Search and tracking is the problem of locating a moving target and following it to its destination. In this work, we consider a scenario in which the target moves across a large geographical area by following a road network and the search is performed by a team of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). We formulate search and tracking as a combinatorial optimization problem and prove that the objective function is submodular. We exploit this property to devise a greedy algorithm. Although this algorithm does not offer strong theoretical guarantees because of the presence of temporal constraints that limit the feasibility of the solutions, it presents remarkably good performance, especially when several UAVs are available for the mission. As the greedy algorithm suffers when resources are scarce, we investigate two alternative optimization techniques: Constraint Programming (CP) and AI planning. Both approaches struggle to cope with large problems, and so we strengthen them by leveraging the greedy algorithm. We use the greedy solution to warm start the CP model and to devise a domain-dependent heuristic for planning. Our extensive experimental evaluation studies the scalability of the different techniques and identifies the conditions under which one approach becomes preferable to the others.

Variational Bayes (VB) has become a versatile tool for Bayesian inference in statistics. Nonetheless, the development of the existing VB algorithms is so far generally restricted to the case where the variational parameter space is Euclidean, which hinders the potential broad application of VB methods. This paper extends the scope of VB to the case where the variational parameter space is a Riemannian manifold. We develop, for the first time in the literature, an efficient manifold-based VB algorithm that exploits both the geometric structure of the constraint parameter space and the information geometry of the manifold of VB approximating probability distributions. Our algorithm is provably convergent and achieves a convergence rate of order $\mathcal O(1/\sqrt{T})$ and $\mathcal O(1/T^{2-2\epsilon})$ for a non-convex evidence lower bound function and a strongly retraction-convex evidence lower bound function, respectively. We develop in particular two manifold VB algorithms, Manifold Gaussian VB and Manifold Neural Net VB, and demonstrate through numerical experiments that the proposed algorithms are stable, less sensitive to initialization and compares favourably to existing VB methods.

Jon a ˇ s Kulh anek 1, Erik Derner 2, Tim de Bruin 1, and Robert Babu ˇ ska 3 Abstract -- Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has been successfully applied to a variety of game-like environments. However, the application of deep RL to visual navigation with realistic environments is a challenging task. We propose a novel learning architecture capable of navigating an agent, e.g. a mobile robot, to a target given by an image. T o achieve this, we have extended the batched A2C algorithm with auxiliary tasks designed to improve visual navigation performance. We propose three additional auxiliary tasks: predicting the segmentation of the observation image and of the target image and predicting the depth-map. These tasks enable the use of supervised learning to pre-train a large part of the network and to reduce the number of training steps substantially. The training performance has been further improved by increasing the environment complexity gradually over time. An efficient neural network structure is proposed, which is capable of learning for multiple targets in multiple environments. Our method navigates in continuous state spaces and on the AI2-THOR environment simulator outperforms state-of-the-art goal-oriented visual navigation methods from the literature. I NTRODUCTION Visual navigation is the problem of navigating an agent, e.g. a mobile robot, in an environment using camera input only. The agent is given a target image (an image it will see from the target position), and its goal is to move from its current position to the target by applying a sequence of actions, based on the camera observations only. We focus on the case when the environment is initially unknown, i.e., no explicit map is available.

Tractable yet expressive density estimators are a key building block of probabilistic machine learning. While sum-product networks (SPNs) offer attractive inference capabilities, obtaining structures large enough to fit complex, high-dimensional data has proven challenging. In this paper, we present random sum-product forests (RSPFs), an ensemble approach for mixing multiple randomly generated SPNs. We also introduce residual links, which reference specialized substructures of other component SPNs in order to leverage the context-specific knowledge encoded within them. Our empirical evidence demonstrates that RSPFs provide better performance than their individual components. Adding residual links improves the models further, allowing the resulting ResSPNs to be competitive with commonly used structure learning methods.

Health management of complex dynamic systems has evolved from simple automated alarms into a subfield of artificial intelligence with techniques for analyzing off-nominal conditions and generating responses. This evolution took place largely apart from the development of automated system control, planning, and scheduling (generally referred to in this work as decision making). While there have been efforts to establish an information exchange between system health management and decision making, successful practical implementations of integrated architectures remain limited. This article proposes that rather than being treated as connected yet distinct entities, system health management and decision making should be unified in their formulations. Enabled by advances in modeling and algorithms, we believe that a unified approach will increase systems' resilience to faults and improve their effectiveness. We overview the prevalent system health management methodology, illustrate its limitations through numerical examples, and describe a proposed unified approach. We then show how typical system health management concepts are accommodated in the proposed approach without loss of functionality or generality. A computational complexity analysis of the unified approach is also provided.

Concretely, that the proposed algorithm does in fact recover the correct super-paramagnetic cluster configurations that are near the entropy maxima. Previous cases studies include data clustering of stocks [15] and gene data in [4], temporal states of financial markets [8], and state-detection for adaptive machine learning in trading [5]. There is an endless variety of potential use-cases for this type of fast big-data clustering technology. Building on prior work we propose and demonstrate an alternative to fast Super-Paramagnetic Clustering (f-SPC) [15] using a modern and streamlined implementation of the "Merging Algorithm" first suggested by Gi-ada [4], one that can recover the same cluster configurations for a variety of test-cases, but with significantly reduced compute times. We again use the Noh Ansatz [11] and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation approach introduced by Giada and Marsili [4]. We call the new algorithm Agglomerative Super-Paramagnetic Clustering (ASPC) and it has the benefit of being less computationally expensive than the PGAs implemented in [5, 6, 15].

As AI systems develop in complexity it is becoming increasingly hard to ensure non-discrimination on the basis of protected attributes such as gender, age, and race. Many recent methods have been developed for dealing with this issue as long as the protected attribute is explicitly available for the algorithm. We address the setting where this is not the case (with either no explicit protected attribute, or a large set of them). Instead, we assume the existence of a fair domain expert capable of generating an extension to the labeled dataset - a small set of example pairs, each having a different value on a subset of protected variables, but judged to warrant a similar model response. We define a performance metric - paired consistency. Paired consistency measures how close the output (assigned by a classifier or a regressor) is on these carefully selected pairs of examples for which fairness dictates identical decisions. In some cases consistency can be embedded within the loss function during optimization and serve as a fairness regularizer, and in others it is a tool for fair model selection. We demonstrate our method using the well studied Income Census dataset.

Smart cities around the world have begun monitoring parking areas in order to estimate available parking spots and help drivers looking for parking. The current results are promising, indeed. However, existing approaches are limited by the high cost of sensors that need to be installed throughout the city in order to achieve an accurate estimation. This work investigates the extension of estimating parking information from areas equipped with sensors to areas where they are missing. To this end, the similarity between city neighborhoods is determined based on background data, i.e., from geographic information systems. Using the derived similarity values, we analyze the adaptation of occupancy rates from monitored- to unmonitored parking areas.

-- Compute and memory constraints have historically prevented traffic simulation software users from fully utilizing the predictive models underlying them. When calibrating car-following models, particularly, accommodations have included 1) using sensitivity analysis to limit the number of parameters to be calibrated, and 2) identifying only one set of parameter values using data collected from multiple car-following instances across multiple drivers. Shortcuts are further motivated by insufficient data set sizes, for which a driver may have too few instances to fully account for the variation in their driving behavior . In this paper, we demonstrate that recent technological advances can enable transportation researchers and engineers to overcome these constraints and produce calibration results that 1) outperform industry standard approaches, and 2) allow for a unique set of parameters to be estimated for each driver in a data set, even given a small amount of data. We propose a novel calibration procedure for car-following models based on Bayesian machine learning and probabilistic programming, and apply it to real-world data from a naturalistic driving study. We also discuss how this combination of mathematical and software tools can offer additional benefits such as more informative model validation and the incorporation of true-to-data uncertainty into simulation traces. Traffic simulation software packages are widely used in transportation engineering to estimate the impacts of potential changes to a roadway network and forecast system performance under future scenarios. These packages are underpinned by math-and physics-based models, which are designed to describe behavior at an aggregate (macroscopic) level or at the level of individual drivers (microscopic).

Bayesian Network Based Label Correlation Analysis For Multi-label Classifier Chain Ran Wang 1,2, Suhe Ye 1,2, Ke Li 3 and Sam Kwong 4 1 College of Mathematics and Statistics, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China. 2 Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Advanced Machine Learning and Applications, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China. Abstract: Classifier chain (CC) is a multi-label learning approach that constructs a sequence of binary classifiers according to a label order. Each classifier in the sequence is responsible for predicting the relevance of one label. When training the classifier for a label, proceeding labels will be taken as extended features. If the extended features are highly correlated to the label, the performance will be improved, otherwise, the performance will not be influenced or even degraded. How to discover label correlation and determine the label order is critical for CC approach. This paper employs Bayesian network (BN) to model the label correlations and proposes a new BN-based CC method (BNCC). First, conditional entropy is used to describe the dependency relations among labels. Then, a BN is built up by taking nodes as labels and weights of edges as their dependency relations. A new scoring function is proposed to evaluate a BN structure, and a heuristic algorithm is introduced to optimize the BN. At last, by applying topological sorting on the nodes of the optimized BN, the label order for constructing CC model is derived. Experimental comparisons demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.