Developing automated methods to give advance warning of large gatherings of people, such as protests and social unrest events, are of interest to government agencies worldwide. With such events often being organised over online social media platforms, there exists the possibility to provide prior warning of large events solely through monitoring online data streams. Researchers have used open online data sources such as Twitter (Borge-Holthoefer et al., 2016; Agarwal and Sureka, 2016), Facebook, Tumblr (Xu et al., 2014), and Flickr (Alanyali et al., 2015) to characterise information propagation processes around protests, and have deployed machine learning methods on social media as well as blogs, news sources, and the dark web (Korkmaz et al., 2016) to predict civil unrest events. Twitter data in particular has been used broadly to monitor diverse largescale trends such as stock behaviour (Bollen et al., 2011), public opinion polling around 1 issues like climate change (Cody et al., 2015), and health characteristics (Alajajian et al., 2017). Recent studies have focussed on Twitter's role in particular in mobilisation and discourse around protest action in the United States (Theocharis et al., 2015; Gallagher et al., 2018).

The representation of knowledge based on first-order logic captures the richness of natural language and supports multiple probabilistic inference models. Although symbolic representation enables quantitative reasoning with statistical probability, it is difficult to utilize with machine learning models as they perform numerical operations. In contrast, knowledge embedding (i.e., high-dimensional and continuous vectors) is a feasible approach to complex reasoning that can not only retain the semantic information of knowledge but also establish the quantifiable relationship among them. In this paper, we propose recursive neural knowledge network (RNKN), which combines medical knowledge based on first-order logic with recursive neural network for multi-disease diagnosis. After RNKN is efficiently trained from manually annotated Chinese Electronic Medical Records (CEMRs), diagnosis-oriented knowledge embeddings and weight matrixes are learned. Experimental results verify that the diagnostic accuracy of RNKN is superior to that of some classical machine learning models and Markov logic network (MLN). The results also demonstrate that the more explicit the evidence extracted from CEMRs is, the better is the performance achieved. RNKN gradually exhibits the interpretation of knowledge embeddings as the number of training epochs increases.

An increasing body of evidence suggests that the trial-to-trial variability of spiking activity in the brain is not mere noise, but rather the reflection of a sampling-based encoding scheme for probabilistic computing. Since the precise statistical properties of neural activity are important in this context, many models assume an ad-hoc source of well-behaved, explicit noise, either on the input or on the output side of single neuron dynamics, most often assuming an independent Poisson process in either case. However, these assumptions are somewhat problematic: neighboring neurons tend to share receptive fields, rendering both their input and their output correlated; at the same time, neurons are known to behave largely deterministically, as a function of their membrane potential and conductance. We suggest that spiking neural networks may, in fact, have no need for noise to perform sampling-based Bayesian inference. We study analytically the effect of auto- and cross-correlations in functionally Bayesian spiking networks and demonstrate how their effect translates to synaptic interaction strengths, rendering them controllable through synaptic plasticity. This allows even small ensembles of interconnected deterministic spiking networks to simultaneously and co-dependently shape their output activity through learning, enabling them to perform complex Bayesian computation without any need for noise, which we demonstrate in silico, both in classical simulation and in neuromorphic emulation. These results close a gap between the abstract models and the biology of functionally Bayesian spiking networks, effectively reducing the architectural constraints imposed on physical neural substrates required to perform probabilistic computing, be they biological or artificial.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as an alternative way of solving partial differential equations (PDEs) without the need of building elaborate grids, instead, using a straightforward implementation. In particular, in addition to the deep neural network (DNN) for the solution, a second DNN is considered that represents the residual of the PDE. The residual is then combined with the mismatch in the given data of the solution in order to formulate the loss function. This framework is effective but is lacking uncertainty quantification of the solution due to the inherent randomness in the data or due to the approximation limitations of the DNN architecture. Here, we propose a new method with the objective of endowing the DNN with uncertainty quantification for both sources of uncertainty, i.e., the parametric uncertainty and the approximation uncertainty. We first account for the parametric uncertainty when the parameter in the differential equation is represented as a stochastic process. Multiple DNNs are designed to learn the modal functions of the arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) expansion of its solution by using stochastic data from sparse sensors. We can then make predictions from new sensor measurements very efficiently with the trained DNNs. Moreover, we employ dropout to correct the over-fitting and also to quantify the uncertainty of DNNs in approximating the modal functions. We then design an active learning strategy based on the dropout uncertainty to place new sensors in the domain to improve the predictions of DNNs. Several numerical tests are conducted for both the forward and the inverse problems to quantify the effectiveness of PINNs combined with uncertainty quantification. This NN-aPC new paradigm of physics-informed deep learning with uncertainty quantification can be readily applied to other types of stochastic PDEs in multi-dimensions.

Simulation plays an essential role in comprehending a target system in many fields of social and industrial sciences. A major task in simulation is the estimation of parameters, and optimal parameters to express the observed data need to directly elucidate the properties of the target system as the design of the simulator is based on the expert's domain knowledge. However, skilled human experts struggle to find the desired parameters.Data assimilation therefore becomes an unavoidable task in simulator design to reduce the cost of simulator optimization. Another necessary task is extrapolation; in many practical cases, the prediction based on simulation results will be often outside of the dominant range of the given data area, and this is referred to as the covariate shift. This paper focuses on the regression problem with the covariate shift. While the parameter estimation for the covariate shift has been studied thoroughly in parametric and nonparametric settings, conventional statistical methods of parameter searching are not applicable in the data assimilation of the simulation owing to the properties of the likelihood function: intractable or nondifferentiable. To address these problems, we propose a novel framework of Bayesian inference based on kernel mean embedding that comprises an extended kernel approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) of the importance weighted regression, kernel herding, and the kernel sum rule. This framework makes the prediction available in covariate shift situations, and its effectiveness is evaluated in both synthetic numerical experiments and a widely used production simulator.

Determining the programming language of a source code file has been considered in the research community; it has been shown that Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) algorithms can be effective in identifying the programming language of source code files. However, determining the programming language of a code snippet or a few lines of source code is still a challenging task. Online forums such as Stack Overflow and code repositories such as GitHub contain a large number of code snippets. In this paper, we describe Source Code Classification (SCC), a classifier that can identify the programming language of code snippets written in 21 different programming languages. A Multinomial Naive Bayes (MNB) classifier is employed which is trained using Stack Overflow posts. It is shown to achieve an accuracy of 75% which is higher than that with Programming Languages Identification (PLI a proprietary online classifier of snippets) whose accuracy is only 55.5%. The average score for precision, recall and the F1 score with the proposed tool are 0.76, 0.75 and 0.75, respectively. In addition, it can distinguish between code snippets from a family of programming languages such as C, C++ and C#, and can also identify the programming language version such as C# 3.0, C# 4.0 and C# 5.0.

In reinforcement learning (RL) , one of the key components is policy evaluation, which aims to estimate the value function (i.e., expected long-term accumulated reward) of a policy. With a good policy evaluation method, the RL algorithms will estimate the value function more accurately and find a better policy. When the state space is large or continuous \emph{Gradient-based Temporal Difference(GTD)} policy evaluation algorithms with linear function approximation are widely used. Considering that the collection of the evaluation data is both time and reward consuming, a clear understanding of the finite sample performance of the policy evaluation algorithms is very important to reinforcement learning. Under the assumption that data are i.i.d. generated, previous work provided the finite sample analysis of the GTD algorithms with constant step size by converting them into convex-concave saddle point problems. However, it is well-known that, the data are generated from Markov processes rather than i.i.d. in RL problems.. In this paper, in the realistic Markov setting, we derive the finite sample bounds for the general convex-concave saddle point problems, and hence for the GTD algorithms. We have the following discussions based on our bounds. (1) With variants of step size, GTD algorithms converge. (2) The convergence rate is determined by the step size, with the mixing time of the Markov process as the coefficient. The faster the Markov processes mix, the faster the convergence. (3) We explain that the experience replay trick is effective by improving the mixing property of the Markov process. To the best of our knowledge, our analysis is the first to provide finite sample bounds for the GTD algorithms in Markov setting.

Asking questions is a pervasive human activity, but little is understood about what makes them difficult to answer. An analysis of a pair of large databases, of New York Times crosswords and questions from the quiz-show Jeopardy, establishes two orthogonal dimensions of question difficulty: obscurity (the rarity of the answer) and opacity (the indirectness of question cues, operationalized with word2vec). The importance of opacity, and the role of synergistic information in resolving it, suggests that accounts of difficulty in terms of prior expectations captures only a part of the question-asking process. A further regression analysis shows the presence of additional dimensions to question-asking: question complexity, the answer's local network density, cue intersection, and the presence of signal words. Our work shows how question-askers can help their interlocutors by using contextual cues, or, conversely, how a particular kind of unfamiliarity with the domain in question can make it harder for individuals to learn from others. Taken together, these results suggest how Bayesian models of question difficulty can be supplemented by process models and accounts of the heuristics individuals use to navigate conceptual spaces.

Aging population ratios are rising significantly. Meanwhile, smart home based health monitoring services are evolving rapidly to become a viable alternative to traditional healthcare solutions. Such services can augment qualitative analyses done by gerontologists with quantitative data. Hence, the recognition of Activities of Daily Living (ADL) has become an active domain of research in recent times. For a system to perform human activity recognition in a real-world environment, multiple requirements exist, such as scalability, robustness, ability to deal with uncertainty (e.g., missing sensor data), to operate with multi-occupants and to take into account their privacy and security. This paper attempts to address the requirements of scalability and robustness, by describing a reasoning mechanism based on modular spatial and/or temporal context models as a network of ontologies. The reasoning mechanism has been implemented in a smart home system referred to as Arianna+. The paper presents and discusses a use case, and experiments are performed on a simulated dataset, to showcase Arianna+'s modularity feature, internal working, and computational performance. Results indicate scalability and robustness for human activity recognition processes.

This paper proposes a method for efficient training of the Q-function for continuous-state Markov Decision Processes (MDP), such that the traces of the resulting policies satisfy a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) property. The logical property is converted into a limit deterministic Buchi automaton with which a product MDP is constructed. The control policy is then synthesized by a reinforcement learning algorithm assuming that no prior knowledge is available from the MDP. The proposed method is evaluated in a numerical study to test the quality of the generated control policy and is compared against conventional methods for policy synthesis such as MDP abstraction (Voronoi quantizer) and approximate dynamic programming (fitted value iteration).