Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique that iteratively samples variables from their conditional distributions. There are two common scan orders for the variables: random scan and systematic scan. Due to the benefits of locality in hardware, systematic scan is commonly used, even though most statistical guarantees are only for random scan. While it has been conjectured that the mixing times of random scan and systematic scan do not differ by more than a logarithmic factor, we show by counterexample that this is not the case, and we prove that that the mixing times do not differ by more than a polynomial factor under mild conditions. To prove these relative bounds, we introduce a method of augmenting the state space to study systematic scan using conductance.

Concurrently advances in causal modelling has led to a better understanding of how to predict complex systems when these are subjected to control. A major breakthrough then occurred about 20 years ago when it was then discovered that causal and graphical modelling could be combined. This paper reports on how the combination of these two technologies are being applied to give more insights concerning causal hypotheses that relate specially to reliability and system safety. Of course causal ideas have been embedded within reliability theory for a long time, both to explore the reasons behind a failure and to also estimate the efficacy of various interventions in the system that might ameliorate adverse outcomes. However, the graphical frameworks around which these ideas appear have been tree like - for example fault trees or event chains (Leverson 2011) - rather than the most common graphical framework for analyzing causation: the BN. Only recently have graphical causal methods emerged for methodologies and algorithms to exist for causal discovery and causal reasoning on such tree structures. The primary such graph is the chain event graph (CEG), see Thwaites, Smith and Riccomagno (2010), Barclay, Hutton and Smith (2013) and Collazo et.

The design of symbol detectors in digital communication systems has traditionally relied on statistical channel models that describe the relation between the transmitted symbols and the observed signal at the receiver. Here we review a data-driven framework to symbol detection design which combines machine learning (ML) and model-based algorithms. In this hybrid approach, well-known channelmodel-based algorithms such as the Viterbi method, BCJR detection, and multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) soft interference cancellation (SIC) are augmented with MLbased algorithms to remove their channel-model-dependence, allowing the receiver to learn to implement these algorithms solely from data. The resulting data-driven receivers are most suitable for systems where the underlying channel models are poorly understood, highly complex, or do not well-capture the underlying physics. Our approach is unique in that it only replaces the channel-model-based computations with dedicated neural networks that can be trained from a small amount of data, while keeping the general algorithm intact. Our results demonstrate that these techniques can yield near-optimal performance of model-based algorithms without knowing the exact channel input-output statistical relationship and in the presence of channel state information uncertainty. I. INTRODUCTION In digital communication systems, the receiver is required to reliably recover the transmitted symbols from the observed channel output. This task is commonly referred to as symbol detection. Conventional symbol detection algorithms, such as those based on the maximum a-posteriori probability (MAP) rule, require complete knowledge of the underlying channel model and its parameters [1], [2]. This work was supported in part by the US - Israel Binational Science Foundation under grant No. 2026094, by the Israel Science Foundation under grant No. 0100101, and by the Office of the Naval Research under grant No. 18-1-2191. N. Shlezinger and Y. C. Eldar are with the Faculty of Math and CS, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel (email: nirshlezinger1@gmail.com; yonina@weizmann.ac.il). Furthermore, when the channel models are known, many detection algorithms rely on channel state information (CSI), i.e., the instantaneous parameters of the channel model, for detection. Therefore, conventional channel-model-based techniques require the instantaneous CSI to be estimated.

At the working heart of policy iteration algorithms commonly used and studied in the discounted setting of reinforcement learning, the policy evaluation step estimates the value of state with samples from a Markov reward process induced by following a Markov policy in a Markov decision process. We propose a simple and efficient estimator called \emph{loop estimator} that exploits the regenerative structure of Markov reward processes without explicitly estimating a full model. Our method enjoys a space complexity of $O(1)$ when estimating the value of a single positive recurrent state $s$ unlike TD (with $O(S)$) or model-based methods (with $O(S^2)$). Moreover, the regenerative structure enables us to show, without relying on the generative model approach, that the estimator has an instance-dependent convergence rate of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{\tau_s/T})$ over steps $T$ on a single sample path, where $\tau_s$ is the maximal expected hitting time to state $s$. In preliminary numerical experiments, the loop estimator outperforms model-free methods, such as TD(k), and is competitive with the model-based estimator.

Patients whose transfer to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) is unplanned are prone to higher mortality rates than those who were admitted directly to the ICU. Recent advances in machine learning to predict patient deterioration have introduced the possibility of \emph{proactive transfer} from the ward to the ICU. In this work, we study the problem of finding \emph{robust} patient transfer policies which account for uncertainty in statistical estimates due to data limitations when optimizing to improve overall patient care. We propose a Markov Decision Process model to capture the evolution of patient health, where the states represent a measure of patient severity. Under fairly general assumptions, we show that an optimal transfer policy has a threshold structure, i.e., that it transfers all patients above a certain severity level to the ICU (subject to available capacity). As model parameters are typically determined based on statistical estimations from real-world data, they are inherently subject to misspecification and estimation errors. We account for this parameter uncertainty by deriving a robust policy that optimizes the worst-case reward across all plausible values of the model parameters. We show that the robust policy also has a threshold structure under fairly general assumptions. Moreover, it is more aggressive in transferring patients than the optimal nominal policy, which does not take into account parameter uncertainty. We present computational experiments using a dataset of hospitalizations at 21 KNPC hospitals, and present empirical evidence of the sensitivity of various hospital metrics (mortality, length-of-stay, average ICU occupancy) to small changes in the parameters. Our work provides useful insights into the impact of parameter uncertainty on deriving simple policies for proactive ICU transfer that have strong empirical performance and theoretical guarantees.

We derive an unbiased estimator for expectations over discrete random variables based on sampling without replacement, which reduces variance as it avoids duplicate samples. We show that our estimator can be derived as the Rao-Blackwellization of three different estimators. Combining our estimator with REINFORCE, we obtain a policy gradient estimator and we reduce its variance using a built-in control variate which is obtained without additional model evaluations. The resulting estimator is closely related to other gradient estimators. Experiments with a toy problem, a categorical Variational Auto-Encoder and a structured prediction problem show that our estimator is the only estimator that is consistently among the best estimators in both high and low entropy settings.

We present a new method for evaluating and training unnormalized density models. Our approach only requires access to the gradient of the unnormalized model's log-density. We estimate the Stein discrepancy between the data density p(x) and the model density q(x) defined by a vector function of the data. We parameterize this function with a neural network and fit its parameters to maximize the discrepancy. This yields a novel goodness-of-fit test which outperforms existing methods on high dimensional data. Furthermore, optimizing $q(x)$ to minimize this discrepancy produces a novel method for training unnormalized models which scales more gracefully than existing methods. The ability to both learn and compare models is a unique feature of the proposed method.

State variables are easily the most subtle dimension of sequential decision problems. This is especially true in the context of active learning problems (bandit problems") where decisions affect what we observe and learn. We describe our canonical framework that models {\it any} sequential decision problem, and present our definition of state variables that allows us to claim: Any properly modeled sequential decision problem is Markovian. We then present a novel two-agent perspective of partially observable Markov decision problems (POMDPs) that allows us to then claim: Any model of a real decision problem is (possibly) non-Markovian. We illustrate these perspectives using the context of observing and treating flu in a population, and provide examples of all four classes of policies in this setting. We close with an indication of how to extend this thinking to multiagent problems.

We introduce a novel and efficient algorithm called the stochastic approximate gradient descent (SAGD), as an alternative to the stochastic gradient descent for cases where unbiased stochastic gradients cannot be trivially obtained. Traditional methods for such problems rely on general-purpose sampling techniques such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, which typically requires manual intervention for tuning parameters and does not work efficiently in practice. Instead, SAGD makes use of the Langevin algorithm to construct stochastic gradients that are biased in finite steps but accurate asymptotically, enabling us to theoretically establish the convergence guarantee for SAGD. Inspired by our theoretical analysis, we also provide useful guidelines for its practical implementation. Finally, we show that SAGD performs well experimentally in popular statistical and machine learning problems such as the expectation-maximization algorithm and the variational autoencoders.

We propose and analyze a novel theoretical and algorithmic framework for structured prediction. While so far the term has referred to discrete output spaces, here we consider more general settings, such as manifolds or spaces of probability measures. We define structured prediction as a problem where the output space lacks a vectorial structure. We identify and study a large class of loss functions that implicitly defines a suitable geometry on the problem. The latter is the key to develop an algorithmic framework amenable to a sharp statistical analysis and yielding efficient computations. When dealing with output spaces with infinite cardinality, a suitable implicit formulation of the estimator is shown to be crucial.