Learning Graphical Models
A Novel MDP Decomposition Framework for Scalable UAV Mission Planning in Complex and Uncertain Environments
Quamar, Md Muzakkir, Nasir, Ali, ELFerik, Sami
This paper presents a scalable and fault-tolerant framework for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mission management in complex and uncertain environments. The proposed approach addresses the computational bottleneck inherent in solving large-scale Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) by introducing a two-stage decomposition strategy. In the first stage, a factor-based algorithm partitions the global MDP into smaller, goal-specific sub-MDPs by leveraging domain-specific features such as goal priority, fault states, spatial layout, and energy constraints. In the second stage, a priority-based recombination algorithm solves each sub-MDP independently and integrates the results into a unified global policy using a meta-policy for conflict resolution. Importantly, we present a theoretical analysis showing that, under mild probabilistic independence assumptions, the combined policy is provably equivalent to the optimal global MDP policy. Our work advances artificial intelligence (AI) decision scalability by decomposing large MDPs into tractable subproblems with provable global equivalence. The proposed decomposition framework enhances the scalability of Markov Decision Processes, a cornerstone of sequential decision-making in artificial intelligence, enabling real-time policy updates for complex mission environments. Extensive simulations validate the effectiveness of our method, demonstrating orders-of-magnitude reduction in computation time without sacrificing mission reliability or policy optimality. The proposed framework establishes a practical and robust foundation for scalable decision-making in real-time UAV mission execution.
Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Regression using Contextualised Normalizing Flows
Marco, Adriel Sosa, Kirwan, John Daniel, Toumpa, Alexia, Gerasimou, Simos
Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional information, neglecting the effect of multimodal or asymmetric distributions on decision-making. Similarly, full or approximated Bayesian methods, while yielding the predictive posterior density, demand major modifications to the model architecture and retraining. We introduce MCNF, a novel post hoc uncertainty quantification method that produces both prediction intervals and the full conditioned predictive distribution. MCNF operates on top of the underlying trained predictive model; thus, no predictive model retraining is needed. We provide experimental evidence that the MCNF-based uncertainty estimate is well calibrated, is competitive with state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, and provides richer information for downstream decision-making tasks.
HAVEN: Hierarchical Adversary-aware Visibility-Enabled Navigation with Cover Utilization using Deep Transformer Q-Networks
Chauhan, Mihir, Conover, Damon, Bera, Aniket
Autonomous navigation in partially observable environments requires agents to reason beyond immediate sensor input, exploit occlusion, and ensure safety while progressing toward a goal. These challenges arise in many robotics domains, from urban driving and warehouse automation to defense and surveillance. Classical path planning approaches and memoryless reinforcement learning often fail under limited fields of view (FoVs) and occlusions, committing to unsafe or inefficient maneuvers. We propose a hierarchical navigation framework that integrates a Deep Transformer Q-Network (DTQN) as a high-level subgoal selector with a modular low-level controller for waypoint execution. The DTQN consumes short histories of task-aware features, encoding odometry, goal direction, obstacle proximity, and visibility cues, and outputs Q-values to rank candidate subgoals. Visibility-aware candidate generation introduces masking and exposure penalties, rewarding the use of cover and anticipatory safety. A low-level potential field controller then tracks the selected subgoal, ensuring smooth short-horizon obstacle avoidance. We validate our approach in 2D simulation and extend it directly to a 3D Unity-ROS environment by projecting point-cloud perception into the same feature schema, enabling transfer without architectural changes. Results show consistent improvements over classical planners and RL baselines in success rate, safety margins, and time to goal, with ablations confirming the value of temporal memory and visibility-aware candidate design. These findings highlight a generalizable framework for safe navigation under uncertainty, with broad relevance across robotic platforms.
InF-ATPG: Intelligent FFR-Driven ATPG with Advanced Circuit Representation Guided Reinforcement Learning
Sun, Bin, Zhang, Rengang, Chao, Zhiteng, Liu, Zizhen, Mu, Jianan, Ye, Jing, Li, Huawei
Automatic test pattern generation (ATPG) is a crucial process in integrated circuit (IC) design and testing, responsible for efficiently generating test patterns. As semiconductor technology progresses, traditional ATPG struggles with long execution times to achieve the expected fault coverage, which impacts the time-to-market of chips. Recent machine learning techniques, like reinforcement learning (RL) and graph neural networks (GNNs), show promise but face issues such as reward delay in RL models and inadequate circuit representation in GNN-based methods. In this paper, we propose InF-ATPG, an intelligent FFR-driven ATPG framework that overcomes these challenges by using advanced circuit representation to guide RL. By partitioning circuits into fanout-free regions (FFRs) and incorporating ATPG-specific features into a novel QGNN architecture, InF-ATPG enhances test pattern generation efficiency. Experimental results show InF-ATPG reduces backtracks by 55.06\% on average compared to traditional methods and 38.31\% compared to the machine learning approach, while also improving fault coverage.
Does Self-Evaluation Enable Wireheading in Language Models?
Africa, David Demitri, Ting, Hans Ethan
Self-evaluation is increasingly central to language model training, underpinning techniques from Constitutional AI to self-refinement. We investigate whether coupling self-evaluation to reward signals creates incentives for wireheading, where agents manipulate the measurement process rather than optimizing the task. We first formalize conditions under which reward-channel control strictly dominates task-focused behavior in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We then test these predictions empirically across two models (Llama-3.1-8B and Mistral-7B) and three tasks. We find that when self-grades determine rewards, models exhibit substantial grade inflation without corresponding accuracy gains, particularly on ambiguous tasks like summarization. While decoupling self-grades from the reward signal mitigates this inflation, models may still display lesser (but significant) overconfidence. Our results suggest that within current model scales, separating evaluation from reward removes immediate wireheading incentives. However, we caution that strictly decoupling rewards may not suffice for situationally aware models, which could learn to inflate grades for instrumental reasons (such as influencing deployment decisions) even absent direct reward coupling.
Tool-RoCo: An Agent-as-Tool Self-organization Large Language Model Benchmark in Multi-robot Cooperation
Zhang, Ke, Zhao, Xiaoning, Zheng, Ce, Ning, Jiahong, Zhu, Dandan, Zhang, Wenqi, Sun, Chen, Sugawara, Toshiharu
This study proposes Tool-RoCo, a novel benchmark for evaluating large language models (LLMs) in long-term multi-agent cooperation based on RoCo, a multi-robot cooperative benchmark. Recent research on LLM-based multi-agent systems has relied on predefined orchestration, while ignoring agent autonomy. Tool-RoCo treats other agents as tools and introduces cooperative tools, leveraging tool usage to evaluate multi-agent cooperation and self-organization. Tool usage means that each agent (LLM) selects a tool from a candidate set based on the current state, receives feedback, and adjusts its selection in subsequent rounds. To evaluate different autonomy levels, we propose four LLM paradigms: (1) centralized cooperation, where a single LLM allocates tools to all agents; (2) centralized self-organization, where a central LLM autonomously activates agents while keeping others inactive; (3) decentralized cooperation, where each agent has its own LLM and calls tools based on local information; and (4) self-organization, where a randomly chosen initial agent can request collaboration, activating additional agents via tool calls. Tool-RoCo includes three multi-robot tasks, SORT, P ACK, and CABINET, to measure format and parameter accuracy and agent coordination through tool usage. The results using several LLMs showed that cooperative tools accounted for only 7.09% of all tools, indicating that LLM-based agents rarely invoked others as assistants. Moreover, activation tools accounted for 96.42%, suggesting that current LLMs tend to maintain active agents while seldom deactivating them for adaptive coordination. Tool-RoCo provides a systematic benchmark to evaluate LLM autonomy and cooperation in multi-agent tasks.
EQ-Negotiator: Dynamic Emotional Personas Empower Small Language Models for Edge-Deployable Credit Negotiation
Long, Yunbo, Liu, Yuhan, Brintrup, Alexandra
The deployment of large language models (LLMs) in automated negotiation has set a high performance benchmark, but their computational cost and data privacy requirements render them unsuitable for many privacy-sensitive, on-device applications such as mobile assistants, embodied AI agents or private client interactions. While small language models (SLMs) offer a practical alternative, they suffer from a significant performance gap compared to LLMs in playing emotionally charged complex personas, especially for credit negotiation. This paper introduces EQ-Negotiator, a novel framework that bridges this capability gap using emotional personas. Its core is a reasoning system that integrates game theory with a Hidden Markov Model(HMM) to learn and track debtor emotional states online, without pre-training. This allows EQ-Negotiator to equip SLMs with the strategic intelligence to counter manipulation while de-escalating conflict and upholding ethical standards. Through extensive agent-to-agent simulations across diverse credit negotiation scenarios, including adversarial debtor strategies like cheating, threatening, and playing the victim, we show that a 7B parameter language model with EQ-Negotiator achieves better debt recovery and negotiation efficiency than baseline LLMs more than 10 times its size. This work advances persona modeling from descriptive character profiles to dynamic emotional architectures that operate within privacy constraints. Besides, this paper establishes that strategic emotional intelligence, not raw model scale, is the critical factor for success in automated negotiation, paving the way for effective, ethical, and privacy-preserving AI negotiators that can operate on the edge.
Multi-Agent Conditional Diffusion Model with Mean Field Communication as Wireless Resource Allocation Planner
Meng, Kechen, Zhang, Sinuo, Li, Rongpeng, Meng, Xiangming, Deng, Yansha, Wang, Chan, Lei, Ming, Zhao, Zhifeng
In wireless communication systems, efficient and adaptive resource allocation plays a crucial role in enhancing overall Quality of Service (QoS). Compared to the conventional Model-Free Reinforcement Learning (MFRL) scheme, Model-Based RL (MBRL) first learns a generative world model for subsequent planning. The reuse of historical experience in MBRL promises more stable training behavior, yet its deployment in large-scale wireless networks remains challenging due to high-dimensional stochastic dynamics, strong inter-agent cooperation, and communication constraints. To overcome these challenges, we propose the Multi-Agent Conditional Diffusion Model Planner (MA-CDMP) for decentralized communication resource management. Built upon the Distributed Training with Decentralized Execution (DTDE) paradigm, MA-CDMP models each communication node as an autonomous agent and employs Diffusion Models (DMs) to capture and predict environment dynamics. Meanwhile, an inverse dynamics model guides action generation, thereby enhancing sample efficiency and policy scalability. Moreover, to approximate large-scale agent interactions, a Mean-Field (MF) mechanism is introduced as an assistance to the classifier in DMs. This design mitigates inter-agent non-stationarity and enhances cooperation with minimal communication overhead in distributed settings. We further theoretically establish an upper bound on the distributional approximation error introduced by the MF-based diffusion generation, guaranteeing convergence stability and reliable modeling of multi-agent stochastic dynamics. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MA-CDMP consistently outperforms existing MARL baselines in terms of average reward and QoS metrics, showcasing its scalability and practicality for real-world wireless network optimization.
Conformal Prediction for Time-series Forecasting with Change Points
Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying data-generating process. In this paper, we propose a novel Conformal Prediction for Time-series with Change points (CPTC) algorithm, addressing this gap by integrating a model to predict the underlying state with online conformal prediction to model uncertainties in non-stationary time series. We prove CPTC's validity and improved adaptivity in the time series setting under minimum assumptions, and demonstrate CPTC's practical effectiveness on 6 synthetic and real-world datasets, showing improved validity and adaptivity compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
RTNinja: A generalized machine learning framework for analyzing random telegraph noise signals in nanoelectronic devices
Varanasi, Anirudh, Degraeve, Robin, Roussel, Philippe, Merckling, Clement
Random telegraph noise is a prevalent variability phenomenon in nanoelectronic devices, arising from stochastic carrier exchange at defect sites and critically impacting device reliability and performance. Conventional analysis techniques often rely on restrictive assumptions or manual interventions, limiting their applicability to complex, noisy datasets. Here, we introduce RTNinja, a generalized, fully automated machine learning framework for the unsupervised analysis of random telegraph noise signals. RTNinja deconvolves complex signals to identify the number and characteristics of hidden individual sources without requiring prior knowledge of the system. The framework comprises two modular components: LevelsExtractor, which uses Bayesian inference and model selection to denoise and discretize the signal, and SourcesMapper, which infers source configurations through probabilistic clustering and optimization. To evaluate performance, we developed a Monte Carlo simulator that generates labeled datasets spanning broad signal-to-noise ratios and source complexities; across 7000 such datasets, RTNinja consistently demonstrated high-fidelity signal reconstruction and accurate extraction of source amplitudes and activity patterns. Our results demonstrate that RTNinja offers a robust, scalable, and device-agnostic tool for random telegraph noise characterization, enabling large-scale statistical benchmarking, reliability-centric technology qualification, predictive failure modeling, and device physics exploration in next-generation nanoelectronics.