Sampling the parameters of high-dimensional Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) is a challenging problem with important applications in many fields of applied statistics. In this work a recently proposed type of non-reversible rejection-free Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, the Bouncy Particle Sampler (BPS), is brought to bear to this problem. BPS has demonstrated its favorable computational efficiency compared with state-of-the-art MCMC algorithms, however to date applications to real-data scenario were scarce. An important aspect of the practical implementation of BPS is the simulation of event times. Default implementations use conservative thinning bounds. Such bounds can slow down the algorithm and limit the computational performance. Our paper develops an algorithm with an exact analytical solution to the random event times in the context of CTMCs. Our local version of BPS algorithm takes advantage of the sparse structure in the target factor graph and we also provide a framework for assessing the computational complexity of local BPS algorithms.

Speech-acts can have literal meaning as well as pragmatic meaning, but these both involve consequences typically intended by a speaker. Speech-acts can also have unintentional meaning, in which what is conveyed goes above and beyond what was intended. Here, we present a Bayesian analysis of how, to a listener, the meaning of an utterance can significantly differ from a speaker's intended meaning. Our model emphasizes how comprehending the intentional and unintentional meaning of speech-acts requires listeners to engage in sophisticated model-based perspective-taking and reasoning about the history of the state of the world, each other's actions, and each other's observations. To test our model, we have human participants make judgments about vignettes where speakers make utterances that could be interpreted as intentional insults or unintentional faux pas. In elucidating the mechanics of speech-acts with unintentional meanings, our account provides insight into how communication both functions and malfunctions.

Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is a popular topic modeling technique for discovery of hidden semantic architecture of text datasets, and plays a fundamental role in many machine learning applications. However, like many other machine learning algorithms, the process of training a LDA model may leak the sensitive information of the training datasets and bring significant privacy risks. To mitigate the privacy issues in LDA, we focus on studying privacy-preserving algorithms of LDA model training in this paper. In particular, we first develop a privacy monitoring algorithm to investigate the privacy guarantee obtained from the inherent randomness of the Collapsed Gibbs Sampling (CGS) process in a typical LDA training algorithm on centralized curated datasets. Then, we further propose a locally private LDA training algorithm on crowdsourced data to provide local differential privacy for individual data contributors. The experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.

Data imbalance remains one of the most widespread problems affecting contemporary machine learning. The negative effect data imbalance can have on the traditional learning algorithms is most severe in combination with other dataset difficulty factors, such as small disjuncts, presence of outliers and insufficient number of training observations. Said difficulty factors can also limit the applicability of some of the methods of dealing with data imbalance, in particular the neighborhood-based oversampling algorithms based on SMOTE. Radial-Based Oversampling (RBO) was previously proposed to mitigate some of the limitations of the neighborhood-based methods. In this paper we examine the possibility of utilizing the concept of mutual class potential, used to guide the oversampling process in RBO, in the undersampling procedure. Conducted computational complexity analysis indicates a significantly reduced time complexity of the proposed Radial-Based Undersampling algorithm, and the results of the performed experimental study indicate its usefulness, especially on difficult datasets.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) is the problem of finding a reward function that generates a given optimal policy for a given Markov Decision Process. This paper looks at an algorithmic-independent geometric analysis of the IRL problem with finite states and actions. A L1-regularized Support Vector Machine formulation of the IRL problem motivated by the geometric analysis is then proposed with the basic objective of the inverse reinforcement problem in mind: to find a reward function that generates a specified optimal policy. The paper further analyzes the proposed formulation of inverse reinforcement learning with $n$ states and $k$ actions, and shows a sample complexity of $O(n^2 \log (nk))$ for recovering a reward function that generates a policy that satisfies Bellman's optimality condition with respect to the true transition probabilities.

Structured prediction can be thought of as a simultaneous prediction of multiple labels. This is often done by maximizing a score function on the space of labels, which decomposes as a sum of pairwise and unary potentials. The above is naturally modeled with a graph, where edges and vertices are related to pairwise and unary potentials, respectively. We consider the generative process proposed by Globerson et al. and apply it to general connected graphs. We analyze the structural conditions of the graph that allow for the exact recovery of the labels. Our results show that exact recovery is possible and achievable in polynomial time for a large class of graphs. In particular, we show that graphs that are bad expanders can be exactly recovered by adding small edge perturbations coming from the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi model. Finally, as a byproduct of our analysis, we provide an extension of Cheeger's inequality.

There is a high demand for high-quality Non-Player Characters (NPCs) in video games. Hand-crafting their behavior is a labor intensive and error prone engineering process with limited controls exposed to the game designers. We propose to create such NPC behaviors interactively by training an agent in the target environment using imitation learning with a human in the loop. While traditional behavior cloning may fall short of achieving the desired performance, we show that interactivity can substantially improve it with a modest amount of human efforts. The model we train is a multi-resolution ensemble of Markov models, which can be used as is or can be further "compressed" into a more compact model for inference on consumer devices. We illustrate our approach on an example in OpenAI Gym, where a human can help to quickly train an agent with only a handful of interactive demonstrations. We also outline our experiments with NPC training for a first-person shooter game currently in development.

Depression is one of the most common mental health disorders, and a large number of depression people commit suicide each year. Potential depression sufferers do not consult psychological doctors because they feel ashamed or are unaware of any depression, which may result in severe delay of diagnosis and treatment. In the meantime, evidence shows that social media data provides valuable clues about physical and mental health conditions. In this paper, we argue that it is feasible to identify depression at an early stage by mining online social behaviours. Our approach, which is innovative to the practice of depression detection, does not rely on the extraction of numerous or complicated features to achieve accurate depression detection. Instead, we propose a novel classifier, namely, Inverse Boosting Pruning Trees (IBPT), which demonstrates a strong classification ability on a publicly accessible dataset with 7862 Twitter users. To comprehensively evaluate the classification capability of the IBPT, we use three real datasets from the UCI machine learning repository and the IBPT still obtains the best classification results against several state of the arts techniques. The results manifest that our proposed framework is promising for identifying social networks' users with depression.

A membership inference attack (MIA) against a machine learning model enables an attacker to determine whether a given data record was part of the model's training dataset or not. Such attacks have been shown to be practical both in centralized and federated settings, and pose a threat in many privacy-sensitive domains such as medicine or law enforcement. In the literature, the effectiveness of these attacks is invariably reported using metrics computed across the whole population. In this paper, we take a closer look at the attack's performance across different subgroups present in the data distributions. We introduce a framework that enables us to efficiently analyze the vulnerability of machine learning models to MIA. We discover that even if the accuracy of MIA looks no better than random guessing over the whole population, subgroups are subject to disparate vulnerability, i.e., certain subgroups can be significantly more vulnerable than others. We provide a theoretical definition for MIA vulnerability which we validate empirically both on synthetic and real data.

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying uncertainty, called predictive-matching Generative Parameter Sampler (GPS). This procedure considers an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) distribution, on the targeted parameter, which matches the corresponding predictive distribution to the observed data. This framework adopts a hierarchical modeling perspective such that each observation is modeled by an individual parameter. This individual parameterization permits the resulting inference to be computationally scalable and robust to outliers. Our approach is illustrated for linear models, Poisson processes, and deep neural networks for classification. The results show that the GPS is successful in providing uncertainty quantification as well as additional flexibility beyond what is allowed by classical statistical procedures under the postulated statistical models.