Accurate estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial equipment can enable advanced maintenance schedules, increase equipment availability and reduce operational costs. However, existing deep learning methods for RUL prediction are not completely successful due to the following two reasons. First, relying on a single objective function to estimate the RUL will limit the learned representations and thus affect the prediction accuracy. Second, while longer sequences are more informative for modelling the sensor dynamics of equipment, existing methods are less effective to deal with very long sequences, as they mainly focus on the latest information. To address these two problems, we develop a novel attention-based sequence to sequence with auxiliary task (ATS2S) model. In particular, our model jointly optimizes both reconstruction loss to empower our model with predictive capabilities (by predicting next input sequence given current input sequence) and RUL prediction loss to minimize the difference between the predicted RUL and actual RUL. Furthermore, to better handle longer sequence, we employ the attention mechanism to focus on all the important input information during training process. Finally, we propose a new dual-latent feature representation to integrate the encoder features and decoder hidden states, to capture rich semantic information in data. We conduct extensive experiments on four real datasets to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed method. Experimental results show that our proposed method can achieve superior performance over 13 state-of-the-art methods consistently.

Human attention is a scarce resource in modern computing. A multitude of microtasks vie for user attention to crowdsource information, perform momentary assessments, personalize services, and execute actions with a single touch. A lot gets done when these tasks take up the invisible free moments of the day. However, an interruption at an inappropriate time degrades productivity and causes annoyance. Prior works have exploited contextual cues and behavioral data to identify interruptibility for microtasks with much success. With Quick Question, we explore use of reinforcement learning (RL) to schedule microtasks while minimizing user annoyance and compare its performance with supervised learning. We model the problem as a Markov decision process and use Advantage Actor Critic algorithm to identify interruptible moments based on context and history of user interactions. In our 5-week, 30-participant study, we compare the proposed RL algorithm against supervised learning methods. While the mean number of responses between both methods is commensurate, RL is more effective at avoiding dismissal of notifications and improves user experience over time.

Dirichlet-multinomial (DMN) distribution is commonly used to model over-dispersion in count data. Precise and fast numerical computation of the DMN log-likelihood function is important for performing statistical inference using this distribution, and remains a challenge. To address this, we use mathematical properties of the gamma function to derive a closed form expression for the DMN log-likelihood function. Compared to existing methods, calculation of the closed form has a lower computational complexity, hence is much faster without comprimising computational accuracy.

In this thesis, I propose a family of fully decentralized deep multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms to achieve high, real-time performance in network-level traffic signal control. In this approach, each intersection is modeled as an agent that plays a Markovian Game against the other intersection nodes in a traffic signal network modeled as an undirected graph, to approach the optimal reduction in delay. Following Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), there are 3 levels of communication schemes between adjacent learning agents: independent deep Q-leaning (IDQL), shared states reinforcement learning (S2RL) and a shared states & rewards version of S2RL--S2R2L. In these 3 variants of decentralized MARL schemes, individual agent trains its local deep Q network (DQN) separately, enhanced by convergence-guaranteed techniques like double DQN, prioritized experience replay, multi-step bootstrapping, etc. To test the performance of the proposed three MARL algorithms, a SUMO-based simulation platform is developed to mimic the traffic evolution of the real world. Fed with random traffic demand between permitted OD pairs, a 4x4 Manhattan-style grid network is set up as the testbed, two different vehicle arrival rates are generated for model training and testing. The experiment results show that S2R2L has a quicker convergence rate and better convergent performance than IDQL and S2RL in the training process. Moreover, three MARL schemes all reveal exceptional generalization abilities. Their testing results surpass the benchmark Max Pressure (MP) algorithm, under the criteria of average vehicle delay, network-level queue length and fuel consumption rate. Notably, S2R2L has the best testing performance of reducing 34.55% traffic delay and dissipating 10.91% queue length compared with MP.

Many social services including online dating, social media, recruitment and online learning, largely rely on \matching people with the right people". The success of these services and the user experience with them often depends on their ability to match users. Reciprocal Recommender Systems (RRS) arose to facilitate this process by identifying users who are a potential match for each other, based on information provided by them. These systems are inherently more complex than user-item recommendation approaches and unidirectional user recommendation services, since they need to take into account both users' preferences towards each other in the recommendation process. This entails not only predicting accurate preference estimates as classical recommenders do, but also defining adequate fusion processes for aggregating user-to-user preferential information. The latter is a crucial and distinctive, yet barely investigated aspect in RRS research. This paper presents a snapshot analysis of the extant literature to summarize the state-of-the-art RRS research to date, focusing on the fundamental features that differentiate RRSs from other classes of recommender systems. Following this, we discuss the challenges and opportunities for future research on RRSs, with special focus on (i) fusion strategies to account for reciprocity and (ii) emerging application domains related to social recommendation.

We consider the problem of batch multi-task reinforcement learning with observed context descriptors, motivated by its application to personalized medical treatment. In particular, we study two general classes of learning algorithms: direct policy learning (DPL), an imitation-learning based approach which learns from expert trajectories, and model-based learning. First, we derive sample complexity bounds for DPL, and then show that model-based learning from expert actions can, even with a finite model class, be impossible. After relaxing the conditions under which the model-based approach is expected to learn by allowing for greater coverage of state-action space, we provide sample complexity bounds for model-based learning with finite model classes, showing that there exist model classes with sample complexity exponential in their statistical complexity. We then derive a sample complexity upper bound for model-based learning based on a measure of concentration of the data distribution. Our results give formal justification for imitation learning over model-based learning in this setting.

Of these, probably the most common is the use of supervised classification to construct low-dimensional event summaries, which are informative to carry out statistical inference for a given set of parameters of interest. The learned summary statistics -functions of the data that are informative on their relevant properties-can efficiently combine high-dimensional information from each event into one or a few variables which can be used as the basis of statistical inference. The informational source for this compression are simulated observations produced by a complex generative model; the latter reproduces the chain of physical processes occurring in subatomic collisions and the subsequent interaction of the produced final state particles with the detection elements.

Cells regulate themselves via dizzyingly complex biochemical processes called signaling pathways. These are usually depicted as a network, where nodes represent proteins and edges indicate their influence on each other. In order to understand diseases and therapies at the cellular level, it is crucial to have an accurate understanding of the signaling pathways at work. Since signaling pathways can be modified by disease, the ability to infer signaling pathways from condition- or patient-specific data is highly valuable. A variety of techniques exist for inferring signaling pathways. We build on past works that formulate signaling pathway inference as a Dynamic Bayesian Network structure estimation problem on phosphoproteomic time course data. We take a Bayesian approach, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo to estimate a posterior distribution over possible Dynamic Bayesian Network structures. Our primary contributions are (i) a novel proposal distribution that efficiently samples sparse graphs and (ii) the relaxation of common restrictive modeling assumptions. We implement our method, named Sparse Signaling Pathway Sampling, in Julia using the Gen probabilistic programming language. Probabilistic programming is a powerful methodology for building statistical models. The resulting code is modular, extensible, and legible. The Gen language, in particular, allows us to customize our inference procedure for biological graphs and ensure efficient sampling. We evaluate our algorithm on simulated data and the HPN-DREAM pathway reconstruction challenge, comparing our performance against a variety of baseline methods. Our results demonstrate the vast potential for probabilistic programming, and Gen specifically, for biological network inference. Find the full codebase at https://github.com/gitter-lab/ssps

The synthesis problem for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) is to compute a policy that satisfies a given specification. Such policies have to take the full execution history of a POMDP into account, rendering the problem undecidable in general. A common approach is to use a limited amount of memory and randomize over potential choices. Yet, this problem is still NP-hard and often computationally intractable in practice. A restricted problem is to use neither history nor randomization, yielding policies that are called stationary and deterministic. Previous approaches to compute such policies employ mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). We provide a novel MILP encoding that supports sophisticated specifications in the form of temporal logic constraints. It is able to handle an arbitrary number of such specifications. Yet, randomization and memory are often mandatory to achieve satisfactory policies. First, we extend our encoding to deliver a restricted class of randomized policies. Second, based on the results of the original MILP, we employ a preprocessing of the POMDP to encompass memory-based decisions. The advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art POMDP solvers lie (1) in the flexibility to strengthen simple deterministic policies without losing computational tractability and (2) in the ability to enforce the provable satisfaction of arbitrarily many specifications. The latter point allows taking trade-offs between performance and safety aspects of typical POMDP examples into account. We show the effectiveness of our method on a broad range of benchmarks.

As a typical vehicle-cyber-physical-system (V-CPS), connected automated vehicles attracted more and more attention in recent years. This paper focuses on discussing the decision-making (DM) strategy for autonomous vehicles in a connected environment. First, the highway DM problem is formulated, wherein the vehicles can exchange information via wireless networking. Then, two classical reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, Q-learning and Dyna, are leveraged to derive the DM strategies in a predefined driving scenario. Finally, the control performance of the derived DM policies in safety and efficiency is analyzed. Furthermore, the inherent differences of the RL algorithms are embodied and discussed in DM strategies.