Compared to the conditional mean as a simple point estimator, the conditional density function is more informative to describe the distributions with multi-modality, asymmetry or heteroskedasticity. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric conditional density estimation method by showing the connection between the general density and the likelihood function of inhomogeneous Poisson process models. The maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained via weighted logistic regressions, and the computation can be significantly relaxed by combining a block-wise alternating maximization scheme and local case-control sampling. We also provide simulation studies for illustration.

Variational Bayes has gained popularity in recent years as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures to approximate analytically intractable posterior distributions; refer to Blei et al. [2017] for a comprehensive overview. Variational inference formulates the problem of approximating the posterior as an optimization routine by minimizing a measure of discrepancy between probability densities in an approximating class and the posterior density. The variational solution refers to the closest member of the approximating class to the posterior, with closeness measured through divergences or metrics, usually Kullback-Leibler divergence. Other discrepancy measures for approximating the posterior have been studied, like the Wasserstein distance and Rényi divergence in Huggins et al. [2020], Fisher distance in Huggins et al. [2018] and Hellinger metric in Campbell and Li [2019]. The approximating class or the domain of optimization, commonly referred to as the variational family, plays a central role in these methods. It is chosen to strike a balance between computational tractability and approximation power. A richer, more flexible family allows better approximation of the posterior, while a simpler class of distributions facilitate calculations and computation speed. The Gaussian family is a popular example of a parametric variational family, where the optimization effectively takes place over a finite-dimensional parameter space. For a semi-parametric approach, one can use the popular mean-field family, which only assumes that the variational density factorizes over pre-specified sub-blocks of the parameter, with the factors otherwise unrestricted.

A common problem in neuroscience is to elucidate the collective neural representations of behaviorally important variables such as head direction, spatial location, upcoming movements, or mental spatial transformations. Often, these latent variables are internal constructs not directly accessible to the experimenter. Here, we propose a new probabilistic latent variable model to simultaneously identify the latent state and the way each neuron contributes to its representation in an unsupervised way. In contrast to previous models which assume Euclidean latent spaces, we embrace the fact that latent states often belong to symmetric manifolds such as spheres, tori, or rotation groups of various dimensions. We therefore propose the manifold Gaussian process latent variable model (mGPLVM), where neural responses arise from (i) a shared latent variable living on a specific manifold, and (ii) a set of non-parametric tuning curves determining how each neuron contributes to the representation. Cross-validated comparisons of models with different topologies can be used to distinguish between candidate manifolds, and variational inference enables quantification of uncertainty. We demonstrate the validity of the approach on several synthetic datasets, as well as on calcium recordings from the ellipsoid body of Drosophila melanogaster and extracellular recordings from the mouse anterodorsal thalamic nucleus. These circuits are both known to encode head direction, and mGPLVM correctly recovers the ring topology expected from neural populations representing a single angular variable.

Memory-based meta-learning is a powerful technique to build agents that adapt fast to any task within a target distribution. A previous theoretical study has argued that this remarkable performance is because the meta-training protocol incentivises agents to behave Bayes-optimally. We empirically investigate this claim on a number of prediction and bandit tasks. Inspired by ideas from theoretical computer science, we show that meta-learned and Bayes-optimal agents not only behave alike, but they even share a similar computational structure, in the sense that one agent system can approximately simulate the other. Furthermore, we show that Bayes-optimal agents are fixed points of the meta-learning dynamics. Our results suggest that memory-based meta-learning might serve as a general technique for numerically approximating Bayes-optimal agents - that is, even for task distributions for which we currently don't possess tractable models.

How can we plan efficiently in real time to control an agent in a complex environment that may involve many other agents? While existing sample-based planners have enjoyed empirical success in large POMDPs, their performance heavily relies on a fast simulator. However, real-world scenarios are complex in nature and their simulators are often computationally demanding, which severely limits the performance of online planners. In this work, we propose influence-augmented online planning, a principled method to transform a factored simulator of the entire environment into a local simulator that samples only the state variables that are most relevant to the observation and reward of the planning agent and captures the incoming influence from the rest of the environment using machine learning methods. Our main experimental results show that planning on this less accurate but much faster local simulator with POMCP leads to higher real-time planning performance than planning on the simulator that models the entire environment.

Among existing uncertainty estimation approaches, Dirichlet Prior Network (DPN) distinctly models different predictive uncertainty types. However, for in-domain examples with high data uncertainties among multiple classes, even a DPN model often produces indistinguishable representations from the out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, compromising their OOD detection performance. We address this shortcoming by proposing a novel loss function for DPN to maximize the \textit{representation gap} between in-domain and OOD examples. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach consistently improves OOD detection performance.

Attention modules, as simple and effective tools, have not only enabled deep neural networks to achieve state-of-the-art results in many domains, but also enhanced their interpretability. Most current models use deterministic attention modules due to their simplicity and ease of optimization. Stochastic counterparts, on the other hand, are less popular despite their potential benefits. The main reason is that stochastic attention often introduces optimization issues or requires significant model changes. In this paper, we propose a scalable stochastic version of attention that is easy to implement and optimize. We construct simplex-constrained attention distributions by normalizing reparameterizable distributions, making the training process differentiable. We learn their parameters in a Bayesian framework where a data-dependent prior is introduced for regularization. We apply the proposed stochastic attention modules to various attention-based models, with applications to graph node classification, visual question answering, image captioning, machine translation, and language understanding. Our experiments show the proposed method brings consistent improvements over the corresponding baselines.

Understanding systems by forward and inverse modeling is a recurrent topic of research in many domains of science and engineering. In this context, Monte Carlo methods have been widely used as powerful tools for numerical inference and optimization. They require the choice of a suitable proposal density that is crucial for their performance. For this reason, several adaptive importance sampling (AIS) schemes have been proposed in the literature. We here present an AIS framework called Regression-based Adaptive Deep Importance Sampling (RADIS). In RADIS, the key idea is the adaptive construction via regression of a non-parametric proposal density (i.e., an emulator), which mimics the posterior distribution and hence minimizes the mismatch between proposal and target densities. RADIS is based on a deep architecture of two (or more) nested IS schemes, in order to draw samples from the constructed emulator. The algorithm is highly efficient since employs the posterior approximation as proposal density, which can be improved adding more support points. As a consequence, RADIS asymptotically converges to an exact sampler under mild conditions. Additionally, the emulator produced by RADIS can be in turn used as a cheap surrogate model for further studies. We introduce two specific RADIS implementations that use Gaussian Processes (GPs) and Nearest Neighbors (NN) for constructing the emulator. Several numerical experiments and comparisons show the benefits of the proposed schemes. A real-world application in remote sensing model inversion and emulation confirms the validity of the approach.

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) has become a well-established class of methods for the analysis of non-negative data. In particular, a lot of effort has been devoted to probabilistic NMF, namely estimation or inference tasks in probabilistic models describing the data, based for example on Poisson or exponential likelihoods. When dealing with time series data, several works have proposed to model the evolution of the activation coefficients as a non-negative Markov chain, most of the time in relation with the Gamma distribution, giving rise to so-called temporal NMF models. In this paper, we review four Gamma Markov chains of the NMF literature, and show that they all share the same drawback: the absence of a well-defined stationary distribution. We then introduce a fifth process, an overlooked model of the time series literature named BGAR(1), which overcomes this limitation. These temporal NMF models are then compared in a MAP framework on a prediction task, in the context of the Poisson likelihood.

The airworthiness and safety of a non-pedigreed autopilot must be verified, but the cost to formally do so can be prohibitive. We can bypass formal verification of non-pedigreed components by incorporating Runtime Safety Assurance (RTSA) as mechanism to ensure safety. RTSA consists of a meta-controller that observes the inputs and outputs of a non-pedigreed component and verifies formally specified behavior as the system operates. When the system is triggered, a verified recovery controller is deployed. Recovery controllers are designed to be safe but very likely disruptive to the operational objective of the system, and thus RTSA systems must balance safety and efficiency. The objective of this paper is to design a meta-controller capable of identifying unsafe situations with high accuracy. High dimensional and non-linear dynamics in which modern controllers are deployed along with the black-box nature of the nominal controllers make this a difficult problem. Current approaches rely heavily on domain expertise and human engineering. We frame the design of RTSA with the Markov decision process (MDP) framework and use reinforcement learning (RL) to solve it. Our learned meta-controller consistently exhibits superior performance in our experiments compared to our baseline, human engineered approach.