We give an algorithm for source identification of a mixture of $k$ product distributions on $n$ bits. This is a fundamental problem in machine learning with many applications. Our algorithm identifies the source parameters of an identifiable mixture, given, as input, approximate values of multilinear moments (derived, for instance, from a sufficiently large sample), using $2^{O(k^2)} n^{O(k)}$ arithmetic operations. Our result is the first explicit bound on the computational complexity of source identification of such mixtures. The running time improves previous results by Feldman, O'Donnell, and Servedio (FOCS 2005) and Chen and Moitra (STOC 2019) that guaranteed only learning the mixture (without parametric identification of the source). Our analysis gives a quantitative version of a qualitative characterization of identifiable sources that is due to Tahmasebi, Motahari, and Maddah-Ali (ISIT 2018).

Ocean dynamics constitute a source of incertitude in determining the ocean's role in complex climatic phenomena. Current observation systems have difficulty achieving sufficiently statistic precision for three-dimensional oceanic data. It is crucial knowledge to describe the behavior of internal ocean structures. We present a data-driven approach that explores latent class regressions and deep neural networks in modeling ocean dynamics in the extensions of Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The obtained results show a promising direction of data-driven for understanding the ocean's characteristics (salinity, temperature) in both spatial and temporal dimensions in the turbulent regions. Our source codes are publicly available at https://github.com/v18nguye/gulfstream-lrm and at https://github.com/sagudelor/Kuroshio.

Neural text generation models conditioning on given input (e.g. machine translation and image captioning) are usually trained by maximum likelihood estimation of target text. However, the trained models suffer from various types of errors at inference time. In this paper, we propose to suppress an arbitrary type of errors by training the text generation model in a reinforcement learning framework, where we use a trainable reward function that is capable of discriminating between references and sentences containing the targeted type of errors. We create such negative examples by artificially injecting the targeted errors to the references. In experiments, we focus on two error types, repeated and dropped tokens in model-generated text. The experimental results show that our method can suppress the generation errors and achieve significant improvements on two machine translation and two image captioning tasks.

Score based learning (SBL) is a promising approach for learning Bayesian networks. The initial step in the majority of the SBL algorithms consists of computing the scores of all possible child and parent-set combinations for the variables. For Bayesian networks with continuous variables, a particular score is usually calculated as a function of the regression of the child over the variables in the parent-set. The sheer number of regressions models to be solved necessitates the design of efficient numerical algorithms. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for an efficient and exact calculation of regressions for all child and parent-set combinations. In the proposed algorithm, we use QR decompositions (QRDs) to capture the dependencies between the regressions for different families and Givens rotations to efficiently traverse through the space of QRDs such that all the regression models are accounted for in the shortest path possible. We compare the complexity of the suggested method with different algorithms, mainly those arising in all subset regression problems, and show that our algorithm has the smallest algorithmic complexity. We also explain how to parallelize the proposed method so as to decrease the runtime by a factor proportional to the number of processors utilized.

Generative models for classification use the joint probability distribution of the class variable and the features to construct a decision rule. Among generative models, Bayesian networks and naive Bayes classifiers are the most commonly used and provide a clear graphical representation of the relationship among all variables. However, these have the disadvantage of highly restricting the type of relationships that could exist, by not allowing for context-specific independences. Here we introduce a new class of generative classifiers, called staged tree classifiers, which formally account for context-specific independence. They are constructed by a partitioning of the vertices of an event tree from which conditional independence can be formally read. The naive staged tree classifier is also defined, which extends the classic naive Bayes classifier whilst retaining the same complexity. An extensive simulation study shows that the classification accuracy of staged tree classifiers is competitive with those of state-of-the-art classifiers. An applied analysis to predict the fate of the passengers of the Titanic highlights the insights that the new class of generative classifiers can give.

Research on the sixth generation cellular networks (6G) is gaining huge momentum to achieve ubiquitous wireless connectivity. Connected autonomous driving (CAV) is a critical vertical envisioned for 6G, holding great potentials of improving road safety, road and energy efficiency. However the stringent service requirements of CAV applications on reliability, latency and high speed communications will present big challenges to 6G networks. New channel access algorithms and intelligent control schemes for connected vehicles are needed for 6G supported CAV. In this paper, we investigated 6G supported cooperative driving, which is an advanced driving mode through information sharing and driving coordination. Firstly we quantify the delay upper bounds of 6G vehicle to vehicle (V2V) communications with hybrid communication and channel access technologies. A deep learning neural network is developed and trained for fast computation of the delay bounds in real time operations. Then, an intelligent strategy is designed to control the inter-vehicle distance for cooperative autonomous driving. Furthermore, we propose a Markov Chain based algorithm to predict the parameters of the system states, and also a safe distance mapping method to enable smooth vehicular speed changes. The proposed algorithms are implemented in the AirSim autonomous driving platform. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithms are effective and robust with safe and stable cooperative autonomous driving, which greatly improve the road safety, capacity and efficiency.

Researchers have used social media data to estimate various macroeconomic indicators about public behaviors, mostly as a way to reduce surveying costs. One of the most widely cited economic indicator is consumer confidence index (CCI). Numerous studies in the past have focused on using social media, especially Twitter data, to predict CCI. However, the strong correlations disappeared when those models were tested with newer data according to a recent comprehensive survey. In this work, we revisit this problem of assessing the true potential of using social media data to measure CCI, by proposing a robust non-parametric Bayesian modeling framework grounded in Gaussian Process Regression (which provides both an estimate and an uncertainty associated with it). Integral to our framework is a principled experimentation methodology that demonstrates how digital data can be employed to reduce the frequency of surveys, and thus periodic polling would be needed only to calibrate our model. Via extensive experimentation we show how the choice of different micro-decisions, such as the smoothing interval, various types of lags etc. have an important bearing on the results. By using decadal data (2008-2019) from Reddit, we show that both monthly and daily estimates of CCI can, indeed, be reliably estimated at least several months in advance, and that our model estimates are far superior to those generated by the existing methods.

For classification tasks, probabilistic models can be categorized into two disjoint classes: generative or discriminative. It depends on the posterior probability computation of the label $x$ given the observation $y$, $p(x | y)$. On the one hand, generative classifiers, like the Naive Bayes or the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), need the computation of the joint probability $p(x, y)$, before using the Bayes rule to compute $p(x | y)$. On the other hand, discriminative classifiers compute $p(x | y)$ directly, regardless of the observations' law. They are intensively used nowadays, with models as Logistic Regression, Conditional Random Fields (CRF), and Artificial Neural Networks. However, the recent Entropic Forward-Backward algorithm shows that the HMM, considered as a generative model, can also match the discriminative one's definition. This example leads to question if it is the case for other generative models. In this paper, we show that the Naive Bayes classifier can also match the discriminative classifier definition, so it can be used in either a generative or a discriminative way. Moreover, this observation also discusses the notion of Generative-Discriminative pairs, linking, for example, Naive Bayes and Logistic Regression, or HMM and CRF. Related to this point, we show that the Logistic Regression can be viewed as a particular case of the Naive Bayes used in a discriminative way.

We study batch normalisation in the context of variational inference methods in Bayesian neural networks, such as mean-field or MC Dropout. We show that batch-normalisation does not affect the optimum of the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Furthermore, we study the Monte Carlo Batch Normalisation (MCBN) algorithm, proposed as an approximate inference technique parallel to MC Dropout, and show that for larger batch sizes, MCBN fails to capture epistemic uncertainty. Finally, we provide insights into what is required to fix this failure, namely having to view the mini-batch size as a variational parameter in MCBN. We comment on the asymptotics of the ELBO with respect to this variational parameter, showing that as dataset size increases towards infinity, the batch-size must increase towards infinity as well for MCBN to be a valid approximate inference technique.

In this article, we aim to provide a literature review of different formulations and approaches to continual reinforcement learning (RL), also known as lifelong or non-stationary RL. We begin by discussing our perspective on why RL is a natural fit for studying continual learning. We then provide a taxonomy of different continual RL formulations and mathematically characterize the non-stationary dynamics of each setting. We go on to discuss evaluation of continual RL agents, providing an overview of benchmarks used in the literature and important metrics for understanding agent performance. Finally, we highlight open problems and challenges in bridging the gap between the current state of continual RL and findings in neuroscience. While still in its early days, the study of continual RL has the promise to develop better incremental reinforcement learners that can function in increasingly realistic applications where non-stationarity plays a vital role. These include applications such as those in the fields of healthcare, education, logistics, and robotics.