The existing approaches to intrinsic dimension estimation usually are not reliable when the data are nonlinearly embedded in the high dimensional space. In this work, we show that the explicit accounting to geometric properties of unknown support leads to the polynomial correction to the standard maximum likelihood estimate of intrinsic dimension for flat manifolds. The proposed algorithm (GeoMLE) realizes the correction by regression of standard MLEs based on distances to nearest neighbors for different sizes of neighborhoods. Moreover, the proposed approach also efficiently handles the case of nonuniform sampling of the manifold. We perform numerous experiments on different synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that our algorithm achieves state-of-the-art performance, while also being computationally efficient and robust to noise in the data.

We propose a supervised anomaly detection method based on neural density estimators, where the negative log likelihood is used for the anomaly score. Density estimators have been widely used for unsupervised anomaly detection. By the recent advance of deep learning, the density estimation performance has been greatly improved. However, the neural density estimators cannot exploit anomaly label information, which would be valuable for improving the anomaly detection performance. The proposed method effectively utilizes the anomaly label information by training the neural density estimator so that the likelihood of normal instances is maximized and the likelihood of anomalous instances is lower than that of the normal instances. We employ an autoregressive model for the neural density estimator, which enables us to calculate the likelihood exactly. With the experiments using 16 datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed method improves the anomaly detection performance with a few labeled anomalous instances, and achieves better performance than existing unsupervised and supervised anomaly detection methods.

Variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a fast and computationally-efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for Bayesian estimation of mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) models. It has been established that VB is substantially faster than MCMC at practically no compromises in predictive accuracy. In this paper, we address two critical gaps concerning the usage and understanding of VB for MMNL. First, extant VB methods are limited to utility specifications involving only individual-specific taste parameters. Second, the finite-sample properties of VB estimators and the relative performance of VB, MCMC and maximum simulated likelihood estimation (MSLE) are not known. To address the former, this study extends several VB methods for MMNL to admit utility specifications including both fixed and random utility parameters. To address the latter, we conduct an extensive simulation-based evaluation to benchmark the extended VB methods against MCMC and MSLE in terms of estimation times, parameter recovery and predictive accuracy. The results suggest that all VB variants perform as well as MCMC and MSLE at prediction and recovery of all model parameters with the exception of the covariance matrix of the multivariate normal mixing distribution. In particular, VB with nonconjugate variational message passing and the delta-method (VB-NCVMP-Delta) is relatively accurate and up to 15 times faster than MCMC and MSLE. On the whole, VB-NCVMP-Delta is most suitable for applications in which fast predictions are paramount, while MCMC should be preferred in applications in which accurate inferences are most important.

Underwater gas reservoirs are used in many situations. In particular, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facilities that are currently being developed intend to store greenhouse gases inside geological formations in the deep sea. In these formations, however, the gas might percolate, leaking back to the water and eventually to the atmosphere. The early detection of such leaks is therefore tantamount to any underwater CCS project. In this work, we propose to use Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) and a machine learning approach to design efficient detectors that can signal the presence of a leakage. We use data obtained from simulation experiments off the Brazilian shore, and show that the detection based on classification algorithms achieve good performance. We also propose a smoothing strategy based on Hidden Markov Models in order to incorporate previous knowledge about the probabilities of leakage occurrences.

Deep Q-Learning has been successfully applied to a wide variety of tasks in the past several years. However, the architecture of the vanilla Deep Q-Network is not suited to deal with partially observable environments such as 3D video games. For this, recurrent layers have been added to the Deep Q-Network in order to allow it to handle past dependencies. We here use Minecraft for its customization advantages and design two very simple missions that can be frames as Partially Observable Markov Decision Process. We compare on these missions the Deep Q-Network and the Deep Recurrent Q-Network in order to see if the latter, which is trickier and longer to train, is always the best architecture when the agent has to deal with partial observability.

Neural density estimators are flexible families of parametric models which have seen widespread use in unsupervised machine learning in recent years. Maximum-likelihood training typically dictates that these models be constrained to specify an explicit density. However, this limitation can be overcome by instead using a neural network to specify an energy function, or unnormalized density, which can subsequently be normalized to obtain a valid distribution. The challenge with this approach lies in accurately estimating the normalizing constant of the high-dimensional energy function. We propose the Autoregressive Energy Machine, an energy-based model which simultaneously learns an unnormalized density and computes an importance-sampling estimate of the normalizing constant for each conditional in an autoregressive decomposition. The Autoregressive Energy Machine achieves state-of-the-art performance on a suite of density-estimation tasks.

The quest of `can machines think' and `can machines do what human do' are quests that drive the development of artificial intelligence. Although recent artificial intelligence succeeds in many data intensive applications, it still lacks the ability of learning from limited exemplars and fast generalizing to new tasks. To tackle this problem, one has to turn to machine learning, which supports the scientific study of artificial intelligence. Particularly, a machine learning problem called Few-Shot Learning (FSL) targets at this case. It can rapidly generalize to new tasks of limited supervised experience by turning to prior knowledge, which mimics human's ability to acquire knowledge from few examples through generalization and analogy. It has been seen as a test-bed for real artificial intelligence, a way to reduce laborious data gathering and computationally costly training, and antidote for rare cases learning. With extensive works on FSL emerging, we give a comprehensive survey for it. We first give the formal definition for FSL. Then we point out the core issues of FSL, which turns the problem from "how to solve FSL" to "how to deal with the core issues". Accordingly, existing works from the birth of FSL to the most recent published ones are categorized in a unified taxonomy, with thorough discussion of the pros and cons for different categories. Finally, we envision possible future directions for FSL in terms of problem setup, techniques, applications and theory, hoping to provide insights to both beginners and experienced researchers.

Many interesting problems in fields ranging from telecommunications to computational biology can be formalized in terms of large underdetermined systems of linear equations with additional constraints or regularizers. One of the most studied ones, the Compressed Sensing problem (CS), consists in finding the solution with the smallest number of non-zero components of a given system of linear equations $\boldsymbol y = \mathbf{F} \boldsymbol w$ for known measurement vector $\boldsymbol y$ and sensing matrix $\mathbf{F}$. Here, we will address the compressed sensing problem within a Bayesian inference framework where the sparsity constraint is remapped into a singular prior distribution (called Spike-and-Slab or Bernoulli-Gauss). Solution to the problem is attempted through the computation of marginal distributions via Expectation Propagation (EP), an iterative computational scheme originally developed in Statistical Physics. We will show that this strategy is comparatively more accurate than the alternatives in solving instances of CS generated from statistically correlated measurement matrices. For computational strategies based on the Bayesian framework such as variants of Belief Propagation, this is to be expected, as they implicitly rely on the hypothesis of statistical independence among the entries of the sensing matrix. Perhaps surprisingly, the method outperforms uniformly also all the other state-of-the-art methods in our tests.

Most real-world datasets, and particularly those collected from physical systems, are full of noise, packet loss, and other imperfections. However, most specification mining, anomaly detection and other such algorithms assume, or even require, perfect data quality to function properly. Such algorithms may work in lab conditions when given clean, controlled data, but will fail in the field when given imperfect data. We propose a method for accurately reconstructing discrete temporal or sequential system traces affected by data loss, using Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs). The model works by learning to predict the next event in a sequence of events, and uses its own output as an input to continue predicting future events. As a result, this method can be used for data restoration even with streamed data. Such a method can reconstruct even long sequence of missing events, and can also help validate and improve data quality for noisy data. The output of the model will be a close reconstruction of the true data, and can be fed to algorithms that rely on clean data. We demonstrate our method by reconstructing automotive CAN traces consisting of long sequences of discrete events. We show that given even small parts of a CAN trace, our LSTM model can predict future events with an accuracy of almost 90%, and can successfully reconstruct large portions of the original trace, greatly outperforming a Markov Model benchmark. We separately feed the original, lossy, and reconstructed traces into a specification mining framework to perform downstream analysis of the effect of our method on state-of-the-art models that use these traces for understanding the behavior of complex systems.

Multitask algorithms typically use task similarity information as a bias to speed up and improve the performance of learning processes. Tasks are learned jointly, sharing information across them, in order to construct models more accurate than those learned separately over single tasks. In this contribution, we present the first multitask model, to our knowledge, based on Hopfield Networks (HNs), named HoMTask. We show that by appropriately building a unique HN embedding all tasks, a more robust and effective classification model can be learned. HoMTask is a transductive semi-supervised parametric HN, that minimizes an energy function extended to all nodes and to all tasks under study. We provide theoretical evidence that the optimal parameters automatically estimated by HoMTask make coherent the model itself with the prior knowledge (connection weights and node labels). The convergence properties of HNs are preserved, and the fixed point reached by the network dynamics gives rise to the prediction of unlabeled nodes. The proposed model improves the classification abilities of singletask HNs on a preliminary benchmark comparison, and achieves competitive performance with state-of-the-art semi-supervised graph-based algorithms.