The family of methods collectively known as classifier chains has become a popular approach to multi-label learning problems. This approach involves chaining together off-the-shelf binary classifiers in a directed structure, such that individual label predictions become features for other classifiers. Such methods have proved flexible and effective and have obtained state-of-the-art empirical performance across many datasets and multi-label evaluation metrics. This performance led to further studies of the underlying mechanism and efficacy, and investigation into how it could be improved. In the recent decade, numerous studies have explored the theoretical underpinnings of classifier chains, and many improvements have been made to the training and inference procedures, such that this method remains among the best options for multi-label learning. Given this past and ongoing interest, which covers a broad range of applications and research themes, the goal of this work is to provide a review of classifier chains, a survey of the techniques and extensions provided in the literature, as well as perspectives for this approach in the domain of multi-label classification in the future. We conclude positively, with a number of recommendations for researchers and practitioners, as well as outlining key issues for future research.

Fraud has led to a huge addition of expenses in health insurance sector in India. The work is aimed to provide methods applied to health insurance fraud detection. The work presents two approaches - a markov model and an improved markov model using gradient boosting method in health insurance claims. The dataset 382,587 claims of which 38,082 claims are fraudulent. The markov based model gave the accuracy of 94.07% with F1-score at 0.6683. However, the improved markov model performed much better in comparison with the accuracy of 97.10% and F1-score of 0.8546. It was observed that the improved markov model gave much lower false positives compared to markov model.

Causal inference for extremes has only be considered during the past few years. That observations of climate extremes such as floods, hurricanes, and droughts, but also man-made catastrophes like industry fire, terrorist attacks, or crashes of financial markets have been in the focus of research is convincingly documented in the journal Extremes. On the other hand, it is a fundamental problem to assess causality of risks. Often rare events are interconnected; for example, floods disseminate through a river network, and credit markets might fail due to some endogenous systemic risk propagation. Hence, it is necessary to not only understand dependencies between rare events, but also their causal structure.

Mini-batch optimal transport (m-OT) has been successfully used in practical applications that involve probability measures with intractable density, or probability measures with a very high number of supports. The m-OT solves several sparser optimal transport problems and then returns the average of their costs and transportation plans. Despite its scalability advantage, m-OT is not a proper metric between probability measures since it does not satisfy the identity property. To address this problem, we propose a novel mini-batching scheme for optimal transport, named Batch of Mini-batches Optimal Transport (BoMb-OT), that can be formulated as a well-defined distance on the space of probability measures. Furthermore, we show that the m-OT is a limit of the entropic regularized version of the proposed BoMb-OT when the regularized parameter goes to infinity. We carry out extensive experiments to show that the new mini-batching scheme can estimate a better transportation plan between two original measures than m-OT. It leads to a favorable performance of BoMb-OT in the matching and color transfer tasks. Furthermore, we observe that BoMb-OT also provides a better objective loss than m-OT for doing approximate Bayesian computation, estimating parameters of interest in parametric generative models, and learning non-parametric generative models with gradient flow.

Circuit representations are becoming the lingua franca to express and reason about tractable generative and discriminative models. In this paper, we show how complex inference scenarios for these models that commonly arise in machine learning -- from computing the expectations of decision tree ensembles to information-theoretic divergences of deep mixture models -- can be represented in terms of tractable modular operations over circuits. Specifically, we characterize the tractability of a vocabulary of simple transformations -- sums, products, quotients, powers, logarithms, and exponentials -- in terms of sufficient structural constraints of the circuits they operate on, and present novel hardness results for the cases in which these properties are not satisfied. Building on these operations, we derive a unified framework for reasoning about tractable models that generalizes several results in the literature and opens up novel tractable inference scenarios.

Abstract--Real-world applications have been dealing with large amounts of data that arrive over time and generally present changes in their underlying joint probability distribution, i.e., concept drift. Concept drift can be subdivided into two types: virtual drift, which affects the unconditional probability distribution p(x), and real drift, which affects the conditional probability distribution p(y x) . Existing works focuses on real drift. However, strategies to cope with real drift may not be the best suited for dealing with virtual drift, since the real class boundaries remain unchanged. We provide the first in depth analysis of the differences between the impact of virtual and real drifts on classifiers' suitability. We propose an approach to handle both drifts called On-line Gaussian Mixture Model With Noise Filter For Handling Virtual and Real Concept Drifts (OGMMF-VRD). Experiments with 7 synthetic and 3 real-world datasets show that OGMMF-VRD obtained the best results in terms of average accuracy, G-mean and runtime compared to existing approaches. Moreover, its accuracy over time suffered less performance degradation in the presence of drifts. In recent years, real-world applications like credit card learned decision boundaries, which need to be adjusted for fraud detection, flight delay and weather forecasting have the classifier to remain suitable. Such sequences of data are known as data stream learning approaches treat virtual drifts using data streams [2, 3]. They are challenging for data modeling the same strategies as for real drifts [6].

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation techniques are computationally expensive when applied to resource-constrained devices. We propose an efficient framework for predictive uncertainty estimation in NNs deployed on embedded edge systems with no need for fine-tuning or re-training strategies. To meet the energy and latency requirements of these embedded platforms the framework is built from the ground up to provide predictive uncertainty based only on one forward pass and a negligible amount of additional matrix multiplications with theoretically proven correctness. Our aim is to enable already trained deep learning models to generate uncertainty estimates on resource-limited devices at inference time focusing on classification tasks. This framework is founded on theoretical developments casting dropout training as approximate inference in Bayesian NNs. Our layerwise distribution approximation to the convolution layer cascades through the network, providing uncertainty estimates in one single run which ensures minimal overhead, especially compared with uncertainty techniques that require multiple forwards passes and an equal linear rise in energy and latency requirements making them unsuitable in practice. We demonstrate that it yields better performance and flexibility over previous work based on multilayer perceptrons to obtain uncertainty estimates. Our evaluation with mobile applications datasets shows that our approach not only obtains robust and accurate uncertainty estimations but also outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of systems performance, reducing energy consumption (up to 28x), keeping the memory overhead at a minimum while still improving accuracy (up to 16%).

Modern Code Review (MCR) is the process of reviewing new code changes that need to be merged with an existing codebase. As a developer, one may receive many code review requests every day, i.e., the review requests need to be prioritised. Manually prioritising review requests is a challenging and time-consuming process. To address the above problem, we conducted an industrial case study at Ericsson aiming at developing a tool called Pineapple, which uses a Bayesian Network to prioritise code review requests. To validate our approach/tool, we deployed it in a live software development project at Ericsson, wherein more than 150 developers develop a telecommunication product. We focused on evaluating the predictive performance, feasibility, and usefulness of our approach. The results indicate that Pineapple has competent predictive performance (RMSE = 0.21 and MAE = 0.15). Furthermore, around 82.6% of Pineapple's users believe the tool can support code review request prioritisation by providing reliable results, and around 56.5% of the users believe it helps reducing code review lead time. As future work, we plan to evaluate Pineapple's predictive performance, usefulness, and feasibility through a longitudinal investigation.

Estimation of spatially-varying parameters for computationally expensive forward models governed by partial differential equations is addressed. A novel multiscale Bayesian inference approach is introduced based on deep probabilistic generative models. Such generative models provide a flexible representation by inferring on each scale a low-dimensional latent encoding while allowing hierarchical parameter generation from coarse- to fine-scales. Combining the multiscale generative model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), inference across scales is achieved enabling us to efficiently obtain posterior parameter samples at various scales. The estimation of coarse-scale parameters using a low-dimensional latent embedding captures global and notable parameter features using an inexpensive but inaccurate solver. MCMC sampling of the fine-scale parameters is enabled by utilizing the posterior information in the immediate coarser-scale. In this way, the global features are identified in the coarse-scale with inference of low-dimensional variables and inexpensive forward computation, and the local features are refined and corrected in the fine-scale. The developed method is demonstrated with two types of permeability estimation for flow in heterogeneous media. One is a Gaussian random field (GRF) with uncertain length scales, and the other is channelized permeability with the two regions defined by different GRFs. The obtained results indicate that the method allows high-dimensional parameter estimation while exhibiting stability, efficiency and accuracy.

Veracity is an essential key in research and development of innovative products. Live Emotion analysis and verification nullify deceit made to complainers on live chat, corroborate messages of both ends in messaging apps and promote an honest conversation between users. The main concept behind this emotion artificial intelligent verifier is to license or decline message accountability by comparing variegated emotions of chat app users recognized through facial expressions and text prediction. In this paper, a proposed emotion intelligent live detector acts as an honest arbiter who distributes facial emotions into labels namely, Happiness, Sadness, Surprise, and Hate. Further, it separately predicts a label of messages through text classification. Finally, it compares both labels and declares the message as a fraud or a bonafide. For emotion detection, we deployed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) using a miniXception model and for text prediction, we selected Support Vector Machine (SVM) natural language processing probability classifier due to receiving the best accuracy on training dataset after applying Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest Classifier, Naive Bayes Classifier, and Logistic regression.