Learning Graphical Models
MAESTRO: Multi-Agent Environment Shaping through Task and Reward Optimization
Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) faces two major design bottlenecks: crafting dense reward functions and constructing curricula that avoid local optima in high-dimensional, non-stationary environments. Existing approaches rely on fixed heuristics or use Large Language Models (LLMs) directly in the control loop, which is costly and unsuitable for real-time systems. We propose MAESTRO (Multi-Agent Environment Shaping through Task and Reward Optimization), a framework that moves the LLM outside the execution loop and uses it as an offline training architect. MAESTRO introduces two generative components: (i) a semantic curriculum generator that creates diverse, performance-driven traffic scenarios, and (ii) an automated reward synthesizer that produces executable Python reward functions adapted to evolving curriculum difficulty. These components guide a standard MARL backbone (MADDPG) without increasing inference cost at deployment. We evaluate MAESTRO on large-scale traffic signal control (Hangzhou, 16 intersections) and conduct controlled ablations. Results show that combining LLM-generated curricula with LLM-generated reward shaping yields improved performance and stability. Across four seeds, the full system achieves +4.0% higher mean return (163.26 vs. 156.93) and 2.2% better risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe 1.53 vs. 0.70) over a strong curriculum baseline. These findings highlight LLMs as effective high-level designers for cooperative MARL training.
Benchmarking World-Model Learning
Warrier, Archana, Nguyen, Dat, Naim, Michelangelo, Jain, Moksh, Liang, Yichao, Schroeder, Karen, Yang, Cambridge, Tenenbaum, Joshua B., Vollmer, Sebastian, Ellis, Kevin, Tavares, Zenna
Model-learning agents should gather information to learn world models that support many downstream tasks and inferences, such as predicting unobserved states, estimating near- and far-term consequences of actions, planning action sequences, and detecting changes in dynamics. Current methods for learning and evaluating world models diverge from this goal: training and evaluation are anchored to next-frame prediction, and success is scored by reward maximization in the same environment. We propose WorldTest, a protocol to evaluate model-learning agents that separates reward-free interaction from a scored test phase in a different but related environment. WorldTest is open-ended $\unicode{x2014}$ models should support many different tasks unknown ahead of time $\unicode{x2014}$ and agnostic to model representation, allowing comparison across approaches. We instantiated WorldTest with AutumnBench, a suite of 43 interactive grid-world environments and 129 tasks across three families: masked-frame prediction, planning, and predicting changes to the causal dynamics. We compared 517 human participants and three frontier models on AutumnBench. We found that humans outperform the models, and scaling compute improves performance only in some environments but not others. WorldTest provides a novel template $\unicode{x2014}$ reward-free exploration, derived tests, and behavior-based scoring $\unicode{x2014}$ to evaluate what agents learn about environment dynamics, and AutumnBench exposes significant headroom in world-model learning.
Text-Trained LLMs Can Zero-Shot Extrapolate PDE Dynamics, Revealing a Three-Stage In-Context Learning Mechanism
Bao, Jiajun, Boullé, Nicolas, Liu, Toni J. B., Sarfati, Raphaël, Earls, Christopher J.
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated emergent in-context learning (ICL) capabilities across a range of tasks, including zero-shot time-series forecasting. We show that text-trained foundation models can accurately extrapolate spatiotemporal dynamics from discretized partial differential equation (PDE) solutions without fine-tuning or natural language prompting. Predictive accuracy improves with longer temporal contexts but degrades at finer spatial discretizations. In multi-step rollouts, where the model recursively predicts future spatial states over multiple time steps, errors grow algebraically with the time horizon, reminiscent of global error accumulation in classical finite-difference solvers. We interpret these trends as in-context neural scaling laws, where prediction quality varies predictably with both context length and output length. To better understand how LLMs are able to internally process PDE solutions so as to accurately roll them out, we analyze token-level output distributions and uncover a consistent three-stage ICL progression: beginning with syntactic pattern imitation, transitioning through an exploratory high-entropy phase, and culminating in confident, numerically grounded predictions.
ShoppingBench: A Real-World Intent-Grounded Shopping Benchmark for LLM-based Agents
Wang, Jiangyuan, Xiao, Kejun, Sun, Qi, Zhao, Huaipeng, Luo, Tao, Zhang, Jian Dong, Zeng, Xiaoyi
Existing benchmarks in e-commerce primarily focus on basic user intents, such as finding or purchasing products. However, real-world users often pursue more complex goals, such as applying vouchers, managing budgets, and finding multi-products seller. To bridge this gap, we propose ShoppingBench, a novel end-to-end shopping benchmark designed to encompass increasingly challenging levels of grounded intent. Specifically, we propose a scalable framework to simulate user instructions based on various intents derived from sampled real-world products. To facilitate consistent and reliable evaluations, we provide a large-scale shopping sandbox that serves as an interactive simulated environment, incorporating over 2.5 million real-world products. Experimental results demonstrate that even state-of-the-art language agents (such as GPT-4.1) achieve absolute success rates under 50% on our benchmark tasks, highlighting the significant challenges posed by our ShoppingBench. In addition, we propose a trajectory distillation strategy and leverage supervised fine-tuning, along with reinforcement learning on synthetic trajectories, to distill the capabilities of a large language agent into a smaller one. As a result, our trained agent achieves competitive performance compared to GPT-4.1.
Structured quantum learning via em algorithm for Boltzmann machines
Kimura, Takeshi, Kato, Kohtaro, Hayashi, Masahito
Quantum Boltzmann machines (QBMs) are generative models with potential advantages in quantum machine learning, yet their training is fundamentally limited by the barren plateau problem, where gradients vanish exponentially with system size. We introduce a quantum version of the em algorithm, an information-geometric generalization of the classical Expectation-Maximization method, which circumvents gradient-based optimization on non-convex functions. Implemented on a semi-quantum restricted Boltzmann machine (sqRBM) -- a hybrid architecture with quantum effects confined to the hidden layer -- our method achieves stable learning and outperforms gradient descent on multiple benchmark datasets. These results establish a structured and scalable alternative to gradient-based training in QML, offering a pathway to mitigate barren plateaus and enhance quantum generative modeling.
Global Convergence for Average Reward Constrained MDPs with Primal-Dual Actor Critic Algorithm
Xu, Yang, Ganesh, Swetha, Mondal, Washim Uddin, Bai, Qinbo, Aggarwal, Vaneet
This paper investigates infinite-horizon average reward Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) with general parametrization. We propose a Primal-Dual Natural Actor-Critic algorithm that adeptly manages constraints while ensuring a high convergence rate. In particular, our algorithm achieves global convergence and constraint violation rates of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{T})$ over a horizon of length $T$ when the mixing time, $τ_{\mathrm{mix}}$, is known to the learner. In absence of knowledge of $τ_{\mathrm{mix}}$, the achievable rates change to $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/T^{0.5-ε})$ provided that $T \geq \tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(τ_{\mathrm{mix}}^{2/ε}\right)$. Our results match the theoretical lower bound for Markov Decision Processes and establish a new benchmark in the theoretical exploration of average reward CMDPs.
LLM Collaboration With Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Liu, Shuo, Chen, Tianle, Liang, Zeyu, Lyu, Xueguang, Amato, Christopher
A large amount of work has been done in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) for modeling and solving problems with multiple interacting agents. However, most LLMs are pretrained independently and not specifically optimized for coordination. For example, existing LLM fine-tuning frameworks rely on individual rewards, which require complex reward designs for each agent to encourage collaboration. To address this challenge, we model LLM collaboration as a cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) problem. We develop a multi-agent, multi-turn algorithm, Multi-Agent Group Relative Policy Optimization (MAGRPO), to solve it, building on current RL approaches for LLMs as well as MARL techniques. Our experiments on LLM writing and coding collaboration demonstrate that fine-tuning multiple LLMs with MAGRPO enables agents to generate high-quality responses efficiently through effective cooperation. Our approach opens the door to using MARL methods for LLM collaboration and highlights the associated challenges.
Heuristics for Combinatorial Optimization via Value-based Reinforcement Learning: A Unified Framework and Analysis
Davidovich, Orit, Shtern, Shimrit, Wasserkrug, Segev, Megiddo, Nimrod
Since the 1990s, considerable empirical work has been carried out to train statistical models, such as neural networks (NNs), as learned heuristics for combinatorial optimization (CO) problems. When successful, such an approach eliminates the need for experts to design heuristics per problem type. Due to their structure, many hard CO problems are amenable to treatment through reinforcement learning (RL). Indeed, we find a wealth of literature training NNs using value-based, policy gradient, or actor-critic approaches, with promising results, both in terms of empirical optimality gaps and inference runtimes. Nevertheless, there has been a paucity of theoretical work undergirding the use of RL for CO problems. To this end, we introduce a unified framework to model CO problems through Markov decision processes (MDPs) and solve them using RL techniques. We provide easy-to-test assumptions under which CO problems can be formulated as equivalent undiscounted MDPs that provide optimal solutions to the original CO problems. Moreover, we establish conditions under which value-based RL techniques converge to approximate solutions of the CO problem with a guarantee on the associated optimality gap. Our convergence analysis provides: (1) a sufficient rate of increase in batch size and projected gradient descent steps at each RL iteration; (2) the resulting optimality gap in terms of problem parameters and targeted RL accuracy; and (3) the importance of a choice of state-space embedding. Together, our analysis illuminates the success (and limitations) of the celebrated deep Q-learning algorithm in this problem context.
Bayesian Semiparametric Mixture Cure (Frailty) Models
Kızılaslan, Fatih, Vitelli, Valeria
In recent years, mixture cure models have gained increasing popularity in survival analysis as an alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model, particularly in settings where a subset of patients is considered cured. The proportional hazards mixture cure model is especially advantageous when the presence of a cured fraction can be reasonably assumed, providing a more accurate representation of long-term survival dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian framework for the semiparametric mixture cure model, which accommodates both the inclusion and exclusion of a frailty component, allowing for greater flexibility in capturing unobserved heterogeneity among patients. Samples from the posterior distribution are obtained using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, leveraging a hierarchical structure inspired by Bayesian Lasso. Comprehensive simulation studies are conducted across diverse scenarios to evaluate the performance and robustness of the proposed models. Bayesian model comparison and assessment are performed using various criteria. Finally, the proposed approaches are applied to two well-known datasets in the cure model literature: the E1690 melanoma trial and a colon cancer clinical trial.
Provable Diffusion Posterior Sampling for Bayesian Inversion
Chang, Jinyuan, Duan, Chenguang, Jiao, Yuling, Li, Ruoxuan, Yang, Jerry Zhijian, Yuan, Cheng
This paper proposes a novel diffusion-based posterior sampling method within a plug-and-play (PnP) framework. Our approach constructs a probability transport from an easy-to-sample terminal distribution to the target posterior, using a warm-start strategy to initialize the particles. To approximate the posterior score, we develop a Monte Carlo estimator in which particles are generated using Langevin dynamics, avoiding the heuristic approximations commonly used in prior work. The score governing the Langevin dynamics is learned from data, enabling the model to capture rich structural features of the underlying prior distribution. On the theoretical side, we provide non-asymptotic error bounds, showing that the method converges even for complex, multi-modal target posterior distributions. These bounds explicitly quantify the errors arising from posterior score estimation, the warm-start initialization, and the posterior sampling procedure. Our analysis further clarifies how the prior score-matching error and the condition number of the Bayesian inverse problem influence overall performance. Finally, we present numerical experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method across a range of inverse problems.