Label shift, a prevalent challenge in supervised learning, arises when the class prior distribution of test data differs from that of training data, leading to significant degradation in classifier performance. To accurately estimate the test priors and enhance classification accuracy, we propose a Bayesian framework for label shift estimation, termed Full Maximum A Posterior Label Shift (FMAPLS), along with its online version, online-FMAPLS. Leveraging batch and online Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms, these methods jointly and dynamically optimize Dirichlet hyperparameters $\boldsymbolα$ and class priors $\boldsymbolπ$, thereby overcoming the rigid constraints of the existing Maximum A Posterior Label Shift (MAPLS) approach. Moreover, we introduce a linear surrogate function (LSF) to replace gradient-based hyperparameter updates, yielding closed-form solutions that reduce computational complexity while retaining asymptotic equivalence. The online variant substitutes the batch E-step with a stochastic approximation, enabling real-time adaptation to streaming data. Furthermore, our theoretical analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off between online convergence rate and estimation accuracy. Extensive experiments on CIFAR100 and ImageNet datasets under shuffled long-tail and Dirichlet test priors demonstrate that FMAPLS and online-FMAPLS respectively achieve up to 40% and 12% lower KL divergence and substantial improvements in post-shift accuracy over state-of-the-art baselines, particularly under severe class imbalance and distributional uncertainty. These results confirm the robustness, scalability, and suitability of the proposed methods for large-scale and dynamic learning scenarios.

Abstract-- T o support the circular economy, robotic systems must not only assemble new products but also disassemble end-of-life (EOL) ones for reuse, recycling, or safe disposal. Existing approaches to disassembly sequence planning often assume deterministic and fully observable product models, yet real EOL products frequently deviate from their initial designs due to wear, corrosion, or undocumented repairs. We argue that disassembly should therefore be formulated as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), which naturally captures uncertainty about the product's internal state. We present a mathematical formulation of disassembly as a POMDP, in which hidden variables represent uncertain structural or physical properties. Building on this formulation, we propose a task and motion planning framework that automatically derives specific POMDP models from CAD data, robot capabilities, and inspection results. T o obtain tractable policies, we approximate this formulation with a reinforcement-learning approach that operates on stochastic action outcomes informed by inspection priors, while a Bayesian filter continuously maintains beliefs over latent EOL conditions during execution. Using three products on two robotic systems, we demonstrate that this probabilistic planning framework outperforms deterministic baselines in terms of average disassembly time and variance, generalizes across different robot setups, and successfully adapts to deviations from the CAD model, such as missing or stuck parts. I. INTRODUCTION Modern industrial production still follows a linear model of make-use-dispose, accelerating the depletion of natural resources on our planet.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) holds significant promise for enabling cooperative driving among Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs). However, its practical application is hindered by a critical limitation, i.e., insufficient fault tolerance against observational faults. Such faults, which appear as perturbations in the vehicles' perceived data, can substantially compromise the performance of MARL-based driving systems. Addressing this problem presents two primary challenges. One is to generate adversarial perturbations that effectively stress the policy during training, and the other is to equip vehicles with the capability to mitigate the impact of corrupted observations. To overcome the challenges, we propose a fault-tolerant MARL method for cooperative on-ramp vehicles incorporating two key agents. First, an adversarial fault injection agent is co-trained to generate perturbations that actively challenge and harden the vehicle policies. Second, we design a novel fault-tolerant vehicle agent equipped with a self-diagnosis capability, which leverages the inherent spatio-temporal correlations in vehicle state sequences to detect faults and reconstruct credible observations, thereby shielding the policy from misleading inputs. Experiments in a simulated highway merging scenario demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms baseline MARL approaches, achieving near-fault-free levels of safety and efficiency under various observation fault patterns.

This study develops a hierarchical Bayesian framework that integrates expert domain knowledge to quantify player-specific effects in expected goals (xG) estimation, addressing a limitation of standard models that treat all players as identical finishers. Using 9,970 shots from StatsBomb's 2015-16 data and Football Manager 2017 ratings, we combine Bayesian logistic regression with informed priors to stabilise player-level estimates, especially for players with few shots. The hierarchical model reduces posterior uncertainty relative to weak priors and achieves strong external validity: hierarchical and baseline predictions correlate at R2 = 0.75, while an XGBoost benchmark validated against StatsBomb xG reaches R2 = 0.833. The model uncovers interpretable specialisation profiles, including one-on-one finishing (Aguero, Suarez, Belotti, Immobile, Martial), long-range shooting (Pogba), and first-touch execution (Insigne, Salah, Gameiro). It also identifies latent ability in underperforming players such as Immobile and Belotti. The framework supports counterfactual "what-if" analysis by reallocating shots between players under identical contexts. Case studies show that Sansone would generate +2.2 xG from Berardi's chances, driven largely by high-pressure situations, while Vardy-Giroud substitutions reveal strong asymmetry: replacing Vardy with Giroud results in a large decline (about -7 xG), whereas the reverse substitution has only a small effect (about -1 xG). This work provides an uncertainty-aware tool for player evaluation, recruitment, and tactical planning, and offers a general approach for domains where individual skill and contextual factors jointly shape performance.

Every day we share our personal information through digital systems which are constantly exposed to threats. For this reason, security-oriented disciplines of signal processing have received increasing attention in the last decades: multimedia forensics, digital watermarking, biometrics, network monitoring, steganography and steganalysis are just a few examples. Even though each of these fields has its own peculiarities, they all have to deal with a common problem: the presence of one or more adversaries aiming at making the system fail. Adversarial Signal Processing lays the basis of a general theory that takes into account the impact that the presence of an adversary has on the design of effective signal processing tools. By focusing on the application side of Adversarial Signal Processing, namely adversarial information fusion in distributed sensor networks, and adopting a game-theoretic approach, this thesis contributes to the above mission by addressing four issues. First, we address decision fusion in distributed sensor networks by developing a novel soft isolation defense scheme that protect the network from adversaries, specifically, Byzantines. Second, we develop an optimum decision fusion strategy in the presence of Byzantines. In the next step, we propose a technique to reduce the complexity of the optimum fusion by relying on a novel near-optimum message passing algorithm based on factor graphs. Finally, we introduce a defense mechanism to protect decentralized networks running consensus algorithm against data falsification attacks.

Reliable positioning in GNSS-challenged environments remains a critical challenge for navigation systems. Tightly coupled GNSS/IMU fusion improves robustness but remains vulnerable to non-Gaussian noise and outliers. We present a robust and adaptive factor graph-based fusion framework that directly integrates GNSS pseudorange measurements with IMU preintegration factors and incorporates the Barron loss, a general robust loss function that unifies several m-estimators through a single tunable parameter. By adaptively down weighting unreliable GNSS measurements, our approach improves resilience positioning. The method is implemented in an extended GTSAM framework and evaluated on the UrbanNav dataset. The proposed solution reduces positioning errors by up to 41% relative to standard FGO, and achieves even larger improvements over extended Kalman filter (EKF) baselines in urban canyon environments. These results highlight the benefits of Barron loss in enhancing the resilience of GNSS/IMU-based navigation in urban and signal-compromised environments.

Underwater visual localization remains challenging due to wavelength-dependent attenuation, poor texture, and non-Gaussian sensor noise. We introduce MARVO, a physics-aware, learning-integrated odometry framework that fuses underwater image formation modeling, differentiable matching, and reinforcement-learning optimization. At the front-end, we extend transformer-based feature matcher with a Physics Aware Radiance Adapter that compensates for color channel attenuation and contrast loss, yielding geometrically consistent feature correspondences under turbidity. These semi dense matches are combined with inertial and pressure measurements inside a factor-graph backend, where we formulate a keyframe-based visual-inertial-barometric estimator using GTSAM library. Each keyframe introduces (i) Pre-integrated IMU motion factors, (ii) MARVO-derived visual pose factors, and (iii) barometric depth priors, giving a full-state MAP estimate in real time. Lastly, we introduce a Reinforcement-Learningbased Pose-Graph Optimizer that refines global trajectories beyond local minima of classical least-squares solvers by learning optimal retraction actions on SE(2).

To understand how neural systems process information, it is often essential to compare one circuit with another, one brain with another, or data with a model. Traditional similarity measures ignore the dynamical processes underlying neural representations. Dynamical similarity methods offer a framework to compare the temporal structure of dynamical systems by embedding their (possibly) nonlinear dynamics into a globally linear space and there computing conjugacy metrics. However, identifying the best embedding and computing these metrics can be computationally slow. Here we introduce fast Dynamical Similarity Analysis (fastDSA), which is computationally far more efficient than previous methods while maintaining their accuracy and robustness. FastDSA introduces two key components that boost efficiency: (1) automatic selection of the effective model order of the Hankel (delay) embedding from the data via a data-driven singular-value threshold that identifies the informative subspace and discards noise to lower computational cost without sacrificing signal, and (2) a novel optimization procedure and objective, which replaces the slow exact orthogonality constraint in finding a minimal distance between dynamics matrices with a lightweight process to keep the search close to the space of orthogonal transformations. We demonstrate that fastDSA is at least an order of magnitude faster than the previous methods. Furthermore, we demonstrate that fastDSA has the properties of its ancestor, including its invariances and sensitivities to system dynamics. FastDSA, therefore, provides a computationally efficient and accurate method for dynamical similarity analysis.

We find that in Hanabi, one of the most complex and popular benchmarks for zero-shot coordination and ad-hoc teamplay, a standard implementation of independent PPO with a slightly higher entropy coefficient 0.05 instead of the typically used 0.01, achieves a new state-of-the-art in cross-play between different seeds, beating by a significant margin all previous specialized algorithms, which were specifically designed for this setting. We provide an intuition for why sufficiently high entropy regularization ensures that different random seed produce joint policies which are mutually compatible. We also empirically find that a high $λ_{\text{GAE}}$ around 0.9, and using RNNs instead of just feed-forward layers in the actor-critic architecture, strongly increase inter-seed cross-play. While these results demonstrate the dramatic effect that hyperparameters can have not just on self-play scores but also on cross-play scores, we show that there are simple Dec-POMDPs though, in which standard policy gradient methods with increased entropy regularization are not able to achieve perfect inter-seed cross-play, thus demonstrating the continuing necessity for new algorithms for zero-shot coordination.

Methods for probability updating, of which Bayesian conditionalization is the most well-known and widely used, are modeling tools that aim to represent the process of modifying an initial epistemic state, typically represented by a prior probability function P, which is adjusted in light of new information. Notably, updating methods and conditional sentences seem to intuitively share a deep connection, as is evident in the case of conditionalization. The present work contributes to this line of research and aims at shedding new light on the relationship between updating methods and conditional connectives. Departing from previous literature that often focused on a specific type of conditional or a particular updating method, our goal is to prove general results concerning the connection between conditionals and their probabilities. This will allow us to characterize the probabilities of certain conditional connectives and to understand what class of updating procedures can be represented using specific conditional connectives. Broadly, we adopt a general perspective that encompasses a large class of conditionals and a wide range of updating methods, enabling us to prove some general results concerning their interrelation.