The computational cost of usual Monte Carlo methods for sampling a posteriori laws in Bayesian inference scales linearly with the number of data points. One option to reduce it to a fraction of this cost is to resort to mini-batching in conjunction with unadjusted discretizations of Langevin dynamics, in which case only a random fraction of the data is used to estimate the gradient. However, this leads to an additional noise in the dynamics and hence a bias on the invariant measure which is sampled by the Markov chain. We advocate using the so-called Adaptive Langevin dynamics, which is a modification of standard inertial Langevin dynamics with a dynamical friction which automatically corrects for the increased noise arising from mini-batching. We investigate the practical relevance of the assumptions underpinning Adaptive Langevin (constant covariance for the estimation of the gradient), which are not satisfied in typical models of Bayesian inference; and show how to extend the approach to more general situations.

The evolution of electronic media is a mixed blessing. Due to the easy access, low cost, and faster reach of the information, people search out and devour news from online social networks. In contrast, the increasing acceptance of social media reporting leads to the spread of fake news. This is a minacious problem that causes disputes and endangers societal stability and harmony. Fake news spread has gained attention from researchers due to its vicious nature. proliferation of misinformation in all media, from the internet to cable news, paid advertising and local news outlets, has made it essential for people to identify the misinformation and sort through the facts. Researchers are trying to analyze the credibility of information and curtail false information on such platforms. Credibility is the believability of the piece of information at hand. Analyzing the credibility of fake news is challenging due to the intent of its creation and the polychromatic nature of the news. In this work, we propose a model for detecting fake news. Our method investigates the content of the news at the early stage i.e. when the news is published but is yet to be disseminated through social media. Our work interprets the content with automatic feature extraction and the relevance of the text pieces. In summary, we introduce stance as one of the features along with the content of the article and employ the pre-trained contextualized word embeddings BERT to obtain the state-of-art results for fake news detection. The experiment conducted on the real-world dataset indicates that our model outperforms the previous work and enables fake news detection with an accuracy of 95.32%.

Reinforcement learning (RL) can be used to create a decision-making agent for autonomous driving. However, previous approaches provide only black-box solutions, which do not offer information on how confident the agent is about its decisions. An estimate of both the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty of the agent's decisions is fundamental for real-world applications of autonomous driving. Therefore, this paper introduces the Ensemble Quantile Networks (EQN) method, which combines distributional RL with an ensemble approach, to obtain a complete uncertainty estimate. The distribution over returns is estimated by learning its quantile function implicitly, which gives the aleatoric uncertainty, whereas an ensemble of agents is trained on bootstrapped data to provide a Bayesian estimation of the epistemic uncertainty. A criterion for classifying which decisions that have an unacceptable uncertainty is also introduced. The results show that the EQN method can balance risk and time efficiency in different occluded intersection scenarios, by considering the estimated aleatoric uncertainty. Furthermore, it is shown that the trained agent can use the epistemic uncertainty information to identify situations that the agent has not been trained for and thereby avoid making unfounded, potentially dangerous, decisions outside of the training distribution.

Understanding the behavior of learned classifiers is an important task, and various black-box explanations, logical reasoning approaches, and model-specific methods have been proposed. In this paper, we introduce probabilistic sufficient explanations, which formulate explaining an instance of classification as choosing the "simplest" subset of features such that only observing those features is "sufficient" to explain the classification. That is, sufficient to give us strong probabilistic guarantees that the model will behave similarly when all features are observed under the data distribution. In addition, we leverage tractable probabilistic reasoning tools such as probabilistic circuits and expected predictions to design a scalable algorithm for finding the desired explanations while keeping the guarantees intact. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm in finding sufficient explanations, and showcase its advantages compared to Anchors and logical explanations.

This paper presents a computational framework that generates ensemble predictive mechanics models with uncertainty quantification (UQ). We first develop a causal discovery algorithm to infer causal relations among time-history data measured during each representative volume element (RVE) simulation through a directed acyclic graph (DAG). With multiple plausible sets of causal relationships estimated from multiple RVE simulations, the predictions are propagated in the derived causal graph while using a deep neural network equipped with dropout layers as a Bayesian approximation for uncertainty quantification. We select two representative numerical examples (traction-separation laws for frictional interfaces, elastoplasticity models for granular assembles) to examine the accuracy and robustness of the proposed causal discovery method for the common material law predictions in civil engineering applications.

Imitation learning seeks to circumvent the difficulty in designing proper reward functions for training agents by utilizing expert behavior. With environments modeled as Markov Decision Processes (MDP), most of the existing imitation algorithms are contingent on the availability of expert demonstrations in the same MDP as the one in which a new imitation policy is to be learned. In this paper, we study the problem of how to imitate tasks when there exist discrepancies between the expert and agent MDP. These discrepancies across domains could include differing dynamics, viewpoint, or morphology; we present a novel framework to learn correspondences across such domains. Importantly, in contrast to prior works, we use unpaired and unaligned trajectories containing only states in the expert domain, to learn this correspondence. We utilize a cycle-consistency constraint on both the state space and a domain agnostic latent space to do this. In addition, we enforce consistency on the temporal position of states via a normalized position estimator function, to align the trajectories across the two domains. Once this correspondence is found, we can directly transfer the demonstrations on one domain to the other and use it for imitation. Experiments across a wide variety of challenging domains demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.

Neural topic models have triggered a surge of interest in extracting topics from text automatically since they avoid the sophisticated derivations in conventional topic models. However, scarce neural topic models incorporate the word relatedness information captured in word embedding into the modeling process. To address this issue, we propose a novel topic modeling approach, called Variational Gaussian Topic Model (VaGTM). Based on the variational auto-encoder, the proposed VaGTM models each topic with a multivariate Gaussian in decoder to incorporate word relatedness. Furthermore, to address the limitation that pre-trained word embeddings of topic-associated words do not follow a multivariate Gaussian, Variational Gaussian Topic Model with Invertible neural Projections (VaGTM-IP) is extended from VaGTM. Three benchmark text corpora are used in experiments to verify the effectiveness of VaGTM and VaGTM-IP. The experimental results show that VaGTM and VaGTM-IP outperform several competitive baselines and obtain more coherent topics.

Research in Cognitive Science suggests that humans understand and represent knowledge of the world through causal relationships. In addition to observations, they can rely on experimenting and counterfactual reasoning -- i.e. referring to an alternative course of events -- to identify causal relations and explain atypical situations. Different instances of control systems, such as smart homes, would benefit from having a similar causal model, as it would help the user understand the logic of the system and better react when needed. However, while data-driven methods achieve high levels of correlation detection, they mainly fall short of finding causal relations, notably being limited to observations only. Notably, they struggle to identify the cause from the effect when detecting a correlation between two variables. This paper introduces a new way to learn causal models from a mixture of experiments on the environment and observational data. The core of our method is the use of selected interventions, especially our learning takes into account the variables where it is impossible to intervene, unlike other approaches. The causal model we obtain is then used to generate Causal Bayesian Networks, which can be later used to perform diagnostic and predictive inference. We use our method on a smart home simulation, a use case where knowing causal relations pave the way towards explainable systems. Our algorithm succeeds in generating a Causal Bayesian Network close to the simulation's ground truth causal interactions, showing encouraging prospects for application in real-life systems.

This paper is concerned with regularized extensions of hierarchical non-stationary temporal Gaussian processes (NSGPs) in which the parameters (e.g., length-scale) are modeled as GPs. In particular, we consider two commonly used NSGP constructions which are based on explicitly constructed non-stationary covariance functions and stochastic differential equations, respectively. We extend these NSGPs by including $L^1$-regularization on the processes in order to induce sparseness. To solve the resulting regularized NSGP (R-NSGP) regression problem we develop a method based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) and we also analyze its convergence properties theoretically. We also evaluate the performance of the proposed methods in simulated and real-world datasets.

Perhaps surprisingly, it appears that despite its extensive usage, seemingly no guidelines exist regarding when moving to the lazy version is appropriate. In this paper we make a first step towards a characterization of such scenarios, beginning with Markov chains statistical estimation and testing problems. Parallel to this work, Chan et al. [2021] gave a unified treatment of Markov chains estimation and testing problems in the single trajectory setting, based on the works of Wolfer and Kontorovich mentioned above. Their results hold for irreducible Markov chains and this was achieved by replacing the pseudo spectral gap, which is defined only for ergodic Markov chains, with the cover time, which is defined for every irreducible Markov chains. They then used deep results that connect the cover time with the blanket time.