This paper introduces a novel Kalman filter framework designed to achieve robust state estimation under both process and measurement noise. Inspired by the Weighted Observation Likelihood Filter (WoLF), which provides robustness against measurement outliers, we applied generalized Bayesian approach to build a framework considering both process and measurement noise outliers.

We study the problem of matching correlated VAR time series databases, where a multivariate time series is observed along with a perturbed and permuted version, and the goal is to recover the unknown matching between them. To model this, we introduce a probabilistic framework in which two time series $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are jointly generated, such that $x^\#_t=x_{π^*(t)}+σ\tilde{x}_{π^*(t)}$, where $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(\tilde{x}_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are independent and identically distributed vector autoregressive (VAR) time series of order $1$ with Gaussian increments, for a hidden $π^*$. The objective is to recover $π^*$, from the observation of $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$. This generalizes the classical problem of matching independent point clouds to the time series setting. We derive the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), leading to a quadratic optimization over permutations, and theoretically analyze an estimator based on linear assignment. For the latter approach, we establish recovery guarantees, identifying thresholds for $σ$ that allow for perfect or partial recovery. Additionally, we propose solving the MLE by considering convex relaxations of the set of permutation matrices (e.g., over the Birkhoff polytope). This allows for efficient estimation of $π^*$ and the VAR parameters via alternating minimization. Empirically, we find that linear assignment often matches or outperforms MLE relaxation based approaches.

Quantum machine learning seeks to leverage quantum computers to improve upon classical machine learning algorithms. Currently, robust uncertainty quantification methods remain underdeveloped in the quantum domain, despite the critical need for reliable and trustworthy predictions. Recent work has introduced quantum conformal prediction, a framework that produces prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true outcome with user-specified probability. In this work, we formalise how the time-varying noise inherent in quantum processors can undermine conformal guarantees, even when calibration and test data are exchangeable. To address this challenge, we draw on Adaptive Conformal Inference, a method which maintains validity over time via repeated recalibration. We introduce Adaptive Quantum Conformal Prediction (AQCP), an algorithm which preserves asymptotic average coverage guarantees under arbitrary hardware noise conditions. Empirical studies on an IBM quantum processor demonstrate that AQCP achieves target coverage levels and exhibits greater stability than quantum conformal prediction.

This paper presents a real time, data driven decision support framework for epidemic control. We combine a compartmental epidemic model with sequential Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning (RL) controllers that adaptively choose intervention levels to balance disease burden, such as intensive care unit (ICU) load, against socio economic costs. We construct a context specific cost function using empirical experiments and expert feedback. We study two RL policies: an ICU threshold rule computed via Monte Carlo grid search, and a policy based on a posterior averaged Q learning agent. We validate the framework by fitting the epidemic model to publicly available ICU occupancy data from the COVID 19 pandemic in England and then generating counterfactual roll out scenarios under each RL controller, which allows us to compare the RL policies to the historical government strategy. Over a 300 day period and for a range of cost parameters, both controllers substantially reduce ICU burden relative to the observed interventions, illustrating how Bayesian sequential learning combined with RL can support the design of epidemic control policies.

Data assimilation is a fundamental task in updating forecasting models upon observing new data, with applications ranging from weather prediction to online reinforcement learning. Deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) have shown excellent performance in these areas, but assimilating data into such models is challenging due to their intractable likelihood functions. This limitation restricts the use of standard Bayesian data assimilation methodologies for DGFMs. To overcome this, we introduce prequential posteriors, based upon a predictive-sequential (prequential) loss function; an approach naturally suited for temporally dependent data which is the focus of forecasting tasks. Since the true data-generating process often lies outside the assumed model class, we adopt an alternative notion of consistency and prove that, under mild conditions, both the prequential loss minimizer and the prequential posterior concentrate around parameters with optimal predictive performance. For scalable inference, we employ easily parallelizable wastefree sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers with preconditioned gradient-based kernels, enabling efficient exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces such as those in DGFMs. We validate our method on both a synthetic multi-dimensional time series and a real-world meteorological dataset; highlighting its practical utility for data assimilation for complex dynamical systems.

The PC algorithm is a widely used method in causal inference for learning the structure of Bayesian networks. Despite its popularity, the PC algorithm suffers from significant time complexity, particularly as the size of the dataset increases, which limits its applicability in large-scale real-world problems. In this study, we propose a novel approach that utilises the Tsetlin Machine (TM) to construct Bayesian structures more efficiently. Our method leverages the most significant literals extracted from the TM and performs conditional independence (CI) tests on these selected literals instead of the full set of variables, resulting in a considerable reduction in computational time. We implemented our approach and compared it with various state-of-the-art methods. Our evaluation includes categorical datasets from the bnlearn repository, such as Munin1, Hepar2. The findings indicate that the proposed TM-based method not only reduces computational complexity but also maintains competitive accuracy in causal discovery, making it a viable alternative to traditional PC algorithm implementations by offering improved efficiency without compromising performance.

In multi-agent systems, explicit cognition of teammates' decision logic serves as a critical factor in facilitating coordination. Communication (i.e., ``\textit{Tell}'') can assist in the cognitive development process by information dissemination, yet it is inevitably subject to real-world constraints such as noise, latency, and attacks. Therefore, building the understanding of teammates' decisions without communication remains challenging. To address this, we propose a novel non-communication MARL framework that realizes the construction of cognition through local observation-based modeling (i.e., \textit{``Think''}). Our framework enables agents to model teammates' \textbf{active inference} process. At first, the proposed method produces three teammate portraits: perception-belief-action. Specifically, we model the teammate's decision process as follows: 1) Perception: observing environments; 2) Belief: forming beliefs; 3) Action: making decisions. Then, we selectively integrate the belief portrait into the decision process based on the accuracy and relevance of the perception portrait. This enables the selection of cooperative teammates and facilitates effective collaboration. Extensive experiments on the SMAC, SMACv2, MPE, and GRF benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

The transition to autonomous material systems necessitates adaptive control methodologies to maximize structural longevity. This study frames the self-healing process as a Reinforcement Learning (RL) problem within a Markov Decision Process (MDP), enabling agents to autonomously derive optimal policies that efficiently balance structural integrity maintenance against finite resource consumption. A comparative evaluation of discrete-action (Q-learning, DQN) and continuous-action (TD3) agents in a stochastic simulation environment revealed that RL controllers significantly outperform heuristic baselines, achieving near-complete material recovery. Crucially, the TD3 agent utilizing continuous dosage control demonstrated superior convergence speed and stability, underscoring the necessity of fine-grained, proportional actuation in dynamic self-healing applications.

For online ad-recommendation systems, processing complete user-ad-engagement histories is both computationally intensive and noise-prone. We introduce Dynamix, a scalable, personalized sequence exploration framework that optimizes event history processing using maximum relevance principles and self-supervised learning through Event Based Features (EBFs). Dynamix categorizes users-engagements at session and surface-levels by leveraging correlations between dwell-times and ad-conversion events. This enables targeted, event-level feature removal and selective feature boosting for certain user-segments, thereby yielding training and inference efficiency wins without sacrificing engaging ad-prediction accuracy. While, dynamic resource removal increases training and inference throughput by 1.15% and 1.8%, respectively, dynamic feature boosting provides 0.033 NE gains while boosting inference QPS by 4.2% over baseline models. These results demonstrate that Dynamix achieves significant cost efficiency and performance improvements in online user-sequence based recommendation models. Self-supervised user-segmentation and resource exploration can further boost complex feature selection strategies while optimizing for workflow and compute resources.

This paper addresses a critical gap in Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MOMARL) by introducing the first dedicated inner-loop actor-critic framework for continuous state and action spaces: Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Actor-Critic (MOMA-AC). Building on single-objective, single-agent algorithms, we instantiate this framework with Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), yielding MOMA-TD3 and MOMA-DDPG. The framework combines a multi-headed actor network, a centralised critic, and an objective preference-conditioning architecture, enabling a single neural network to encode the Pareto front of optimal trade-off policies for all agents across conflicting objectives in a continuous MOMARL setting. We also outline a natural test suite for continuous MOMARL by combining a pre-existing multi-agent single-objective physics simulator with its multi-objective single-agent counterpart. Evaluating cooperative locomotion tasks in this suite, we show that our framework achieves statistically significant improvements in expected utility and hypervolume relative to outer-loop and independent training baselines, while demonstrating stable scalability as the number of agents increases. These results establish our framework as a foundational step towards robust, scalable multi-objective policy learning in continuous multi-agent domains.