Deep generative models are generally categorized into explicit models and implicit models. The former defines an explicit density form, whose normalizing constant is often unknown; while the latter, including generative adversarial networks (GANs), generates samples without explicitly defining a density function. In spite of substantial recent advances demonstrating the power of the two classes of generative models in many applications, both of them, when used alone, suffer from respective limitations and drawbacks. To mitigate these issues, we propose Stein Bridging, a novel joint training framework that connects an explicit density estimator and an implicit sample generator with Stein discrepancy. We show that the Stein Bridge induces new regularization schemes for both explicit and implicit models. Convergence analysis and extensive experiments demonstrate that the Stein Bridging i) improves the stability and sample quality of the GAN training, and ii) facilitates the density estimator to seek more modes in data and alleviate the mode-collapse issue. Additionally, we discuss several applications of Stein Bridging and useful tricks in practical implementation used in our experiments.

This paper attempts to answer a central question in unsupervised learning: what does it mean to "make sense" of a sensory sequence? In our formalization, making sense involves constructing a symbolic causal theory that explains the sensory sequence and satisfies a set of unity conditions. This model was inspired by Kant's discussion of the synthetic unity of apperception in the Critique of Pure Reason. On our account, making sense of sensory input is a type of program synthesis, but it is unsupervised program synthesis. Our second contribution is a computer implementation, the Apperception Engine, that was designed to satisfy the above requirements. Our system is able to produce interpretable human-readable causal theories from very small amounts of data, because of the strong inductive bias provided by the Kantian unity constraints. A causal theory produced by our system is able to predict future sensor readings, as well as retrodict earlier readings, and "impute" (fill in the blanks of) missing sensory readings, in any combination. We tested the engine in a diverse variety of domains, including cellular automata, rhythms and simple nursery tunes, multi-modal binding problems, occlusion tasks, and sequence induction IQ tests. In each domain, we test our engine's ability to predict future sensor values, retrodict earlier sensor values, and impute missing sensory data. The Apperception Engine performs well in all these domains, significantly out-performing neural net baselines. We note in particular that in the sequence induction IQ tasks, our system achieved human-level performance. This is notable because our system is not a bespoke system designed specifically to solve IQ tasks, but a general purpose apperception system that was designed to make sense of any sensory sequence.

I previously worked on designing some problem sets for a PhD class. One of the assignments dealt with a simple classification problem using data that I took from a kaggle challenge trying to predict fraudulent credit card transactions. The goal of the problem is to predict the probability that a specific credit card transaction is fraudulent. One unforeseen issue with the data was that the unconditional probability that a single credit card transaction is fraudulent is very small. This type of data is known as rare events data, and is common in many areas such as disease detection, conflict prediction and, of course, fraud detection.

Alejandro Pozas-Kerstjens, Miguel Ángel García-March, Przemysław R. Grzybowski We present an efficient method for unsupervised learning using Boltzmann machines. The method is rooted in the control of the spin-glass properties of the Ising model described by the Boltzmann machine's weights. This allows for very easy access to low-energy configurations. We apply RAPID, the combination of Restricting the Axons (RA) of the model and training via Pattern-InDuced correlations (PID), to learn the Bars and Stripes dataset of various sizes and the MNIST dataset. We show how, in these tasks, RAPID quickly outperforms standard techniques for unsupervised learning in generalization ability.

Bayes Theorem provides a principled way for calculating a conditional probability. It is a deceptively simple calculation, although it can be used to easily calculate the conditional probability of events where intuition often fails. Bayes Theorem also provides a way for thinking about the evaluation and selection of different models for a given dataset in applied machine learning. Maximizing the probability of a model fitting a dataset is more generally referred to as maximum a posteriori, or MAP for short, and provides a probabilistic framework for predictive modeling. In this post, you will discover Bayes Theorem for calculating conditional probabilities.

Experimentally, it has been observed that humans and animals often make decisions that do not maximize their expected utility, but rather choose outcomes randomly, with probability proportional to expected utility. Probability matching, as this strategy is called, is equivalent to maximum entropy reinforcement learning (MaxEnt RL). However, MaxEnt RL does not optimize expected utility. In this paper, we formally show that MaxEnt RL does optimally solve certain classes of control problems with variability in the reward function. In particular, we show (1) that MaxEnt RL can be used to solve a certain class of POMDPs, and (2) that MaxEnt RL is equivalent to a two-player game where an adversary chooses the reward function. These results suggest a deeper connection between MaxEnt RL, robust control, and POMDPs, and provide insight for the types of problems for which we might expect MaxEnt RL to produce effective solutions. Specifically, our results suggest that domains with uncertainty in the task goal may be especially well-suited for MaxEnt RL methods.

Information theoretic criteria (ITC) have been widely adopted in engineering and statistics for selecting, among an ordered set of candidate models, the one that better fits the observed sample data. The selected model minimizes a penalized likelihood metric, where the penalty is determined by the criterion adopted. While rules for choosing a penalty that guarantees a consistent estimate of the model order are known, theoretical tools for its design with finite samples have never been provided in a general setting. In this paper, we study model order selection for finite samples under a design perspective, focusing on the generalized information criterion (GIC), which embraces the most common ITC. The theory is general, and as case studies we consider: a) the problem of estimating the number of signals embedded in additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) by using multiple sensors; b) model selection for the general linear model (GLM), which includes e.g. the problem of estimating the number of sinusoids in AWGN. The analysis reveals a trade-off between the probabilities of overestimating and underestimating the order of the model. We then propose to design the GIC penalty to minimize underestimation while keeping the overestimation probability below a specified level. For the considered problems, this method leads to analytical derivation of the optimal penalty for a given sample size. A performance comparison between the penalty optimized GIC and common AIC and BIC is provided, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed design strategy.

We propose a novel fused Gromov-Wasserstein alignment method to jointly learn the Hawkes processes in different event spaces, and align their event types. Given two Hawkes processes, we use fused Gromov-Wasserstein discrepancy to measure their dissimilarity, which considers both the Wasserstein discrepancy based on their base intensities and the Gromov-Wasserstein discrepancy based on their infectivity matrices. Accordingly, the learned optimal transport reflects the correspondence between the event types of these two Hawkes processes. The Hawkes processes and their optimal transport are learned jointly via maximum likelihood estimation, with a fused Gromov-Wasserstein regularizer. Experimental results show that the proposed method works well on synthetic and real-world data.

Causal discovery can be a powerful tool for investigating causality when a system can be observed but is inaccessible to experiments in practice. Despite this, it is rarely used in any scientific or medical fields. One of the major hurdles preventing the field of causal discovery from having a larger impact is that it is difficult to determine when the output of a causal discovery method can be trusted in a real-world setting. Trust is especially critical when human health is on the line. In this paper, we report the results of a series of simulation studies investigating the performance of different resampling methods as indicators of confidence in discovered graph features. We found that subsampling and sampling with replacement both performed surprisingly well, suggesting that they can serve as grounds for confidence in graph features. We also found that the calibration of subsampling and sampling with replacement had different convergence properties, suggesting that one's choice of which to use should depend on the sample size.

W e derive streamlined mean field variational Bayes algorithms for fitting linear mixed models with crossed random effects. In the most general situation, where the dimensions of the crossed groups are arbitrarily large, streamlining is hindered by lack of sparseness in the underlying least squares system. Because of this fact we also consider a hierarchy of relaxations of the mean field product restriction. The least stringent product restriction delivers a high degree of inferential accuracy . However, this accuracy must be mitigated against its higher storage and computing demands. Faster sparse storage and computing alternatives are also provided, but come with the price of diminished inferential accuracy . This article provides full algorithmic details of three variational inference strategies, presents detailed empirical results on their pros and cons and, thus, guides the users on their choice of variational inference approach depending on the problem size and computing resources. Keywords: Mean field variational Bayes; item response theory; Rasch analysis; scalable statistical methodology; sparse least squares systems.