The use of machine learning to model motor learning mechanisms is still limited, while it could help to design novel interactive systems for movement learning or rehabilitation. This approach requires to account for the motor variability induced by motor learning mechanisms. This represents specific challenges concerning fast adaptability of the computational models, from small variations to more drastic changes, including new movement classes. We propose a short review on machine learning based movement models and their existing adaptation mechanisms. We discuss the current challenges for applying these models in motor learning support systems, delineating promising research directions at the intersection of machine learning and motor learning.

Reinforcement learning algorithms have been mostly developed and evaluated under the assumption that they will operate in a fully autonomous manner---they will take all actions. However, in safety critical applications, full autonomy faces a variety of technical, societal and legal challenges, which have precluded the use of reinforcement learning policies in real-world systems. In this work, our goal is to develop algorithms that, by learning to switch control between machines and humans, allow existing reinforcement learning policies to operate under different automation levels. More specifically, we first formally define the learning to switch problem using finite horizon Markov decision processes. Then, we show that, if the human policy is known, we can find the optimal switching policy directly by solving a set of recursive equations using backwards induction. However, in practice, the human policy is often unknown. To overcome this, we develop an algorithm that uses upper confidence bounds on the human policy to find a sequence of switching policies whose total regret with respect to the optimal switching policy is sublinear. Simulation experiments on two important tasks in autonomous driving---lane keeping and obstacle avoidance---demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms and illustrate our theoretical findings.

The simplified series is obtained by first applying their univariate technique to each of the variables independently; that is, each univariate batch of data is separated into variable-length subsequences, and the obtained subsequences are then clustered as explained in Section 4.1. With this process, a set of representative univariate subsequences is obtained for each variable. Each new multivariate batch of data is then represented by a vector of distances, (d 1,d 2,...,d l), where d j represents the Euclidean distance between the j th variable-length subsequence of the new batch and its corresponding representative subsequence. As with their univariate technique, the reference of normality that is considered by this method is the same time series. The technique proposed by Hu et al. [2019] is also based on reducing the dimensionality of the time series and allows us to detect variable-length discords, while using the same time series as the reference of normality. This is based on the fact that the most unusual subsequences tend to have local regions with significantly different densities (points that are similar) in comparison to the other subsequences in the series. Each point in the new univariate time series describes the density of a local region of the input multivariate time series obtained by a sliding window. This series is also used to obtain the variable-length subsequences. Discords are identified using the Euclidean and Bhattacharyya distances simultaneously.

We study the problem of efficiently estimating the effect of an intervention on a single variable using observational samples in a causal Bayesian network. Our goal is to give algorithms that are efficient in both time and sample complexity in a non-parametric setting. Tian and Pearl (AAAI `02) have exactly characterized the class of causal graphs for which causal effects of atomic interventions can be identified from observational data. We make their result quantitative. Suppose P is a causal model on a set V of n observable variables with respect to a given causal graph G with observable distribution $P$. Let $P_x$ denote the interventional distribution over the observables with respect to an intervention of a designated variable X with x. We show that assuming that G has bounded in-degree, bounded c-components, and that the observational distribution is identifiable and satisfies certain strong positivity condition: 1. [Evaluation] There is an algorithm that outputs with probability $2/3$ an evaluator for a distribution $P'$ that satisfies $d_{tv}(P_x, P') \leq \epsilon$ using $m=\tilde{O}(n\epsilon^{-2})$ samples from $P$ and $O(mn)$ time. The evaluator can return in $O(n)$ time the probability $P'(v)$ for any assignment $v$ to $V$. 2. [Generation] There is an algorithm that outputs with probability $2/3$ a sampler for a distribution $\hat{P}$ that satisfies $d_{tv}(P_x, \hat{P}) \leq \epsilon$ using $m=\tilde{O}(n\epsilon^{-2})$ samples from $P$ and $O(mn)$ time. The sampler returns an iid sample from $\hat{P}$ with probability $1-\delta$ in $O(n\epsilon^{-1} \log\delta^{-1})$ time. We extend our techniques to estimate marginals $P_x|_Y$ over a given $Y \subset V$ of interest. We also show lower bounds for the sample complexity showing that our sample complexity has optimal dependence on the parameters n and $\epsilon$ as well as the strong positivity parameter.

Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class of priors would represent weights compactly, capture correlations between weights, facilitate calibrated reasoning about uncertainty, and allow inclusion of prior knowledge about the function space such as periodicity or dependence on contexts such as inputs. To this end, this paper introduces two innovations: (i) a Gaussian process-based hierarchical model for network weights based on unit embeddings that can flexibly encode correlated weight structures, and (ii) input-dependent versions of these weight priors that can provide convenient ways to regularize the function space through the use of kernels defined on contextual inputs. We show these models provide desirable test-time uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution data, demonstrate cases of modeling inductive biases for neural networks with kernels which help both interpolation and extrapolation from training data, and demonstrate competitive predictive performance on an active learning benchmark.

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms combined with value function approximation have recently achieved impressive performance in a variety of application domains, including games and robotics. However, the theoretical understanding of such algorithms is limited, and existing results are largely focused on episodic or discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this work, we present adaptive approximate policy iteration (AAPI), a learning scheme which enjoys a O(T^{2/3}) regret bound for undiscounted, continuing learning in uniformly ergodic MDPs. This is an improvement over the best existing bound of O(T^{3/4}) for the average-reward case with function approximation. Our algorithm and analysis rely on adversarial online learning techniques, where value functions are treated as losses. The main technical novelty is the use of a data-dependent adaptive learning rate coupled with a so-called optimistic prediction of upcoming losses. In addition to theoretical guarantees, we demonstrate the advantages of our approach empirically on several environments.

In this paper, we analyse classical variants of the Spectral Clustering (SC) algorithm in the Dynamic Stochastic Block Model (DSBM). Existing results show that, in the relatively sparse case where the expected degree grows logarithmically with the number of nodes, guarantees in the static case can be extended to the dynamic case and yield improved error bounds when the DSBM is sufficiently smooth in time, that is, the communities do not change too much between two time steps. We improve over these results by drawing a new link between the sparsity and the smoothness of the DSBM: the more regular the DSBM is, the more sparse it can be, while still guaranteeing consistent recovery. In particular, a mild condition on the smoothness allows to treat the sparse case with bounded degree. We also extend these guarantees to the normalized Laplacian, and as a by-product of our analysis, we obtain to our knowledge the best spectral concentration bound available for the normalized Laplacian of matrices with independent Bernoulli entries.

We consider the task of learning a parametric Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) sequence model without examples of sequences, where the training data consists entirely of aggregate steady-state statistics. Making the problem harder, we assume that the states we wish to predict are unobserved in the training data. Specifically, given a parametric model over the transition rates of a CTMC and some known transition rates, we wish to extrapolate its steady state distribution to states that are unobserved. A technical roadblock to learn a CTMC from its steady state has been that the chain rule to compute gradients will not work over the arbitrarily long sequences necessary to reach steady state ---from where the aggregate statistics are sampled. To overcome this optimization challenge, we propose $\infty$-SGD, a principled stochastic gradient descent method that uses randomly-stopped estimators to avoid infinite sums required by the steady state computation, while learning even when only a subset of the CTMC states can be observed. We apply $\infty$-SGD to a real-world testbed and synthetic experiments showcasing its accuracy, ability to extrapolate the steady state distribution to unobserved states under unobserved conditions (heavy loads, when training under light loads), and succeeding in difficult scenarios where even a tailor-made extension of existing methods fails.

We study the information content of nuclear masses from the perspective of global models of nuclear binding energies. To this end, we employ a number of statistical methods and diagnostic tools, including Bayesian calibration, Bayesian model averaging, chi-square correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and empirical coverage probability. Using Bayesian framework, we investigate the structure of the 4-parameter Liquid Drop Model by considering discrepant mass domains for calibration. We then use the chi-square correlation framework to analyze the 14-parameter Skyrme energy density functional calibrated using homogeneous and heterogeneous datasets. We show that a quite dramatic parameter reduction can be achieved in both cases. The advantage of the Bayesian model averaging for improving the uncertainty quantification is demonstrated. The statistical approaches used are pedagogically described; in this context this work can serve as a guide for future applications.

Most predictive models assume that training and test data are generated from a stationary process. However, this assumption does not hold true in practice. In this paper, we consider the scenario of a gradual concept drift due to the underlying non-stationarity of the data source. While previous work has investigated this scenario under a supervised-learning and adaption conditions, few have addressed the common, real-world scenario when labels are only available during training. We propose a novel, iterative algorithm for unsupervised adaptation of predictive models. We show that the performance of our batch adapted prediction algorithm is better than that of its corresponding unadapted version. The proposed algorithm provides similar (or better, in most cases) performance within significantly less run time compared to other state of the art methods.