We consider a high-dimensional mean estimation problem over a binary hidden Markov model, which illuminates the interplay between memory in data, sample size, dimension, and signal strength in statistical inference. In this model, an estimator observes $n$ samples of a $d$-dimensional parameter vector $\theta_{*}\in\mathbb{R}^{d}$, multiplied by a random sign $ S_i $ ($1\le i\le n$), and corrupted by isotropic standard Gaussian noise. The sequence of signs $\{S_{i}\}_{i\in[n]}\in\{-1,1\}^{n}$ is drawn from a stationary homogeneous Markov chain with flip probability $\delta\in[0,1/2]$. As $\delta$ varies, this model smoothly interpolates two well-studied models: the Gaussian Location Model for which $\delta=0$ and the Gaussian Mixture Model for which $\delta=1/2$. Assuming that the estimator knows $\delta$, we establish a nearly minimax optimal (up to logarithmic factors) estimation error rate, as a function of $\|\theta_{*}\|,\delta,d,n$. We then provide an upper bound to the case of estimating $\delta$, assuming a (possibly inaccurate) knowledge of $\theta_{*}$. The bound is proved to be tight when $\theta_{*}$ is an accurately known constant. These results are then combined to an algorithm which estimates $\theta_{*}$ with $\delta$ unknown a priori, and theoretical guarantees on its error are stated.

This work studies the problem of learning episodic Markov Decision Processes with known transition and bandit feedback. We develop the first algorithm with a ``best-of-both-worlds'' guarantee: it achieves O(log T) regret when the losses are stochastic, and simultaneously enjoys worst-case robustness with \tilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) regret even when the losses are adversarial, where T is the number of episodes. More generally, it achieves \tilde{O}(\sqrt{C}) regret in an intermediate setting where the losses are corrupted by a total amount of C. Our algorithm is based on the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader method from Zimin and Neu (2013), with a novel hybrid regularizer inspired by recent works of Zimmert et al. (2019a, 2019b) for the special case of multi-armed bandits. Crucially, our regularizer admits a non-diagonal Hessian with a highly complicated inverse. Analyzing such a regularizer and deriving a particular self-bounding regret guarantee is our key technical contribution and might be of independent interest.

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of interest, $y$, conditional on predictors, $x$. Bayesian prediction is well-calibrated when the model is true, but the predictive intervals may exhibit poor empirical coverage when the model is misspecified, under the so called ${\cal{M}}$-open perspective. In contrast, conformal inference provides finite sample frequentist guarantees on predictive confidence intervals without the requirement of model fidelity. Using'add-one-in' importance sampling, we show that conformal Bayesian predictive intervals are efficiently obtained from re-weighted posterior samples of model parameters. Our approach contrasts with existing conformal methods that require expensive refitting of models or data-splitting to achieve computational efficiency. We demonstrate the utility on a range of examples including extensions to partially exchangeable settings such as hierarchical models.

Bandits with knapsacks (BwK) is an influential model of sequential decision-making under uncertainty that incorporates resource consumption constraints. In each round, the decision-maker observes an outcome consisting of a reward and a vector of nonnegative resource consumptions, and the budget of each resource is decremented by its consumption. In this paper we introduce a natural generalization of the stochastic BwK problem that allows non-monotonic resource utilization. In each round, the decision-maker observes an outcome consisting of a reward and a vector of resource drifts that can be positive, negative or zero, and the budget of each resource is incremented by its drift. Our main result is a Markov decision process (MDP) policy that has constant regret against a linear programming (LP) relaxation when the decision-maker knows the true outcome distributions. We build upon this to develop a learning algorithm that has logarithmic regret against the same LP relaxation when the decision-maker does not know the true outcome distributions. We also present a reduction from BwK to our model that shows our regret bound matches existing results.

The study of Markov processes and broadcasting on trees has deep connections to a variety of areas including statistical physics, graphical models, phylogenetic reconstruction, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and community detection in random graphs. Notably, the celebrated Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm achieves Bayes-optimal performance for the reconstruction problem of predicting the value of the Markov process at the root of the tree from its values at the leaves.Recently, the analysis of low-degree polynomials has emerged as a valuable tool for predicting computational-to-statistical gaps. In this work, we investigate the performance of low-degree polynomials for the reconstruction problem on trees. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that there are simple tree models with $N$ leaves and bounded arity where (1) nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple polynomial time algorithm and with robustness to noise, but not with any polynomial of degree $N^{c}$ for $c > 0$ a constant depending only on the arity, and (2) when the tree is unknown and given multiple samples with correlated root assignments, nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple Statistical Query algorithm but not with any polynomial of degree $N^c$. These results clarify some of the limitations of low-degree polynomials vs. polynomial time algorithms for Bayesian estimation problems. They also complement recent work of Moitra, Mossel, and Sandon who studied the circuit complexity of Belief Propagation. As a consequence of our main result, we are able to prove a result of independent interest regarding the performance of RBF kernel ridge regression for learning to predict the root coloration: for some $c' > 0$ depending only on the arity, $\exp(N^{c'})$ many samples are needed for the kernel regression to obtain nontrivial correlation with the true regression function (BP). We pose related open questions about low-degree polynomials and the Kesten-Stigum threshold.

We propose new methods for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) that reliably support fast inference. We utilize maximum state space size as a more fine-grained measure for the BN's reasoning complexity than the standard treewidth measure, thereby accommodating the possibility that variables range over domains of different sizes. Our methods combine heuristic BN structure learning algorithms with the recently introduced MaxSAT-powered local improvement method (Peruvemba Ramaswamy and Szeider, AAAI'21). Our experiments show that our new learning methods produce BNs that support significantly faster exact probabilistic inference than BNs learned with treewidth bounds.

Motivated by decentralized approaches to machine learning, we propose a collaborative Bayesian learning algorithm taking the form of decentralized Langevin dynamics in a non-convex setting. Our analysis show that the initial KL-divergence between the Markov Chain and the target posterior distribution is exponentially decreasing while the error contributions to the overall KL-divergence from the additive noise is decreasing in polynomial time. We further show that the polynomial-term experiences speed-up with number of agents and provide sufficient conditions on the time-varying step-sizes to guarantee convergence to the desired distribution. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated on a wide variety of machine learning tasks. The empirical results show that the performance of individual agents with locally available data is on par with the centralized setting with considerable improvement in the convergence rate.

This paper considers the challenging tasks of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) under partial observability, where each agent only sees her own individual observations and actions that reveal incomplete information about the underlying state of system. This paper studies these tasks under the general model of multiplayer general-sum Partially Observable Markov Games (POMGs), which is significantly larger than the standard model of Imperfect Information Extensive-Form Games (IIEFGs). We identify a rich subclass of POMGs---weakly revealing POMGs---in which sample-efficient learning is tractable. In the self-play setting, we prove that a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to find approximate Nash equilibria, correlated equilibria, as well as coarse correlated equilibria of weakly revealing POMGs, in a polynomial number of samples when the number of agents is small. In the setting of playing against adversarial opponents, we show that a variant of our optimistic MLE algorithm is capable of achieving sublinear regret when being compared against the optimal maximin policies. To our best knowledge, this work provides the first line of sample-efficient results for learning POMGs.

Suppose an online platform wants to compare a treatment and control policy (e.g., two different matching algorithms in a ridesharing system, or two different inventory management algorithms in an online retail site). Standard experimental approaches to this problem are biased (due to temporal interference between the policies), and not sample efficient. We study optimal experimental design for this setting. We view testing the two policies as the problem of estimating the steady state difference in reward between two unknown Markov chains (i.e., policies). We assume estimation of the steady state reward for each chain proceeds via nonparametric maximum likelihood, and search for consistent (i.e., asymptotically unbiased) experimental designs that are efficient (i.e., asymptotically minimum variance). Characterizing such designs is equivalent to a Markov decision problem with a minimum variance objective; such problems generally do not admit tractable solutions. Remarkably, in our setting, using a novel application of classical martingale analysis of Markov chains via Poisson's equation, we characterize efficient designs via a succinct convex optimization problem. We use this characterization to propose a consistent, efficient online experimental design that adaptively samples the two Markov chains.

Pretrained language models have achieved state-of-the-art performance when adapted to a downstream NLP task. However, theoretical analysis of these models is scarce and challenging since the pretraining and downstream tasks can be very different. We propose an analysis framework that links the pretraining and downstream tasks with an underlying latent variable generative model of text -- the downstream classifier must recover a function of the posterior distribution over the latent variables. We analyze head tuning (learning a classifier on top of the frozen pretrained model) and prompt tuning in this setting. The generative model in our analysis is either a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) or an HMM augmented with a latent memory component, motivated by long-term dependencies in natural language. We show that 1) under certain non-degeneracy conditions on the HMM, simple classification heads can solve the downstream task, 2) prompt tuning obtains downstream guarantees with weaker non-degeneracy conditions, and 3) our recovery guarantees for the memory-augmented HMM are stronger than for the vanilla HMM because task-relevant information is easier to recover from the long-term memory. Experiments on synthetically generated data from HMMs back our theoretical findings.