-agent communication serves as an effective mechanism for enhancing performance in collaborative multi-agent reinforcement learning(MARL) systems. However, the inherent communication latency in practical systems induces both action decision delays and outdated information sharing, impeding MARL performance gains, particularly in time-critical applications like autonomous driving. In this work, we propose a V alue-of-Information aware Low-latency Communication(VIL2C) scheme that proactively adjusts the latency distribution to mitigate its effects in MARL systems. Specifically, we define a V alue of Information (VOI) metric to quantify the importance of delayed message transmission based on each delayed message's importance. Moreover, we propose a progressive message reception mechanism to adap-tively adjust the reception duration based on received messages. We derive the optimized V oI aware resource allocation and theoretically prove the performance advantage of the proposed VIL2C scheme. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VIL2C outperforms existing approaches under various communication conditions. These gains are attributed to the low-latency transmission of high-V oI messages via resource allocation and the elimination of unnecessary waiting periods via adaptive reception duration.


DecNefLab: A Modular and Interpretable Simulation Framework for Decoded Neurofeedback

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decoded Neurofeedback (DecNef) is a flourishing non-invasive approach to brain modulation with wide-ranging applications in neuromedicine and cognitive neuroscience. However, progress in DecNef research remains constrained by subject-dependent learning variability, reliance on indirect measures to quantify progress, and the high cost and time demands of experimentation. We present DecNefLab, a modular and interpretable simulation framework that formalizes DecNef as a machine learning problem. Beyond providing a virtual laboratory, DecNefLab enables researchers to model, analyze and understand neurofeedback dynamics. Using latent variable generative models as simulated participants, DecNefLab allows direct observation of internal cognitive states and systematic evaluation of how different protocol designs and subject characteristics influence learning. We demonstrate how this approach can (i) reproduce empirical phenomena of DecNef learning, (ii) identify conditions under which DecNef feedback fails to induce learning, and (iii) guide the design of more robust and reliable DecNef protocols in silico before human implementation. In summary, DecNefLab bridges computational modeling and cognitive neuroscience, offering a principled foundation for methodological innovation, robust protocol design, and ultimately, a deeper understanding of DecNef-based brain modulation.


Aspiration-based Perturbed Learning Automata in Games with Noisy Utility Measurements. Part A: Stochastic Stability in Non-zero-Sum Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement-based learning has attracted considerable attention both in modeling human behavior as well as in engineering, for designing measurement- or payoff-based optimization schemes. Such learning schemes exhibit several advantages, especially in relation to filtering out noisy observations. However, they may exhibit several limitations when applied in a distributed setup. In multi-player weakly-acyclic games, and when each player applies an independent copy of the learning dynamics, convergence to (usually desirable) pure Nash equilibria cannot be guaranteed. Prior work has only focused on a small class of games, namely potential and coordination games. To address this main limitation, this paper introduces a novel payoff-based learning scheme for distributed optimization, namely aspiration-based perturbed learning automata (APLA). In this class of dynamics, and contrary to standard reinforcement-based learning schemes, each player's probability distribution for selecting actions is reinforced both by repeated selection and an aspiration factor that captures the player's satisfaction level. We provide a stochastic stability analysis of APLA in multi-player positive-utility games under the presence of noisy observations. This is the first part of the paper that characterizes stochastic stability in generic non-zero-sum games by establishing equivalence of the induced infinite-dimensional Markov chain with a finite dimensional one. In the second part, stochastic stability is further specialized to weakly acyclic games.


Filtering with Self-Attention and Storing with MLP: One-Layer Transformers Can Provably Acquire and Extract Knowledge

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern large language models (LLMs) demonstrate exceptional performance on knowledge-intensive tasks, yet the theoretical mechanisms underlying knowledge acquisition (storage and memorization) during pre-training and extraction (retrieval and recall) during inference after fine-tuning remain poorly understood. Although prior theoretical studies have explored these processes through analyses of training dynamics, they overlook critical components essential for a comprehensive theory: (1) the multi-layer perceptron (MLP), empirically identified as the primary module for knowledge storage; (2) out-of-distribution (OOD) adaptivity, which enables LLMs to generalize to unseen scenarios post-pre-training; and (3) next-token prediction, the standard autoregressive objective that encodes knowledge as conditional probabilities. In this work, we introduce, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical framework that addresses these limitations by examining the training dynamics of one-layer transformers. Under regularity assumptions, we establish that: (i) transformers attain near-optimal training loss during pre-training, demonstrating effective knowledge acquisition; (ii) given a sufficiently large fine-tuning dataset and appropriate data multiplicity conditions, transformers achieve low generalization error on factual knowledge acquired during pre-training but not revisited in fine-tuning, indicating robust knowledge extraction; and (iii) violation of these conditions leads to elevated generalization error, manifesting as hallucinations. Our analysis encompasses both full fine-tuning and low-rank fine-tuning, yielding insights into the efficacy of practical low-rank adaptation methods. We validate our theoretical findings through experiments on synthetic datasets and the real-world PopQA benchmark, employing GPT-2 and Llama-3.2-1B models.


Adaptive Out-of-Control Point Pattern Detection in Sequential Random Finite Set Observations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- In this work we introduce a novel adaptive anomaly detection framework specifically designed for monitoring sequential random finite set (RFS) observations. Our approach effectively distinguishes between In-Control data (normal) and Out-Of-Control data (anomalies) by detecting deviations from the expected statistical behavior of the process. The primary contributions of this study include the development of an innovative RFS-based framework that not only learns the normal behavior of the data-generating process online but also dynamically adapts to behavioral shifts to accurately identify abnormal point patterns. T o achieve this, we introduce a new class of RFS-based posterior distributions, named Power Discounting Posteriors (PD), which facilitate adaptation to systematic changes in data while enabling anomaly detection of point pattern data through a novel predictive posterior density function. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by extensive qualitative and quantitative simulation experiments.


A Robust State Filter Against Unmodeled Process And Measurement Noise

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces a novel Kalman filter framework designed to achieve robust state estimation under both process and measurement noise. Inspired by the Weighted Observation Likelihood Filter (WoLF), which provides robustness against measurement outliers, we applied generalized Bayesian approach to build a framework considering both process and measurement noise outliers.


Matching correlated VAR time series

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of matching correlated VAR time series databases, where a multivariate time series is observed along with a perturbed and permuted version, and the goal is to recover the unknown matching between them. To model this, we introduce a probabilistic framework in which two time series $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are jointly generated, such that $x^\#_t=x_{π^*(t)}+σ\tilde{x}_{π^*(t)}$, where $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(\tilde{x}_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are independent and identically distributed vector autoregressive (VAR) time series of order $1$ with Gaussian increments, for a hidden $π^*$. The objective is to recover $π^*$, from the observation of $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$. This generalizes the classical problem of matching independent point clouds to the time series setting. We derive the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), leading to a quadratic optimization over permutations, and theoretically analyze an estimator based on linear assignment. For the latter approach, we establish recovery guarantees, identifying thresholds for $σ$ that allow for perfect or partial recovery. Additionally, we propose solving the MLE by considering convex relaxations of the set of permutation matrices (e.g., over the Birkhoff polytope). This allows for efficient estimation of $π^*$ and the VAR parameters via alternating minimization. Empirically, we find that linear assignment often matches or outperforms MLE relaxation based approaches.


Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Quantum Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need for reliable and trustworthy predictions. Recent work has introduced quantum conformal prediction, a framework that produces prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true outcome with user-specified probability. In this work, we formalise how the time-varying noise inherent in quantum processors can undermine conformal guarantees, even when calibration and test data are exchangeable. To address this challenge, we draw on Adaptive Conformal Inference, a method which maintains validity over time via repeated recalibration. We introduce Adaptive Quantum Conformal Prediction (AQCP), an algorithm which preserves asymptotic average coverage guarantees under arbitrary hardware noise conditions. Empirical studies on an IBM quantum processor demonstrate that AQCP achieves target coverage levels and exhibits greater stability than quantum conformal prediction.