In the estimation of the causal effect under linear Structural Causal Models (SCMs), it is common practice to first identify the causal structure, estimate the probability distributions, and then calculate the causal effect. However, if the goal is to estimate the causal effect, it is not necessary to fix a single causal structure or probability distributions. In this paper, we first show from a Bayesian perspective that it is Bayes optimal to weight (average) the causal effects estimated under each model rather than estimating the causal effect under a fixed single model. This idea is also known as Bayesian model averaging. Although the Bayesian model averaging is optimal, as the number of candidate models increases, the weighting calculations become computationally hard. We develop an approximation to the Bayes optimal estimator by using Gaussian scale mixture distributions.

As transparency becomes key for robotics and AI, it will be necessary to evaluate the methods through which transparency is provided, including automatically generated natural language (NL) explanations. Here, we explore parallels between the generation of such explanations and the much-studied field of evaluation of Natural Language Generation (NLG). Specifically, we investigate which of the NLG evaluation measures map well to explanations. We present the ExBAN corpus: a crowd-sourced corpus of NL explanations for Bayesian Networks. We run correlations comparing human subjective ratings with NLG automatic measures. We find that embedding-based automatic NLG evaluation methods, such as BERTScore and BLEURT, have a higher correlation with human ratings, compared to word-overlap metrics, such as BLEU and ROUGE. This work has implications for Explainable AI and transparent robotic and autonomous systems.

Infants acquire words and phonemes from unsegmented speech signals using segmentation cues, such as distributional, prosodic, and co-occurrence cues. Many pre-existing computational models that represent the process tend to focus on distributional or prosodic cues. This paper proposes a nonparametric Bayesian probabilistic generative model called the prosodic hierarchical Dirichlet process-hidden language model (Prosodic HDP-HLM). Prosodic HDP-HLM, an extension of HDP-HLM, considers both prosodic and distributional cues within a single integrative generative model. We conducted three experiments on different types of datasets, and demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results show that the Prosodic DAA successfully uses prosodic cues and outperforms a method that solely uses distributional cues. The main contributions of this study are as follows: 1) We develop a probabilistic generative model for time series data including prosody that potentially has a double articulation structure; 2) We propose the Prosodic DAA by deriving the inference procedure for Prosodic HDP-HLM and show that Prosodic DAA can discover words directly from continuous human speech signals using statistical information and prosodic information in an unsupervised manner; 3) We show that prosodic cues contribute to word segmentation more in naturally distributed case words, i.e., they follow Zipf's law.

Diabetes is currently one of the most common, dangerous, and costly diseases in the world that is caused by an increase in blood sugar or a decrease in insulin in the body. Diabetes can have detrimental effects on people's health if diagnosed late. Today, diabetes has become one of the challenges for health and government officials. Prevention is a priority, and taking care of people's health without compromising their comfort is an essential need. In this study, the Ensemble training methodology based on genetic algorithms are used to accurately diagnose and predict the outcomes of diabetes mellitus. In this study, we use the experimental data, real data on Indian diabetics on the University of California website. Current developments in ICT, such as the Internet of Things, machine learning, and data mining, allow us to provide health strategies with more intelligent capabilities to accurately predict the outcomes of the disease in daily life and the hospital and prevent the progression of this disease and it's many complications. The results show the high performance of the proposed method in diagnosing the disease, which has reached 98.8%, and 99% accuracy in this study.

Building a humanlike integrative artificial cognitive system, that is, an artificial general intelligence, is one of the goals in artificial intelligence and developmental robotics. Furthermore, a computational model that enables an artificial cognitive system to achieve cognitive development will be an excellent reference for brain and cognitive science. This paper describes the development of a cognitive architecture using probabilistic generative models (PGMs) to fully mirror the human cognitive system. The integrative model is called a whole-brain PGM (WB-PGM). It is both brain-inspired and PGMbased. In this paper, the process of building the WB-PGM and learning from the human brain to build cognitive architectures is described.

Diagnosis of chronic diseases and assistance in medical decisions is based on machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we review the classification algorithms used in the health care system (chronic diseases) and present the neural network-based Ensemble learning method. We briefly describe the commonly used algorithms and describe their critical properties. Materials and Methods: In this study, modern classification algorithms used in healthcare, examine the principles of these methods and guidelines, and to accurately diagnose and predict chronic diseases, superior machine learning algorithms with the neural network-based ensemble learning Is used. To do this, we use experimental data, real data on chronic patients (diabetes, heart, cancer) available on the UCI site. Results: We found that group algorithms designed to diagnose chronic diseases can be more effective than baseline algorithms. It also identifies several challenges to further advancing the classification of machine learning in the diagnosis of chronic diseases. Conclusion: The results show the high performance of the neural network-based Ensemble learning approach for the diagnosis and prediction of chronic diseases, which in this study reached 98.5, 99, and 100% accuracy, respectively.

Motivated by the rising abundance of observational data with continuous treatments, we investigate the problem of estimating the average dose-response curve (ADRF). Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, and previous attempts in leveraging neural network to enhance model expressiveness relied on partitioning continuous treatment into blocks and using separate heads for each block; this however produces in practice discontinuous ADRFs. Therefore, the question of how to adapt the structure and training of neural network to estimate ADRFs remains open. This paper makes two important contributions. First, we propose a novel varying coefficient neural network (VCNet) that improves model expressiveness while preserving continuity of the estimated ADRF. Second, to improve finite sample performance, we generalize targeted regularization to obtain a doubly robust estimator of the whole ADRF curve. Continuous treatments arise in many fields, including healthcare, public policy, and economics. With the widespread accumulation of observational data, estimating the average dose-response function (ADRF) while correcting for confounders has become an important problem (Hirano & Imbens, 2004; Imai & Van Dyk, 2004; Kennedy et al., 2017; Fong et al., 2018). Recently, papers in causal inference (Johansson et al., 2016; Alaa & van der Schaar, 2017; Shalit et al., 2017; Schwab et al., 2019; Farrell et al., 2018; Shi et al., 2019) have utilized feed forward neural network for modeling.

Bug reports (BR) contain vital information that can help triaging teams prioritize and assign bugs to developers who will provide the fixes. However, studies have shown that BR fields often contain incorrect information that need to be reassigned, which delays the bug fixing process. There exist approaches for predicting whether a BR field should be reassigned or not. These studies use mainly BR descriptions and traditional machine learning algorithms (SVM, KNN, etc.). As such, they do not fully benefit from the sequential order of information in BR data, such as function call sequences in BR stack traces, which may be valuable for improving the prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, called EnHMM, for predicting the reassignment of BR fields using ensemble Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), trained on stack traces. EnHMM leverages the natural ability of HMMs to represent sequential data to model the temporal order of function calls in BR stack traces. When applied to Eclipse and Gnome BR repositories, EnHMM achieves an average precision, recall, and F-measure of 54%, 76%, and 60% on Eclipse dataset and 41%, 69%, and 51% on Gnome dataset. We also found that EnHMM improves over the best single HMM by 36% for Eclipse and 76% for Gnome. Finally, when comparing EnHMM to Im.ML.KNN, a recent approach in the field, we found that the average F-measure score of EnHMM improves the average F-measure of Im.ML.KNN by 6.80% and improves the average recall of Im.ML.KNN by 36.09%. However, the average precision of EnHMM is lower than that of Im.ML.KNN (53.93% as opposed to 56.71%).

Effective communication is an important skill for enabling information exchange in multi-agent settings and emergent communication is now a vibrant field of research, with common settings involving discrete cheap-talk channels. Since, by definition, these settings involve arbitrary encoding of information, typically they do not allow for the learned protocols to generalize beyond training partners. In contrast, in this work, we present a novel problem setting and the Quasi-Equivalence Discovery (QED) algorithm that allows for zero-shot coordination (ZSC), i.e., discovering protocols that can generalize to independently trained agents. Real world problem settings often contain costly communication channels, e.g., robots have to physically move their limbs, and a non-uniform distribution over intents. We show that these two factors lead to unique optimal ZSC policies in referential games, where agents use the energy cost of the messages to communicate intent. Other-Play was recently introduced for learning optimal ZSC policies, but requires prior access to the symmetries of the problem. Instead, QED can iteratively discovers the symmetries in this setting and converges to the optimal ZSC policy.

The development of recommender systems that optimize multi-turn interaction with users, and model the interactions of different agents (e.g., users, content providers, vendors) in the recommender ecosystem have drawn increasing attention in recent years. Developing and training models and algorithms for such recommenders can be especially difficult using static datasets, which often fail to offer the types of counterfactual predictions needed to evaluate policies over extended horizons. To address this, we develop RecSim NG, a probabilistic platform for the simulation of multi-agent recommender systems. RecSim NG is a scalable, modular, differentiable simulator implemented in Edward2 and TensorFlow. It offers: a powerful, general probabilistic programming language for agent-behavior specification; tools for probabilistic inference and latent-variable model learning, backed by automatic differentiation and tracing; and a TensorFlow-based runtime for running simulations on accelerated hardware. We describe RecSim NG and illustrate how it can be used to create transparent, configurable, end-to-end models of a recommender ecosystem, complemented by a small set of simple use cases that demonstrate how RecSim NG can help both researchers and practitioners easily develop and train novel algorithms for recommender systems.