This work tackles the problem of robust zero-shot planning in non-stationary stochastic environments. We study Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) evolving over time and consider Model-Based Reinforcement Learning algorithms in this setting. We make two hypotheses: 1) the environment evolves continuously and its evolution rate is bounded, 2) a current model is known at each decision epoch but not its evolution. Our contribution can be presented in four points. First, we define this specific class of MDPs that we call Non-Stationary MDPs (NSMDPs). We introduce the notion of regular evolution by making an hypothesis of Lipschitz-Continuity on the transition and reward functions w.r.t. time. Secondly, we consider a planning agent using the current model of the environment, but unaware of its future evolution. This leads us to consider a worst-case method where the environment is seen as an adversarial agent. Third, following this approach, we propose the Risk-Averse Tree-Search (RATS) algorithm. This is a zero-shot Model-Based method similar to Minimax search. Finally, we illustrate the benefits brought by RATS empirically and compare its performance with reference Model-Based algorithms.

Learning a faithful directed acyclic graph (DAG) from samples of a joint distribution is a challenging combinatorial problem, owing to the intractable search space superexponential in the number of graph nodes. A recent breakthrough formulates the problem as a continuous optimization with a structural constraint that ensures acyclicity (Zheng et al., 2018). The authors apply the approach to the linear structural equation model (SEM) and the least-squares loss function that are statistically well justified but nevertheless limited. Motivated by the widespread success of deep learning that is capable of capturing complex nonlinear mappings, in this work we propose a deep generative model and apply a variant of the structural constraint to learn the DAG. At the heart of the generative model is a variational autoencoder parameterized by a novel graph neural network architecture, which we coin DAG-GNN. In addition to the richer capacity, an advantage of the proposed model is that it naturally handles discrete variables as well as vector-valued ones. We demonstrate that on synthetic data sets, the proposed method learns more accurate graphs for nonlinearly generated samples; and on benchmark data sets with discrete variables, the learned graphs are reasonably close to the global optima. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/fishmoon1234/DAG-GNN}.

Decomposition methods have been proposed to approximate solutions to large sequential decision making problems. In contexts where an agent interacts with multiple entities, utility decomposition can be used to separate the global objective into local tasks considering each individual entity independently. An arbitrator is then responsible for combining the individual utilities and selecting an action in real time to solve the global problem. Although these techniques can perform well empirically, they rely on strong assumptions of independence between the local tasks and sacrifice the optimality of the global solution. This paper proposes an approach that improves upon such approximate solutions by learning a correction term represented by a neural network. We demonstrate this approach on a fisheries management problem where multiple boats must coordinate to maximize their catch over time as well as on a pedestrian avoidance problem for autonomous driving. In each problem, decomposition methods can scale to multiple boats or pedestrians by using strategies involving one entity. We verify empirically that the proposed correction method significantly improves the decomposition method and outperforms a policy trained on the full scale problem without utility decomposition.

Gaussian processes (GP) for machine learning have been studied systematically over the past two decades and they are by now widely used in a number of diverse applications. However, GP kernel design and the associated hyper-parameter optimization are still hard and to a large extend open problems. In this paper, we consider the task of GP regression for time series modeling and analysis. The underlying stationary kernel can be approximated arbitrarily close by a new proposed grid spectral mixture (GSM) kernel, which turns out to be a linear combination of low-rank sub-kernels. In the case where a large number of the sub-kernels are used, either the Nystr\"{o}m or the random Fourier feature approximations can be adopted to deal efficiently with the computational demands. The unknown GP hyper-parameters consist of the non-negative weights of all sub-kernels as well as the noise variance; their estimation is performed via the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation framework. Two efficient numerical optimization methods for solving the unknown hyper-parameters are derived, including a sequential majorization-minimization (MM) method and a non-linearly constrained alternating direction of multiplier method (ADMM). The MM matches perfectly with the proven low-rank property of the proposed GSM sub-kernels and turns out to be a part of efficiency, stable, and efficient solver, while the ADMM has the potential to generate better local minimum in terms of the test MSE. Experimental results, based on various classic time series data sets, corroborate that the proposed GSM kernel-based GP regression model outperforms several salient competitors of similar kind in terms of prediction mean-squared-error and numerical stability.

Research has provided evidence that associative classification produces more accurate results compared to other classification models. The Classification Based on Association (CBA) is one of the famous Associative Classification algorithms that generates accurate classifiers. However, current association classification algorithms reside external to databases, which reduces the flexibility of enterprise analytics systems. This paper implements the CBA in Oracle database using two variant models: hardcoding the CBA in Oracle Data Mining (ODM) package and Integrating Oracle Apriori model with the Oracle Decision tree model. We compared the proposed model performance with Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Random Forests, and Decision Tree over 18 datasets from UCI. Results showed that our models outperformed the original CBA model with 1 percent and is competitive to chosen classification models over benchmark datasets.

In this paper, we will provide an introduction to the derivative-free optimization algorithms which can be potentially applied to train deep learning models. Existing deep learning model training is mostly based on the back propagation algorithm, which updates the model variables layers by layers with the gradient descent algorithm or its variants. However, the objective functions of deep learning models to be optimized are usually non-convex and the gradient descent algorithms based on the first-order derivative can get stuck into the local optima very easily. To resolve such a problem, various local or global optimization algorithms have been proposed, which can help improve the training of deep learning models greatly. The representative examples include the Bayesian methods, Shubert-Piyavskii algorithm, Direct, LIPO, MCS, GA, SCE, DE, PSO, ES, CMA-ES, hill climbing and simulated annealing, etc. One part of these algorithms will be introduced in this paper (including the Bayesian method and Lipschitzian approaches, e.g., Shubert-Piyavskii algorithm, Direct, LIPO and MCS), and the remaining algorithms (including the population based optimization algorithms, e.g., GA, SCE, DE, PSO, ES and CMA-ES, and random search algorithms, e.g., hill climbing and simulated annealing) will be introduced in the follow-up paper [18] in detail.

Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a prominent knowledge representation language with roots in logic programming and non-monotonic reasoning. Biennial ASP competitions are organized in order to furnish challenging benchmark collections and assess the advancement of the state of the art in ASP solving. In this paper, we report on the design and results of the Seventh ASP Competition, jointly organized by the University of Calabria (Italy), the University of Genova (Italy), and the University of Potsdam (Germany), in affiliation with the 14th International Conference on Logic Programming and Non-Monotonic Reasoning (LPNMR 2017). (Under consideration for acceptance in TPLP).

Decision trees are flexible models that are well suited for many statistical regression problems. In a Bayesian framework for regression trees, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms are required to generate samples of tree models according to their posterior probabilities. The critical component of such an MCMC algorithm is to construct good Metropolis-Hastings steps for updating the tree topology. However, such algorithms frequently suffering from local mode stickiness and poor mixing. As a result, the algorithms are slow to converge. Hitherto, authors have primarily used discrete-time birth/death mechanisms for Bayesian (sums of) regression tree models to explore the model space. These algorithms are efficient only if the acceptance rate is high which is not always the case. Here we overcome this issue by developing a new search algorithm which is based on a continuous-time birth-death Markov process. This search algorithm explores the model space by jumping between parameter spaces corresponding to different tree structures. In the proposed algorithm, the moves between models are always accepted which can dramatically improve the convergence and mixing properties of the MCMC algorithm. We provide theoretical support of the algorithm for Bayesian regression tree models and demonstrate its performance.

In many cases an intelligent agent may want to learn how to mimic a single observed demonstrated trajectory. In this work we consider how to perform such procedural learning from observation, which could help to enable agents to better use the enormous set of video data on observation sequences. Our approach exploits the properties of this setting to incrementally build an open loop action plan that can yield the desired subsequence, and can be used in both Markov and partially observable Markov domains. In addition, procedures commonly involve repeated extended temporal action subsequences. Our method optimistically explores actions to leverage potential repeated structure in the procedure. In comparing to some state-of-the-art approaches we find that our explicit procedural learning from observation method is about 100 times faster than policy-gradient based approaches that learn a stochastic policy and is faster than model based approaches as well. We also find that performing optimistic action selection yields substantial speed ups when latent dynamical structure is present.

In many applications, observed data are influenced by some combination of latent causes. For example, suppose sensors are placed inside a building to record responses such as temperature, humidity, power consumption and noise levels. These random, observed responses are typically affected by many unobserved, latent factors (or features) within the building such as the number of individuals, the turning on and off of electrical devices, power surges, etc. These latent factors are usually present for a contiguous period of time before disappearing; further, multiple factors could be present at a time. This paper develops new probabilistic methodology and inference methods for random object generation influenced by latent features exhibiting temporal persistence. Every datum is associated with subsets of a potentially infinite number of hidden, persistent features that account for temporal dynamics in an observation. The ensuing class of dynamic models constructed by adapting the Indian Buffet Process --- a probability measure on the space of random, unbounded binary matrices --- finds use in a variety of applications arising in operations, signal processing, biomedicine, marketing, image analysis, etc. Illustrations using synthetic and real data are provided.