In this work we consider partially observable environments with sparse rewards. We present a self-supervised representation learning method for image-based observations, which arranges embeddings respecting temporal distance of observations. This representation is empirically robust to stochasticity and suitable for novelty detection from the error of a predictive forward model. We consider episodic and life-long uncertainties to guide the exploration. We propose to estimate the missing information about the environment with the world model, which operates in the learned latent space. As a motivation of the method, we analyse the exploration problem in a tabular Partially Observable Labyrinth. We demonstrate the method on image-based hard exploration environments from the Atari benchmark and report significant improvement with respect to prior work. The source code of the method and all the experiments is available at https://github.com/htdt/lwm.

Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the original model. Bayesian methods can quantify that uncertainty, and deep learning models exist that follow the Bayesian paradigm. These models, namely Bayesian neural networks and Gaussian process models, enable us to give predictions together with an estimate of the model's uncertainty. As a result we can derive uncertainty-aware surrogate models that can automatically suspect unseen design samples that cause large emulation errors. For these samples, the high-fidelity model can be queried instead. This outlines how the Bayesian paradigm allows us to hybridize fast, but approximate, and slow, but accurate models. In this paper, we train two types of Bayesian models, dropout neural networks and stochastic variational Gaussian Process models, to emulate a complex high dimensional building energy performance simulation problem. The surrogate model processes 35 building design parameters (inputs) to estimate 12 different performance metrics (outputs). We benchmark both approaches, prove their accuracy to be competitive, and show that errors can be reduced by up to 30% when the 10% of samples with the highest uncertainty are transferred to the high-fidelity model.

The variational auto-encoder (VAE) is a deep latent variable model that has two neural networks in an autoencoder-like architecture; one of them parameterizes the model's likelihood. Fitting its parameters via maximum likelihood is challenging since the computation of the likelihood involves an intractable integral over the latent space; thus the VAE is trained instead by maximizing a variational lower bound. Here, we develop a maximum likelihood training scheme for VAEs by introducing unbiased gradient estimators of the log-likelihood. We obtain the unbiased estimators by augmenting the latent space with a set of importance samples, similarly to the importance weighted auto-encoder (IWAE), and then constructing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) coupling procedure on this augmented space. We provide the conditions under which the estimators can be computed in finite time and have finite variance. We demonstrate experimentally that VAEs fitted with unbiased estimators exhibit better predictive performance on three image datasets.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with rich feature vectors of past values can provide accurate point forecasts for series that exhibit complex serial dependence. We propose two approaches to constructing deep time series probabilistic models based on a variant of RNN called an echo state network (ESN). The first is where the output layer of the ESN has stochastic disturbances and a shrinkage prior for additional regularization. The second approach employs the implicit copula of an ESN with Gaussian disturbances, which is a deep copula process on the feature space. Combining this copula with a non-parametrically estimated marginal distribution produces a deep distributional time series model. The resulting probabilistic forecasts are deep functions of the feature vector and also marginally calibrated. In both approaches, Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the models and compute forecasts. The proposed deep time series models are suitable for the complex task of forecasting intraday electricity prices. Using data from the Australian National Electricity Market, we show that our models provide accurate probabilistic price forecasts. Moreover, the models provide a flexible framework for incorporating probabilistic forecasts of electricity demand as additional features. We demonstrate that doing so in the deep distributional time series model in particular, increases price forecast accuracy substantially.

Estimating mutual information between continuous random variables is often intractable and extremely challenging for high-dimensional data. Recent progress has leveraged neural networks to optimize variational lower bounds on mutual information. Although showing promise for this difficult problem, the variational methods have been theoretically and empirically proven to have serious statistical limitations: 1) many methods struggle to produce accurate estimates when the underlying mutual information is either low or high; 2) the resulting estimators may suffer from high variance. Our approach is based on training a classifier that provides the probability that a data sample pair is drawn from the joint distribution rather than from the product of its marginal distributions. Moreover, we establish a direct connection between mutual information and the average log odds estimate produced by the classifier on a test set, leading to a simple and accurate estimator of mutual information. We show theoretically that our method and other variational approaches are equivalent when they achieve their optimum, while our method sidesteps the variational bound. Empirical results demonstrate high accuracy of our approach and the advantages of our estimator in the context of representation learning. Mutual information (MI) measures the information that two random variables share.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has demonstrated significant success in training decentralised policies in a centralised manner by making use of value factorization methods. However, addressing surprise across spurious states and approximation bias remain open problems for multi-agent settings. We introduce the Energy-based MIXer (EMIX), an algorithm which minimizes surprise utilizing the energy across agents. Our contributions are threefold; (1) EMIX introduces a novel surprise minimization technique across multiple agents in the case of multi-agent partially-observable settings. (2) EMIX highlights the first practical use of energy functions in MARL (to our knowledge) with theoretical guarantees and experiment validations of the energy operator. Lastly, (3) EMIX presents a novel technique for addressing overestimation bias across agents in MARL. When evaluated on a range of challenging StarCraft II micromanagement scenarios, EMIX demonstrates consistent state-of-the-art performance for multi-agent surprise minimization. Moreover, our ablation study highlights the necessity of the energy-based scheme and the need for elimination of overestimation bias in MARL. Our implementation of EMIX and videos of agents are available at https://karush17.github.io/emix-web/.

We present a method for enhancing the sensitivity of X-ray telescopic observations with imaging polarimeters, with a focus on the gas pixel detectors (GPDs) to be flown on the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE). Our analysis determines photoelectron directions, X-ray absorption points and X-ray energies for 1-9 keV event tracks, with estimates for both the statistical and model (reconstruction) uncertainties. We use a weighted maximum likelihood combination of predictions from a deep ensemble of ResNet convolutional neural networks, trained on Monte Carlo event simulations. We define a figure of merit to compare the polarization bias-variance trade-off in track reconstruction algorithms. For power-law source spectra, our method improves on the current planned IXPE analysis (and previous deep learning approaches), providing ~45% increase in effective exposure times. For individual energies, our method produces 20-30% absolute improvements in modulation factor for simulated 100% polarized events, while keeping residual systematic modulation within 1 sigma of the finite sample minimum. Absorption point location and photon energy estimates are also significantly improved. We have validated our method with sample data from real GPD detectors.

Learning data representations that capture task-related features, but are invariant to nuisance variations remains a key challenge in machine learning. We introduce an automated Bayesian inference framework, called AutoBayes, that explores different graphical models linking classifier, encoder, decoder, estimator and adversary network blocks to optimize nuisance-invariant machine learning pipelines. AutoBayes also enables learning disentangled representations, where the latent variable is split into multiple pieces to impose different relation with nuisance variation and task labels. We benchmark the framework on several public datasets, where we have access to subject and class labels during training, and provide analysis of its capability for subject-transfer learning with/without variational modeling and adversarial training. We demonstrate a significant performance improvement by ensemble stacking across explored graphical models.

QTRAN is a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithm capable of learning the largest class of joint-action value functions up to date. However, despite its strong theoretical guarantee, it has shown poor empirical performance in complex environments, such as Starcraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC). In this paper, we identify the performance bottleneck of QTRAN and propose a substantially improved version, coined QTRAN++. Our gains come from (i) stabilizing the training objective of QTRAN, (ii) removing the strict role separation between the action-value estimators of QTRAN, and (iii) introducing a multi-head mixing network for value transformation. Through extensive evaluation, we confirm that our diagnosis is correct, and QTRAN++ successfully bridges the gap between empirical performance and theoretical guarantee. In particular, QTRAN++ newly achieves state-of-the-art performance in the SMAC environment. The code will be released.

Neural autoregressive sequence models are used to generate sequences in a variety of natural language processing (NLP) tasks, where they are evaluated according to sequence-level task losses. These models are typically trained with maximum likelihood estimation, which ignores the task loss, yet empirically performs well as a surrogate objective. Typical approaches to directly optimizing the task loss such as policy gradient and minimum risk training are based around sampling in the sequence space to obtain candidate update directions that are scored based on the loss of a single sequence. In this paper, we develop an alternative method based on random search in the parameter space that leverages access to the maximum likelihood gradient. We propose maximum likelihood guided parameter search (MGS), which samples from a distribution over update directions that is a mixture of random search around the current parameters and around the maximum likelihood gradient, with each direction weighted by its improvement in the task loss. MGS shifts sampling to the parameter space, and scores candidates using losses that are pooled from multiple sequences. Our experiments show that MGS is capable of optimizing sequence-level losses, with substantial reductions in repetition and non-termination in sequence completion, and similar improvements to those of minimum risk training in machine translation.