We propose a method for constructing artificial intelligence (AI) of mahjong, which is a multiplayer imperfect information game. Since the size of the game tree is huge, constructing an expert-level AI player of mahjong is challenging. We define multiple Markov decision processes (MDPs) as abstractions of mahjong to construct effective search trees. We also introduce two methods of inferring state values of the original mahjong using these MDPs. We evaluated the effectiveness of our method using gameplays vis-\`{a}-vis the current strongest AI player.

The Cox proportional hazards model is ubiquitous in the analysis of time-to-event data. However, when the data dimension p is comparable to the sample size $N$, maximum likelihood estimates for its regression parameters are known to be biased or break down entirely due to overfitting. This prompted the introduction of the so-called regularized Cox model. In this paper we use the replica method from statistical physics to investigate the relationship between the true and inferred regression parameters in regularized multivariate Cox regression with L2 regularization, in the regime where both p and N are large but with p/N ~ O(1). We thereby generalize a recent study from maximum likelihood to maximum a posteriori inference. We also establish a relationship between the optimal regularization parameter and p/N, allowing for straightforward overfitting corrections in time-to-event analysis.

The standard Gibbs sampler of Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL) models involves sampling from conditional densities of utility parameters using Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm due to unavailability of conjugate prior for logit kernel. To address this non-conjugacy concern, we propose the application of P\'olygamma data augmentation (PG-DA) technique for the MMNL estimation. The posterior estimates of the augmented and the default Gibbs sampler are similar for two-alternative scenario (binary choice), but we encounter empirical identification issues in the case of more alternatives ($J \geq 3$).

Spectral embedding of adjacency or Laplacian matrices of undirected graphs is a common technique for representing a network in a lower dimensional latent space, with optimal theoretical guarantees. The embedding can be used to estimate the community structure of the network, with strong consistency results in the stochastic blockmodel framework. One of the main practical limitations of standard algorithms for community detection from spectral embeddings is that the number of communities and the latent dimension of the embedding must be specified in advance. In this article, a novel Bayesian model for simultaneous and automatic selection of the appropriate dimension of the latent space and the number of blocks is proposed. Extensions to directed and bipartite graphs are discussed. The model is tested on simulated and real world network data, showing promising performance for recovering latent community structure.

Given a set of empirical observations, conditional density estimation aims to capture the statistical relationship between a conditional variable $\mathbf{x}$ and a dependent variable $\mathbf{y}$ by modeling their conditional probability $p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{x})$. The paper develops best practices for conditional density estimation for finance applications with neural networks, grounded on mathematical insights and empirical evaluations. In particular, we introduce a noise regularization and data normalization scheme, alleviating problems with over-fitting, initialization and hyper-parameter sensitivity of such estimators. We compare our proposed methodology with popular semi- and non-parametric density estimators, underpin its effectiveness in various benchmarks on simulated and Euro Stoxx 50 data and show its superior performance. Our methodology allows to obtain high-quality estimators for statistical expectations of higher moments, quantiles and non-linear return transformations, with very little assumptions about the return dynamic.

In this paper, we consider advancing web-scale knowledge extraction and alignment by integrating OpenIE extractions in the form of (subject, predicate, object) triples with Knowledge Bases (KB). Traditional techniques from universal schema and from schema mapping fall in two extremes: either they perform instance-level inference relying on embedding for (subject, object) pairs, thus cannot handle pairs absent in any existing triples; or they perform predicate-level mapping and completely ignore background evidence from individual entities, thus cannot achieve satisfying quality. We propose OpenKI to handle sparsity of OpenIE extractions by performing instance-level inference: for each entity, we encode the rich information in its neighborhood in both KB and OpenIE extractions, and leverage this information in relation inference by exploring different methods of aggregation and attention. In order to handle unseen entities, our model is designed without creating entity-specific parameters. Extensive experiments show that this method not only significantly improves state-of-the-art for conventional OpenIE extractions like ReVerb, but also boosts the performance on OpenIE from semi-structured data, where new entity pairs are abundant and data are fairly sparse.

Credit scoring models based on accepted applications may be biased and their consequences can have a statistical and economic impact. Reject inference is the process of attempting to infer the creditworthiness status of the rejected applications. In this research, we use deep generative models to develop two new semi-supervised Bayesian models for reject inference in credit scoring, in which we model the data generating process to be dependent on a Gaussian mixture. The goal is to improve the classification accuracy in credit scoring models by adding reject applications. Our proposed models infer the unknown creditworthiness of the rejected applications by exact enumeration of the two possible outcomes of the loan (default or non-default). The efficient stochastic gradient optimization technique used in deep generative models makes our models suitable for large data sets. Finally, the experiments in this research show that our proposed models perform better than classical and alternative machine learning models for reject inference in credit scoring.

Nanowire field-effect sensors have recently been developed for label-free detection of biomolecules. In this work, we introduce a computational technique based on Bayesian estimation to determine the physical parameters of the sensor and, more importantly, the properties of the analyte molecules. To that end, we first propose a PDE based model to simulate the device charge transport and electrochemical behavior. Then, the adaptive Metropolis algorithm with delayed rejection (DRAM) is applied to estimate the posterior distribution of unknown parameters, namely molecule charge density, molecule density, doping concentration, and electron and hole mobilities. We determine the device and molecules properties simultaneously, and we also calculate the molecule density as the only parameter after having determined the device parameters. This approach makes it possible not only to determine unknown parameters, but it also shows how well each parameter can be determined by yielding the probability density function (pdf).

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of an equipment or one of its components is defined as the time left until the equipment or component reaches its end of useful life. Accurate RUL estimation is exceptionally beneficial to Predictive Maintenance, and Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). Data driven approaches which leverage the power of algorithms for RUL estimation using sensor and operational time series data are gaining popularity. Existing algorithms, such as linear regression, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), have their own limitations for the RUL estimation task. In this work, we propose a novel Functional Data Analysis (FDA) method called functional Multilayer Perceptron (functional MLP) for RUL estimation. Functional MLP treats time series data from multiple equipment as a sample of random continuous processes over time. FDA explicitly incorporates both the correlations within the same equipment and the random variations across different equipment's sensor time series into the model. FDA also has the benefit of allowing the relationship between RUL and sensor variables to vary over time. We implement functional MLP on the benchmark NASA C-MAPSS data and evaluate the performance using two popularly-used metrics. Results show the superiority of our algorithm over all the other state-of-the-art methods.

In this article we use rate-distortion theory, a branch of information theory devoted to the problem of lossy compression, to shed light on an important problem in latent variable modeling of data: is there room to improve the model? One way to address this question is to find an upper bound on the probability (equivalently a lower bound on the negative log likelihood) that the model can assign to some data as one varies the prior and/or the likelihood function in a latent variable model. The core of our contribution is to formally show that the problem of optimizing priors in latent variable models is exactly an instance of the variational optimization problem that information theorists solve when computing rate-distortion functions, and then to use this to derive a lower bound on negative log likelihood. Moreover, we will show that if changing the prior can improve the log likelihood, then there is a way to change the likelihood function instead and attain the same log likelihood, and thus rate-distortion theory is of relevance to both optimizing priors as well as optimizing likelihood functions. We will experimentally argue for the usefulness of quantities derived from rate-distortion theory in latent variable modeling by applying them to a problem in image modeling.