Deep learning has been shown to achieve impressive results in several tasks where a large amount of training data is available. However, deep learning solely focuses on the accuracy of the predictions, neglecting the reasoning process leading to a decision, which is a major issue in life-critical applications. Probabilistic logic reasoning allows to exploit both statistical regularities and specific domain expertise to perform reasoning under uncertainty, but its scalability and brittle integration with the layers processing the sensory data have greatly limited its applications. For these reasons, combining deep architectures and probabilistic logic reasoning is a fundamental goal towards the development of intelligent agents operating in complex environments. This paper presents Relational Neural Machines, a novel framework allowing to jointly train the parameters of the learners and of a First--Order Logic based reasoner. A Relational Neural Machine is able to recover both classical learning from supervised data in case of pure sub-symbolic learning, and Markov Logic Networks in case of pure symbolic reasoning, while allowing to jointly train and perform inference in hybrid learning tasks. Proper algorithmic solutions are devised to make learning and inference tractable in large-scale problems. The experiments show promising results in different relational tasks.

CausalNex is a Python library that allows data scientists and domain experts to co-develop models that go beyond correlation and consider causal relationships. 'CasualNex' provides a practical'what if' library which is deployed to test scenarios using Bayesian Networks (BNs). 'CasualNex' prepares practitioners to understand structural relationships from data and helps in the verification for accuracy of the relationships between different data sets. Apart from practitioners understanding the structural relationship from data, it also enables domain experts to fit conditional probability distributions and study the effect of potential interventions. 'CasualNex' helps to simplify the following steps: CausalNex is a Python package.

Technology development efforts in autonomy and cyber-defense have been evolving independently of each other, over the past decade. In this paper, we report our ongoing effort to integrate these two presently distinct areas into a single framework. To this end, we propose the two-player partially observable stochastic game formalism to capture both high-level autonomous mission planning under uncertainty and adversarial decision making subject to imperfect information. We show that synthesizing sub-optimal strategies for such games is possible under finite-memory assumptions for both the autonomous decision maker and the cyber-adversary. We then describe an experimental testbed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed framework.

The Markov assumption (MA) is fundamental to the empirical validity of reinforcement learning. In this paper, we propose a novel Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA in sequential decision making. The proposed test does not assume any parametric form on the joint distribution of the observed data and plays an important role for identifying the optimal policy in high-order Markov decision processes and partially observable MDPs. We apply our test to both synthetic datasets and a real data example from mobile health studies to illustrate its usefulness.

Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence of the mainshock earthquakes in a geographical region is assumed to follow an inhomogeneous spatial point process, and aftershock events are then modelled via a separate triggering kernel. Most previous studies of the ETAS model have relied on point estimates of the model parameters due to the complexity of the likelihood function, and the difficulty in estimating an appropriate mainshock distribution. In order to take estimation uncertainty into account, we instead propose a fully Bayesian formulation of the ETAS model which uses a nonparametric Dirichlet process mixture prior to capture the spatial mainshock process. Direct inference for the resulting model is problematic due to the strong correlation of the parameters for the mainshock and triggering processes, so we instead use an auxiliary latent variable routine to perform efficient inference.

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.

This paper presents a reinforcement learning approach to synthesizing task-driven control policies for robotic systems equipped with rich sensory modalities (e.g., vision or depth). Standard reinforcement learning algorithms typically produce policies that tightly couple control actions to the entirety of the system's state and rich sensor observations. As a consequence, the resulting policies can often be sensitive to changes in task-irrelevant portions of the state or observations (e.g., changing background colors). In contrast, the approach we present here learns to create a task-driven representation that is used to compute control actions. Formally, this is achieved by deriving a policy gradient-style algorithm that creates an information bottleneck between the states and the task-driven representation; this constrains actions to only depend on task-relevant information. We demonstrate our approach in a thorough set of simulation results on multiple examples including a grasping task that utilizes depth images and a ball-catching task that utilizes RGB images. Comparisons with a standard policy gradient approach demonstrate that the task-driven policies produced by our algorithm are often significantly more robust to sensor noise and task-irrelevant changes in the environment.

Agents trained in simulation may make errors when performing actions in the real world due to mismatches between training and execution environments. These mistakes can be dangerous and difficult for the agent to discover because the agent is unable to predict them a priori. In this work, we propose the use of oracle feedback to learn a predictive model of these blind spots in order to reduce costly errors in real-world applications. We focus on blind spots in reinforcement learning (RL) that occur due to incomplete state representation: when the agent lacks necessary features to represent the true state of the world, and thus cannot distinguish between numerous states. We formalize the problem of discovering blind spots in RL as a noisy supervised learning problem with class imbalance. Our system learns models for predicting blind spots within unseen regions of the state space by combining techniques for label aggregation, calibration, and supervised learning. These models take into consideration noise emerging from different forms of oracle feedback, including demonstrations and corrections. We evaluate our approach across two domains and demonstrate that it achieves higher predictive performance than baseline methods, and also that the learned model can be used to selectively query an oracle at execution time to prevent errors. We also empirically analyze the biases of various feedback types and how these biases influence the discovery of blind spots. Further, we include analyses of our approach that incorporate relaxed initial optimality assumptions. (Interestingly, relaxing the assumptions of an optimal oracle and an optimal simulator policy helped our models to perform better.) We also propose extensions to our method that are intended to improve performance when using corrections and demonstrations data.

Bayesian networks (BNs) have received increasing research attention that is not matched by adoption in practice and yet have potential to significantly benefit healthcare. Hitherto, research works have not investigated the types of medical conditions being modelled with BNs, nor whether any differences exist in how and why they are applied to different conditions. This research seeks to identify and quantify the range of medical conditions for which healthcare-related BN models have been proposed, and the differences in approach between the most common medical conditions to which they have been applied. We found that almost two-thirds of all healthcare BNs are focused on four conditions: cardiac, cancer, psychological and lung disorders. We believe that a lack of understanding regarding how BNs work and what they are capable of exists, and that it is only with greater understanding and promotion that we may ever realise the full potential of BNs to effect positive change in daily healthcare practice.

Linear two-timescale stochastic approximation (SA) scheme is an important class of algorithms which has become popular in reinforcement learning (RL), particularly for the policy evaluation problem. Recently, a number of works have been devoted to establishing the finite time analysis of the scheme, especially under the Markovian (non-i.i.d.) noise settings that are ubiquitous in practice. In this paper, we provide a finite-time analysis for linear two timescale SA. Our bounds show that there is no discrepancy in the convergence rate between Markovian and martingale noise, only the constants are affected by the mixing time of the Markov chain. With an appropriate step size schedule, the transient term in the expected error bound is o (1 /k c) and the steady-state term is O (1 /k), where c 1 and k is the iteration number. Furthermore, we present an asymptotic expansion of the expected error with a matching lower bound of Ω(1 /k). A simple numerical experiment is presented to support our theory. Keywords: stochastic approximation, reinforcement learning, GTD learning, Markovian noise 1. Introduction Since its introduction close to 70 years ago, the stochastic approximation (SA) scheme (Robbins and Monro, 1951) has been a powerful tool for root finding when only noisy samples are available. During the past two decades, considerable progresses in the practical and theoretical research of SA have been made, see (Bena ım, 1999; Kushner and Yin, 2003; Borkar, 2008) for an overview. Among others, linear SA schemes are popular in reinforcement learning (RL) as they lead to policy evaluation methods with linear function approximation, of particular importance is temporal difference (TD) learning (Sutton, 1988) for which finite time analysis has been reported in (Srikant and Ying, 2019; Lakshminarayanan and Szepesvari, 2018; Bhandari et al., 2018; Dalal et al., 2018a). The TD learning scheme based on classical (linear) SA is known to be inadequate for the off-policy learning paradigms in RL, where data samples are drawn from a behavior policy different from the policy being evaluated (Baird, 1995; Tsitsiklis and V an Roy, 1997). To circumvent this Authors listed in alphabetical order. These methods fall within the scope of linear two-timescale SA scheme introduced by Borkar (1997): θ k 1 θ k β k{null b 1( X k 1) null A 11(X k 1)θ k null A 12(X k 1) w k}, (1) w k 1 w k γ k{null b 2( X k 1) null A 21( X k 1)θ k null A 22(X k 1)w k}.