A self-learning optimal control algorithm for sequential manufacturing processes with time-discrete control actions is proposed and evaluated with simulated deep drawing processes. The necessary control model is built during consecutive process executions under optimal control via Reinforcement Learning, using the measured product quality as reward after each process execution. Prior model formation, which is required by state-of-the-art algorithms like Model Predictive Control and Approximate Dynamic Programming, is therefore obsolete. This avoids the difficulties in system identification and accurate modelling, which arise with processes subject to non-linear dynamics and stochastic influences. Also runtime complexity problems of these approaches are avoided, which arise when more complex models and larger control prediction horizons are employed. Instead of using pre-created process- and observation-models, Reinforcement Learning algorithms build functions of expected future reward during processing, which are then used for optimal process control decisions. The learning of such expectation functions is realized online by interacting with the process. The proposed algorithm also takes stochastic variations of the process conditions into consideration and is able to cope with partial observability. A method for the adaptive optimal control of partially observable fixed-horizon manufacturing processes, based on Q-learning is developed and studied. The resulting algorithm is instantiated and then evaluated by application to a time-stochastic optimal control problem in metal sheet deep drawing, where the experiments use FEM-simulated processes. The Reinforcement Learning based control shows superior results over the model-based Model Predictive Control and Approximate Dynamic Programming approaches.

Extending spatio-temporal scale limitations of models for complex atomistic systems considered in biochemistry and materials science necessitates the development of enhanced sampling methods. The potential acceleration in exploring the configurational space by enhanced sampling methods depends on the choice of collective variables (CVs). In this work, we formulate the discovery of CVs as a Bayesian inference problem and consider the CVs as hidden generators of the full-atomistic trajectory. The ability to generate samples of the fine-scale atomistic configurations using limited training data allows us to compute estimates of observables as well as our probabilistic confidence on them. The methodology is based on emerging methodological advances in machine learning and variational inference. The discovered CVs are related to physicochemical properties which are essential for understanding mechanisms especially in unexplored complex systems. We provide a quantitative assessment of the CVs in terms of their predictive ability for alanine dipeptide (ALA-2) and ALA-15 peptide.

Gene regulatory networks play a crucial role in controlling an organism's biological processes, which is why there is significant interest in developing computational methods that are able to extract their structure from high-throughput genetic data. A typical approach consists of a series of conditional independence tests on the covariance structure meant to progressively reduce the space of possible causal models. We propose a novel efficient Bayesian method for discovering the local causal relationships among triplets of (normally distributed) variables. In our approach, we score the patterns in the covariance matrix in one go and we incorporate the available background knowledge in the form of priors over causal structures. Our method is flexible in the sense that it allows for different types of causal structures and assumptions. We apply the approach to the task of inferring gene regulatory networks by learning regulatory relationships between gene expression levels. We show that our algorithm produces stable and conservative posterior probability estimates over local causal structures that can be used to derive an honest ranking of the most meaningful regulatory relationships. We demonstrate the stability and efficacy of our method both on simulated data and on real-world data from an experiment on yeast.

Rotation forest is a tree based ensemble that performs transforms on subsets of attributes prior to constructing each tree. We present an empirical comparison of classifiers for problems with only real valued features. We evaluate classifiers from three families of algorithms: support vector machines; tree-based ensembles; and neural networks. We compare classifiers on unseen data based on the quality of the decision rule (using classification error) the ability to rank cases (area under the receiver operator curve) and the probability estimates (using negative log likelihood). We conclude that, in answer to the question posed in the title, yes, rotation forest, is significantly more accurate on average than competing techniques when compared on three distinct sets of datasets. The same pattern of results are observed when tuning classifiers on the train data using a grid search. We investigate why rotation forest does so well by testing whether the characteristics of the data can be used to differentiate classifier performance. We assess the impact of the design features of rotation forest through an ablative study that transforms random forest into rotation forest. We identify the major limitation of rotation forest as its scalability, particularly in number of attributes. To overcome this problem we develop a model to predict the train time of the algorithm and hence propose a contract version of rotation forest where a run time cap {\em a priori}. We demonstrate that on large problems rotation forest can be made an order of magnitude faster without significant loss of accuracy and that there is no real benefit (on average) from tuning the ensemble. We conclude that without any domain knowledge to indicate an algorithm preference, rotation forest should be the default algorithm of choice for problems with continuous attributes.

Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables. When fitting an ABN model, the choice of the prior of the parameters is of crucial importance. If an inadequate prior - like a too weakly informative one - is used, data separation and data sparsity lead to issues in the model selection process. In this work a simulation study between two weakly and a strongly informative priors is presented. As weakly informative prior we use a zero mean Gaussian prior with a large variance, currently implemented in the R-package abn. The second prior belongs to the Student's t-distribution, specifically designed for logistic regressions and, finally, the strongly informative prior is again Gaussian with mean equal to true parameter value and a small variance. We compare the impact of these priors on the accuracy of the learned additive Bayesian network in function of different parameters. We create a simulation study to illustrate Lindley's paradox based on the prior choice. We then conclude by highlighting the good performance of the informative Student's t-prior and the limited impact of the Lindley's paradox. Finally, suggestions for further developments are provided.

Machine learning qualifies computers to assimilate with data, without being solely programmed [1, 2]. Machine learning can be classified as supervised and unsupervised learning. In supervised learning, computers learn an objective that portrays an input to an output hinged on training input-output pairs [3]. Most efficient and widely used supervised learning algorithms are K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Large Margin Nearest Neighbor (LMNN), and Extended Nearest Neighbor (ENN). The main contribution of this paper is to implement these elegant learning algorithms on eleven different datasets from the UCI machine learning repository to observe the variation of accuracies for each of the algorithms on all datasets. Analyzing the accuracy of the algorithms will give us a brief idea about the relationship of the machine learning algorithms and the data dimensionality. All the algorithms are developed in Matlab. Upon such accuracy observation, the comparison can be built among KNN, SVM, LMNN, and ENN regarding their performances on each dataset.

Autonomous Vehicles navigating in urban areas have a need to understand and predict future pedestrian behavior for safer navigation. This high level of situational awareness requires observing pedestrian behavior and extrapolating their positions to know future positions. While some work has been done in this field using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), one of the few observed drawbacks of the method is the need for informed priors for learning behavior. In this work, an extension to the Growing Hidden Markov Model (GHMM) method is proposed to solve some of these drawbacks. This is achieved by building on existing work using potential cost maps and the principle of Natural Vision. As a consequence, the proposed model is able to predict pedestrian positions more precisely over a longer horizon compared to the state of the art. The method is tested over "legal" and "illegal" behavior of pedestrians, having trained the model with sparse observations and partial trajectories. The method, with no training data, is compared against a trained state of the art model. It is observed that the proposed method is robust even in new, previously unseen areas.

Learning Bayesian networks from raw data can help provide insights into the relationships between variables. While real data often contains a mixture of discrete and continuous-valued variables, many Bayesian network structure learning algorithms assume all random variables are discrete. Thus, continuous variables are often discretized when learning a Bayesian network. However, the choice of discretization policy has significant impact on the accuracy, speed, and interpretability of the resulting models. This paper introduces a principled Bayesian discretization method for continuous variables in Bayesian networks with quadratic complexity instead of the cubic complexity of other standard techniques. Empirical demonstrations show that the proposed method is superior to the established minimum description length algorithm. In addition, this paper shows how to incorporate existing methods into the structure learning process to discretize all continuous variables and simultaneously learn Bayesian network structures.

Life-expectancy is a complex outcome driven by genetic, socio-demographic, environmental and geographic factors. Increasing socio-economic and health disparities in the United States are propagating the longevity-gap, making it a cause for concern. Earlier studies have probed individual factors but an integrated picture to reveal quantifiable actions has been missing. Amidst growing concerns about the further widening of healthcare inequality and differential access created by Artificial Intelligence, it is imperative to explore it's potential for illuminating biases and enabling transparent policy decisions. In this work, we reveal actionable interventions for decreasing the longevity-gap in the United States by analyzing a County-level data resource with healthcare, socio-economic, behavioral, education and demographic features. We learn an ensemble-averaged structure, draw inferences using the joint probability distribution and extend it to a Bayesian Decision Network for identifying policy actions. We draw quantitative estimates for the positive roles of diversity, preventive-care quality and stable-families within the unified framework of our decision network. Finally, we make this analysis and dashboard available as an interactive web-application for enabling users and policy-makers to validate our insights on bridging the longevity-gap and explore the ones beyond reported in this work.

This paper addresses the question of identifying the time-window in short-term past from which the information regarding the future occupant's window opening actions and resulting window states in buildings can be predicted. The addressed sequence duration was in the range between 30 and 240 time-steps of indoor climate data, where the applied temporal discretization was one minute. For that purpose, a deep neural network is trained to predict the window states, where the input sequence duration is handled as an additional hyperparameter. Eventually, the relationship between the prediction accuracy and the time-lag of the predicted window state in future is analyzed. The results pointed out, that the optimal predictive performance was achieved for the case where 60 time-steps of the indoor climate data were used as input. Additionally, the results showed that very long sequences (120-240 time-steps) could be addressed efficiently, given the right hyperprameters. Hence, the use of the memory over previous hours of high-resolution indoor climate data did not improve the predictive performance, when compared to the case where 30/60 minutes indoor sequences were used. The analysis of the prediction accuracy in the form of F1 score for the different time-lag of future window states dropped from 0.51 to 0.27, when shifting the prediction target from 10 to 60 minutes in future.